College Football Power Rankings: Ferringo 15
by Robert Ferringo - 9/4/2013
It was a really nice start to the season for the Ferringo 15 last week as we picked up where we left off in 2012.
The F-15 went a solid 9-6 against the spread in Week 1 of the college season. Dating back to last year, that is now 9 of 10 winning weeks for the teams listed in my Ferringo 15 College Football Power Rankings.
The Ferringo 15 is my Profit-Power Rankings; a rating of the 15 teams that hold the most value in college football betting at the moment. It is a reflection of past, present, and projected future achievement against the spread in college football betting. As teams play and betting markets adjust, so to does the perceived “value” of the teams on the list. Consider the Ferringo 15 a list of stocks whose values will fluctuate based on how they perform and also how the public’s expectations for them change.
Last year no college football betting system in the country (except maybe the KING System) was a better bet in the last two months than the Ferringo 15. The F-15 turned a profit in eight of the final nine weeks of the regular season, and the teams on this list went an amazing 75-43-1 against the spread. The top six teams on the Ferringo 15 were a staggering 35-11-1 ATS in the last nine weeks of the season.
Add in last week’s results and the F-15 teams have gone 84-49-1 ATS the last 10 weeks. That is a 63.2 percent success rate.
It usually takes a few weeks to get locked in. The F-15’s record at the start of the season isn’t nearly as strong. But once the college football betting season gets cranking, you know this weekly column will become a must-read for anyone looking to wager.
With that in mind, here is my 2013 Ferringo 15 College Football Rankings (all records are ATS against the closing line):
1. Arizona (1-0) – The Wildcats easily dispatched of their in-state opponent Northern Arizona last week. And perhaps the best thing about that 35-0 win was the fact that the defense, the team’s weak spot entering the season, pitched a shutout and looked confident from the first snap. Arizona is a shaky road favorite at UNLV this week. But the Runnin’ Rebels just lost by 28 at middling Minnesota, so you have to wonder how confident UNLV is right now. Be wary: UNLV gave up a 51-yard blocked field goal return TD and an 89-yard INT return for a TD. Those two plays equal about a 24-point swing on the scoreboard, and UNLV actually outgained the Gophers. Arizona is just 1-5 ATS in its last six against teams from the Mountain West.
2. Missouri (1-0) –Like Arizona, I was impressed with the play of the Tigers defense. After a shaky start, they allowed less than 200 yards in the last three quarters of a blowout. Missouri is just 2-7 ATS following a win against the spread, and they are just 2-8 ATS following a straight up win. They need to handle success. The Tigers are 17-point favorites over MAC rep Toledo this week. Missouri is catching just 34 percent of the early betting in this game, though, as the public is obviously not buying into the Tigers resurgence.
3. Washington (1-0) – The Huskies bombed Boise State last week. That was as impressive as anything I watched last Saturday. The Huskies now get a bye week to regroup before taking on Big Ten rep Illinois next week in Chicago. This bye is not just crucial for the extra prep time but also to help protect against the letdown.
4. Wyoming (1-0) –I mean, I went 11-2 last week, so I can’t be too angry with myself. But I am still kicking myself for not playing Wyoming. They were literally my last play off the board. The Cowboys lost by three points as a 31-point underdog and pushed Nebraska to the limit. Now Wyoming has to adjust to a 59-point line swing as they are now 28-point favorites over Idaho. These schools met last year, and Wyoming escaped with a three-point win as a field goal road underdog. Idaho is undergoing a complete overhaul and was slammed 40-6 by North Texas last week. Wyoming will need to avoid a letdown to stay ahead of this massive number.
5. Boston College (0-1) –Villanova outplayed the Eagles for an entire half last week. That’s a bad sign for a B.C. team trying to claw its way back to respectability. The Eagles host Wake Forest this week in a game that is critical for both teams. Wake has beaten the Eagles in back-to-back seasons. But this matchup is basically a toss-up between the two ACC wannabes. Seven of the last 10 meetings between these teams has been decided by one score or less. I would expect another tight contest this Friday in Chestnut Hill.
6. Buffalo (1-0) – The Bulls were a spry underdog against overhyped Ohio State last week. Now the Bulls are back on the road, and they are again a massive dog. This time it is against Baylor, fresh off a 69-3 thrashing of Wofford. The biggest issue for the Bulls will be adjusting to the near-100 degree temperatures they will face in Texas this weekend. Also, Baylor’s speed is going to far surpass anything the Bulls are used to. Buffalo lost 34-6 here in 2010. But the Bulls are actually 4-1 in their last five games as an underdog of four touchdowns or more.
7. Ohio (0-1) –I’m not going to crush the Bobcats for getting smoked by Louisville. They now have three home games, including an interesting game next week against Marshall, and then a bye week before a manageable Akron-Central Michigan-Eastern Michigan roll. So there is a great chance that the Bobcats get hot and work their way to 7-1. How will their value hold? The Bobcats are a short favorite at home against a Sun Belt team this week. Ohio is 5-2 ATS in their last seven nonconference games, and their opponent, North Texas, is just 4-18 ATS after a win.
