College Football Power Rankings: Ferringo 15
by Robert Ferringo - 10/9/2013
Another week, another winner.
The Ferringo 15 went 8-5 against the spread last week for yet another profitable venture. These plays have now turned a profit in 12 of the last 15 weeks going back to last year and are off to an awesome start this season.
The teams in the Ferringo 15 are hitting at a nearly 60 percent clip so far this season, going 45-31 ATS. Over the past two seasons the teams in our college football betting power rankings have gone 120-74 ATS, which is good for a spectacular 61.9 percent winning rate. We will see if they can keep up the pace this week.
The Ferringo 15 is my Profit-Power Rankings, a rating of the 15 teams that hold the most value in college football betting at the moment. It is a reflection of past, present, and projected future achievement against the spread in college football. As teams play and betting markets adjust, so to does the perceived “value” of the teams on the list. Consider the Ferringo 15 a list of stocks whose values will fluctuate based on how they perform and also how the public’s expectations for them change.
Last year no college football betting system in the country (except maybe the KING System) was a better bet in the last two months than the Ferringo 15. The F-15 turned a profit in eight of the final nine weeks of the regular season, and the teams on this list went an amazing 75-43-1 against the spread. The top six teams on the Ferringo 15 were a staggering 35-11-1 ATS in the last nine weeks of the season.
Here is my 2013 Ferringo 15 College Football Power Rankings (all records are ATS against the closing line):
1. Oregon (5-0) – It is rare that you see one side dominate a rivalry so thoroughly, but Oregon has gone an amazing 9-0 straight up and ATS in the last nine meetings with Washington. That includes a 52-21 demolition last year and a convincing 34-17 win in Seattle back in 2011. Oregon’s margin of victory in those nine wins is a gaudy 25.9 points per game, so I expected the Ducks to be favored by more than two touchdowns this weekend. The Ducks are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games, 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 conference games, and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall. They are the best bet in college football and have been for two years now.
2. Washington State (5-1) – Mike Leach has been cashing tickets for backers for years, so no one should be surprised that he’s getting the job done for Wazzou this year. How much have the markets responded to the new Washington State? Well in 2008 the Cougars were 30-point underdogs to this week’s opponents, Oregon State. That was followed by years of +31, +24, +3 and then +16 last year. The Cougars are favored in this series for the first time since 2007, when they lost 52-17 at home.
3. Washington (5-0) – Washington has been my No. 1 team in the Ferringo 15 for several weeks now. But I couldn’t believe that they were catching just 14 points this weekend against Oregon. That tells me that their value has been diluted a little bit and that the Ducks actually have the upper hand. You generally want to look at taking the points in any big rivalry. But the puppy is just 3-12-1 ATS in the last 16 Oregon-Washington matchups.
4. Anyone Playing Notre Dame (5-1) – The Irish have slugged their way through perhaps the most difficult schedule in the country so far. They get a week off before hosting Notre Dame. While that is the last marquee game for the Irish until a Nov. 30 trip to Stanford, I actually think the betting value against Notre Dame will actually increase as they play lesser opponents. It is going to be hard for the Irish to get “up” for Air Force after tangling with Michigan, Oklahoma, Arizona State and USC to start the year.
5. Missouri (4-1) – It should surprise no one that the Tigers are the only team in the SEC on this list since the conference is the most overrated and overvalued in the country. The Tigers have played only one SEC opponent so far this year, winning 51-28 at Vanderbilt. Now the Tigers have a revenge game against a beat-up Georgia team. The Bulldogs have lost several key offensive players and may take the Tigers lightly. Missouri lost 41-20 to Georgia last year. But the score was just 24-20 entering the fourth quarter, and Missouri actually had a 17-9 lead midway through the third quarter.
6. Wyoming (4-1) – Wyoming’s No. 116-ranked rush defense will be tested early and often this week by visiting New Mexico. The Lobos have the No. 1 ground game in college football and are facing a Cowboys unit that was gashed for 256 yards its last time out. The home team is just 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series, and Wyoming is just 1-4 ATS against New Mexico. However, Wyoming is 7-0 ATS against below-.500 teams and have had extra time to prepare.
7. Bowling Green (4-2) – We’ll find out just where the Falcons stack up this weekend when they head down to SEC country. Fellow MAC leader Ball State laid a beating into ACC also-ran Virginia last week, so it’s not improbable for a mid-major surprise. That said, Bowling Green was embarrassed 42-10 at Indiana earlier this season. Mississippi State has blowout wins over Alcorn State and Troy, but they have been manhandled in their three games against BCS opponents. The Falcons are on an 11-4 ATS run, and we’ll see if they can keep it going.
