College Football Power Rankings: Ferringo 15
by Robert Ferringo - 10/30/2013
Ouch!
The difference between another winning and losing week for the Ferringo 15 came down to Missouri’s epic collapse against South Carolina. Missouri was clearly the right side on that game, but the Gamecocks pulled the plug on what was becoming one of the best stories in college football.
Of course, you’ll remember who was all over the Tigers earlier this season. They were No. 3 in the original Ferringo 15 this year and have not disappointed at all. But we’ll see how they – and the rest of our list – bounces back after a 5-6 weekend.
The teams in the Ferringo 15 are 58-49 ATS in the weeks they have shown up in this space. Over the past two seasons the teams in our college football betting power rankings have gone 133-92 ATS, which is good for an outstanding 59.1 percent winning rate with 225 trials. Hopefully we can add to the resume this week.
The Ferringo 15 is my Profit-Power Rankings; a rating of the 15 teams that hold the most value in college football betting at the moment. It is a reflection of past, present, and projected future achievement against the spread in college football betting. As teams play and betting markets adjust, so to does the perceived “value” of the teams on the list. Consider the Ferringo 15 a list of stocks whose values will fluctuate based on how they perform and also how the public’s expectations for them change.
Last year no college football betting system in the country (except maybe the KING System) was a better bet in the last two months than the Ferringo 15. The F-15 turned a profit in eight of the final nine weeks of the regular season and the teams on this list went an amazing 75-43-1 against the spread. The top six teams on the Ferringo 15 were a staggering 35-11-1 ATS in the last nine weeks of the season.
Here is my 2013 Ferringo 15 College Football Power Rankings (all records are ATS against the closing line):
1. Oregon (7-1) – What should be terrifying to the rest of the country is the fact that the Ducks turned the ball over twice and had a punt blocked – yet they still won by 28 points against another Top-20 team. Oregon is in the Top 10 in scoring offense and scoring defense, which is ridiculous considering how many opportunities opponents get. Oregon is off this week before their huge showdown with Stanford next Thursday.
2. Washington State (6-2) – The Cougars were off last week, and now they get some primetime love this Thursday night. Washington State is hosting a national game against Arizona State, and this one looks like a Mike Leach special, with his double-digit underdog prepared to give ASU a run. Arizona State allows 32 points per game, and Washington State is averaging 31 points per game. Mike Leach is a stunning 20-1 ATS as an underdog when his team scores 25 or more.
3. Buffalo (6-2) – It’s a bye week for Buffalo, and they have earned it. They have a monster game with Ohio next week that will essentially decide the MAC East.
4. Wisconsin (6-0-1) – The public loves Wisconsin this week as a road favorite in Ames. But this one could turn out to be a classic Big Ten slugfest. Iowa has gotten the better of the Badgers over the past decade, winning six of the last 10 meetings and going 7-3 ATS in those matchups. Wisconsin has to be a little concerned about its defense after giving up 32 points at Illinois. The Badgers have allowed an average of just four points per game in four home games and 32 points per game in three road affairs.
5. Houston (7-0) – That was another big-time win last week for one of the last ATS unbeatens. The Cougars mauled a decent Rutgers squad. What was most impressive is that they did so right after that heartbreaking BYU loss, and that shows a lot of character. Houston has still gotten to this point by playing a cupcake schedule, and things are going to heat up in this final month. They are 17-point favorites over hapless South Florida this week. But Houston has to avoid looking ahead to next week’s huge game at Central Florida.
6. Texas Tech (6-2) – The Red Raiders were shot back down to reality last week in Norman. However, I was still impressed with how Texas Tech played in Oklahoma, and I thought they were going to sneak into the back door after trailing, 35-24. The oddsmakers still have respect for this team. The Raiders are short favorites this week against No. 18 Oklahoma State, and the favorite is 4-1 ATS in this series. Oklahoma State has won four straight and is on a 7-1 ATS run. But the home team in this shootout has gone a stellar 8-2 SU over the last decade.