8. Marshall (1-0) –The Thundering Herd absolutely annihilated Miami, OH last week, hanging 591 yards and 52 points on the Redhawks. They could match those numbers this week against FBS foe Gardner-Webb. Marshall has been installed as a 42-point favorite in this week’s contest. They failed to cover as 29-point favorites over Western Carolina last season.
9. Indiana (1-0) –Well, some of the value is obviously gone from the Hoosiers. That’s what happens when you ring up 73 points in your season-opening game and when you beat the spread by over three touchdowns. The Hoosiers now have a revenge game against Navy this week. They lost, but covered, on the road against the Middies last year. Indiana blew a nine-point lead in the final six minutes to fall, 31-30. The books are obviously expecting revenge, posting IU as a healthy 13.5-point favorite. Indiana’s up-tempo offense will obviously give the weak Navy secondary fits. But IU won’t cover this line if the defense can’t get off the field against Navy’s option attack. Via PB: Indiana is 22-2 ATS when they win a game as a favorite with revenge. That’s a solid angle right there.
10. Oklahoma State (1-0) –It wasn’t pretty, but it was effective. Oklahoma State’s defense took center stage in their 21-3 win over Mississippi State. But the storyline this week is that Mike Gundy is going with J.W. Walsh as his starter. I think it’s the right choice and that Walsh will do a good job of avoiding costly mistakes. He will have to be careful this week on the road against a very experienced Texas-San Antonio squad that burned a lot of sharp bettors last week by dominating New Mexico on the road. UTSA has covered five straight games. But the Cowboys are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 nonconference game and are 5-3 ATS as a favorite of 27 points or more. They are 10-5 ATS as a favorite of 21 or more and could lay into one here.
11. Anyone Playing Notre Dame (1-0) – The Irish got off to a fast start against Temple last week but eased up considerably. They showed some weakness defensively, but on the whole the Irish dominated. That said, they didn’t cover the spread against a really pathetic Owls team, and the Irish are now 2-4 ATS in their last six games. This week’s game at Michigan will have a lot of emotion behind it. This is a revenge spot for the Wolverines. But Michigan will also want to put an exclamation point on this rivalry, which Notre Dame has chosen to discontinue. This has been an underdog series, with the points holding up in seven of the last nine meetings.
12. Auburn (0-1) –Auburn coach Gus Malzahn will be taking on a bunch of familiar faces this week as the Tigers host Arkansas State. Malzahn made a cameo as the ASU coach last year, and he should know exactly how to attack his former team. Arkansas State rushed for over 500 yards last week against Arkansas-Pine Bluff. I’m just sayin’. Auburn was a little shaky in Malzahn’s debut last week. But in this game we have two teams running similar offensive systems. So clearly the advantage goes to the team with the far superior athletes. Auburn is just 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games, and they are just 2-5 ATS against Sun Belt foes.
13. Iowa (0-1) – I’ll give Iowa one last shot. Then I will be firmly planted in the “Kirk Ferentz must go” camp. Iowa has now lost seven straight games, going 1-6 ATS in those tilts. Even though Northern Illinois technically did play in a BCS bowl game last year that is still not a game that Iowa should lose at home. The 27 points from the offense were encouraging. Iowa is a 24-point favorite this week. They have rival Iowa State on deck. But after falling to a team from the MAC last week, I doubt Ferentz and his charges are looking ahead.
14. South Carolina (1-0) –Despite an impressive effort against North Carolina, and in spite of Georgia’s meltdown at Clemson, the Gamecocks are underdogs this weekend when they head to Athens for an important SEC East showdown. South Carolina has beaten Georgia three straight times, and they are an outstanding 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. The USC defense is much better than what UGA saw in Clemson last week. And South Carolina’s offense is almost equally effective, albeit in a completely different way, as the Tigers’. The public appears split on this game, and the spread will hold around 3.0 or 3.5. But I think it is clear who the better team is in this one.
15. Wake Forest (0-1) – Wake’s small defensive line will be tested by Boston College’s offensive line this weekend. But the Wake-B.C. game is really going to just come down to a fourth-quarter duel between Chase Rettig and Tanner Price. The Demon Deacons are just 8-17 ATS in their last 25 road games, and they are 0-6 ATS against a team with a winning record.
Honorable Mention: South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Texas, Georgia Tech, UAB, Cincinnati, and UNLV.
Robert Ferringo is a lead writer for Doc’s Sports and a member of the Football Writer’s Association of American. He has earned over $10,000 in profit for his clients over the last 16 football months. He went 7-2 last week with his NFL preseason selections and this week, for the first time ever, Robert will release selections from his incredible KING College Football Betting System. (Learn more HERE.) We are so confident that you will be amazed by this moneymaking system we are going to give you a free, no-strings-attached $60 credit to use toward a purchase of Robert’s football selections. CLICK HERE for $60 absolutely free!
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