8. Baylor (4-0) – Darwin Cook’s 32-yard pick-six with three minutes left prevented Baylor backers from taking a bad beat last week. (Try saying that three times fast!) Baylor was up 56-14 at halftime against West Virginia, and the Bears scored 80 or more points for the third straight week. They are “just” 17-point favorites this week at Kansas State. But the Wildcats are always tough in Manhattan, and the host is 4-1 ATS in this series. The underdog is 5-1 ATS, and K-State is a stellar 20-9-1 ATS in its last 30 games. Baylor is now on a 19-7 ATS charge, and they are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games against below-.500 opponents.
9. Marshall (4-1) – The Thundering Herd take their show on the road this week for the third time this year. They dropped their previous two road games, losing at Ohio by three and at Virginia Tech in overtime. Tech outgained Marshall. But they have outgained their other four opponents by a whopping 240 yards per game. Florida Atlantic is playing just its second home game of the season, and they are 5-1 ATS this year in their own right. The Herd compares very favorably to the East Carolina team that beat FAU 31-13, but they allowed the Owls to sneak in the backdoor.
10. Texas Tech (5-0) – Baker Mayfield, the walk-on quarterback that had been running and gunning for the Raiders through the first month of the season, is out this week. Davis Webb, the backup, has thrown 70 passes and has six touchdowns. But he is a major step back for the No. 3 pass offense in the country. And now the Red Raiders are taking on an Iowa State team off a heartbreaking home loss to Texas last week. The Cyclones are always spry as an underdog and are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 road games. But the favorite in this series is 7-2 ATS, and the Red Raiders are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against a below-.500 team.
11. Maryland (4-1) – C.J. Brown suffered a concussion thanks to a vicious hit last week. That kind of sums up Maryland’s entire effort in its 63-0 bloodbath at Florida State last week. They are back home to lick their wounds against struggling Virginia – also off an embarrassing blowout loss, to Ball State – but Brown is questionable to play. I don’t trust the Terps without their ringleader, and I will be stunned if Brown is under center on Saturday. Maryland said it would make an announcement about his status on Thursday.
12. Central Florida (4-1) – The Golden Knights have a week off before their biggest game of the season: a Friday night date with Louisville up in Kentucky. UCF fell victim to a letdown/look-ahead situation in Memphis last weekend, needing a miracle final two minutes to hold off plucky Memphis last weekend.
13. Ohio (4-1) – I know that Akron stinks, but that was still impressive for Ohio to go on the road and control a game against an in-state rival like that. That is now four straight ATS wins and back-to-back blowouts by 38 and 40 points. Ohio faces three straight terrible MAC teams – Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan and Miami-OH – over the next three weeks. We will see how they fare as massive favorites in those games, but I think their value is waning.
14. Arizona (2-2) – The Wildcats travel to USC this week for a primetime showdown on Thursday night. Arizona has had two weeks to prepare for this one and has clearly had the upper hand in this series in recent years, going a remarkable 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. That is the most ATS wins for any Pac-12 team against the Trojans during that time. However, the Wildcats may be walking into a buzz saw. USC is playing its first game since Loser Lane Kiffin was axed. They will likely give their most inspired effort of the season to date.
15. Florida Atlantic (5-1) – The Owls steal the final spot on our list mainly because their hot streak has stretched over the past two years. Florida Atlantic has gone 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games overall, and they have been very competitive against a tricky schedule this year. This team is an OT loss to Middle Tennessee and a late fourth-quarter meltdown (gave up two TDs in the final four minutes) against Rice away from having a four-game winning streak. The Owls are No. 35 in defense, and they may be doing things with smoke and mirrors, but they are getting it done.
Honorable Mention: Houston (4-0); Louisville (3-2); Florida State (4-1), Wisconsin (4-0); Ohio State (4-1); Minnesota (3-1), Ball State (4-1), Colorado State (4-1), UCLA (4-0).
Robert Ferringo is a lead writer for Doc’s Sports and a member of the Football Writer’s Association of American. He has earned over $11,000 in profit for his clients over the last 17 football months. This week Robert will release selections from his incredible KING College Football Betting System. (Learn more HERE.) He also has a 6-UNIT COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME OF THE MONTH THIS WEEKEND! We are so confident that you will be amazed by this moneymaking system we are going to give you a free, no-strings-attached $60 credit to use toward a purchase of Robert’s football selections. CLICK HERE for $60 absolutely free!
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