7. Central Florida (6-1) – Letdown? What letdown? Granted, it was only Connecticut. But Central Florida thrashed the Huskies last week in a game where the Golden Knights could’ve easily been tripped up. Now they get a much-deserved week of rest before another crucial game against former CUSA rival Houston.
8. Tulane (6-2) – The Green Wave did it again! They have pulled four straight outright underdog upset wins. Last week they held off Tulsa 14-7, and they are bowl eligible for the first time since 2002. But they are on the road after three straight emotional home games, and they are primed for a letdown. Tulane has been outgained in each of their last three upset wins. They have also not had a bye week yet this season, and this will be their ninth straight week. How much do they have left in the tank?
9. Missouri (6-2) – It has to be nearly impossible for the Tigers to pick themselves back up after last week’s collapse. They had the SEC East title in their hands and coughed it up by being outscored 17-0 in the fourth quarter. After a three-week Georgia-Florida-South Carolina gauntlet, the Tigers have to somehow get themselves up for a game against lowly Tennessee. This one has letdown written all over it. Tennessee also has revenge for a 51-48 overtime loss to Missouri in Knoxville last year.
10. Baylor (6-1) – It is a week off for the best offense in the country. But next week they host Oklahoma on Thursday night in what will be one of the biggest games in Baylor history. They better rest up.
11. Florida Atlantic (6-1) – The Owls are actually favored this week, which is a huge red flag. Florida Atlantic is 2-6, and Tulane is 6-2. Yet FAU is laying the points? Something stinks here, and the public is biting. Over 80 percent of the early betting has come down on the side of the visitors. FAU was beaten up in the Auburn game – being outgained by nearly 400 yards – and even though they have played teams tight, they have still find ways to lose games this year. This week’s game has a big “DANGER” sign flashing above it, and I’ll sit back and let these two F-15 staples duke it out.
12. Florida State (6-1) – It is really hard to say that Florida State is still one of the most “valuable” teams in the country. But on the other hand, you can’t deny the fact that they are just wrecking people, and they have covered six of seven ATS. I think that this week is the bellwether game. These two teams always play one another tight, with just two games in the last 10 years decided by more than one score. But both of those games have come within the last three years. The underdog is 11-0 ATS in the last 11 meetings, and the road team is 6-1 ATS.
13. Ball State (6-2) – It is a half-week bye for the Cardinals. They will host Central Michigan next Wednesday. Keith Wenning is having a monster season, and Ball State has the No. 15 passing attack in the country.
14. Washington (5-3) – It was a brutal beat for Huskies backers last week. Washington absolutely dominated Cal, racking up over 640 yards of total offense, but they allowed a late fourth quarter touchdown to let the Golden Bears go in the backdoor. Washington is off this week before hosting Colorado on Nov. 9.
15. Anyone Playing Notre Dame (5-3) – The Irish kept their foot on the throat of hapless Air Force last week. And in a stroke of scheduling genius, they played one option team last week and now face a second option team in a row in Navy. The Irish absolutely demolished the Midshipmen last year in Ireland, winning 50-10 in the season opener. Notre Dame has won the last two meetings by a combined score of 106-24, and I was surprised to see Notre Dame only posted as a 17-point favorite this week.
Honorable Mention: South Alabama (5-2), UCLA (5-2), Auburn (6-2), Colorado State (5-2), Ohio (6-2), North Texas (5-2), Duke (6-2),
Robert Ferringo is a lead writer for Doc’s Sport and he is off to a strong start to the season. Robert exploded for over $2,200 in football profit with his selections two weeks ago and is looking for a big bounce back week. Robert will have a pair of 5-Unit Plays this weekend and has posted 28 of 43 winning football months. Take advantage of our free, no-strings-attached $60 credit to use toward a purchase of Robert’s football selections and get on this big game. CLICK HERE for $60 absolutely free!
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