Back to the Futures: Country-Club Sports Ready for 2013 Swansong
by Ricky Dimon - 8/20/2013
Football is close to taking over. With the exception of October when the MLB playoffs steal some of the limelight, September through next January will be all about pigskin, pigskin, and more pigskin. For a few more weeks, though, golf and tennis will have their respective days in the sun. On the links, the FedEx Cup Playoffs begin on Thursday with The Barclays. On the court, the U.S. Open kicks off on Monday in New York City.
Odds provided by Sportsbook.ag.
NFL passing yards
Drew Brees, Saints (+400) – One year removed from “bountygate” and once again armed with their full team, the Saints may hold nothing back in 2013. A bad defense means New Orleans will likely have to air it out on the other side of the ball, just as it did last season (Brees’ 670 attempts were well ahead of anyone other than Matthew Stafford).
Aaron Rodgers, Packers (+600) – Aside from its staple at quarterback, the Green Bay offense has been going through some transitions in recent years. Randall Cobb was a breakout star in his second season (80 receptions) and continued improvement will help Rodgers chances. Rodgers has never attempted more than 552 passes, which only put him 10th in that category in 2012.
Matthew Stafford, Lions (+650) – Of the quarterbacks who have a good chance of leading the league in this category, Stafford may be on the worst team. That’s why he topped the NFL charts—by a mile—in pass attempts in 2012, and he may do it again. Lots of attempts plus Calvin Johnson at receiver automatically means a boatload of yards.
Peyton Manning, Broncos (+700) – Manning was sixth in passing yards last year but second in yards per attempt behind Robert Griffin III. He may not get enough attempts this season, too, because Denver is expected to be great and will be content to run the ball while playing with leads. On the positive side, Manning has Wes Welker at his disposal this time around.
Big 12
Texas (+400) – According to the odds, the Big 12 is the most up-for-grabs of all the BCS conferences in college football. Last season it was a two-horse race between Kansas State and Oklahoma, but it promises to be a free-for-all in 2013. The Longhorns are loaded at running back, but it will be up to unproven QB David Ash to get them over the hump.
Oklahoma State (+600) – Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon are more than a year into their professional careers, and now it is running back Joseph Randle who needs to be replaced. That job goes to Jeremy Smith, who will be part of an inexperienced backfield—quarterback included. OSU’s defense is mediocre, which is good by Big 12 standards.
Oklahoma (+600) – Normally the Sooners are +600 to win the National Championship. Now they are +600 to win their own conference. Landry Jones is gone, so the pressure is on quarterback Blake Bell to keep OU relevant on the national scene and even in the Big 12.
TCU (+1000) – The Horned Frogs’ first season in their new conference ended with a 4-5 record (tied for fifth). A year of experience should help, and TCU actually plays defense—a novelty in the Big 12. This seems to be a year in which simply being well-rounded could be enough.
The Barclays
Tiger Woods (+140) – The FedEx Cup Playoffs begin this week. They may be playoffs, but they aren’t majors. That’s good news for Tiger, who has been his old dominant self at smaller events but relatively hopeless on the big stage.
Adam Scott (+275) – Arguably the most consistent player in the world right now, Scott contended at all four slams this year and won the Masters. The Aussie is coming off a T-5 finish at the PGA Championship.
Phil Mickelson (+275) – In Mickelson’s last nine events he has five Top-3 finishes, including a win at the British Open. Lefty slumped at the PGA, but that came at the end of an exhausting stretch, and almost two full weeks off should help him recharge his batteries.
Rory McIlroy (+400) – By McIlory’s standards, he has been positively dreadful in 2013. There are, however, some encouraging signs. The Northern Irishman finished T-27 earlier this month at Bridgestone and his best tournament in many, many weeks came at the PGA (T-8).
U.S. Open
Novak Djokovic (+175) – Djokovic lost in straight sets to Andy Murray in the Wimbledon final, and he did not play particularly well at recent Masters events in Montreal and Cincinnati, but he has been to the final (and won four) of the last six hard-court Grand Slams. An on-fire Rafael Nadal has moved up to No. 2 in the world, so Djokovic cannot face him until the U.S. Open title match.
Andy Murray (+275) – Murray captured his first major title last year in New York, and he snagged his second—amidst even more pressure—this summer at Wimbledon. The Scot is a different player now, but as the third seed he may have to go through both Djokovic and Nadal during his title defense.
Rafael Nadal (+275) – What a difference two weeks make. Nadal had lost in the Wimbledon first round, raising concerns about his knees and his ability to ever play again on anything other than grass. Now he is a back-to-back champion in Montreal and Cincinnati (both on hard courts), where he powered his way to wins over Djokovic, Roger Federer, and Juan Martin Del Potro.
Juan Martin Del Potro (+1000) – Del Potro was brilliant at Wimbledon, reaching the semis and losing a five-set thriller to Djokovic. Health concerns are there, but it’s clear what the 2009 U.S. Open champion and recent Cincinnati semifinalist can do when he’s 100 percent. Federer, meanwhile, is the fifth choice at +1200 before a huge drop to Cincinnati runner-up John Isner at No. 6 (+3300).
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