Weekly Sports Betting Hot/Cold List
by Nolan Sinclair - Strike Point Sports - 1/31/2012
I have three questions that I need answered before I get to my weekly Hot/Cold List:
First, why are NBA teams playing so poorly? I know that they didn’t have a full preseason and I know that the lockout took a toll on the players. But these are the best basketball players in the world, right? I mean, we still have most of the same guys that we had the year before didn’t we? Do Josh Childress, Kenyon Martin, and Wilson Chandler really have that dramatic an effect on the scoring in the NBA? Someone call China and get these guys back here.
Second, why don’t more sports adopt the NHL all-star draft policy? I love the way the NHL does this. They have an “old school, school-yard, captains pick teams, all-star draft.” This is what real life is about. The best get picked first, and the worst sit and wait for their name to hopefully be called, self-esteem be damned.
My third and final question, why don’t all sports use the relegation system that English Premier League uses? I actually know the answer to this one, as the EPL is really the only league set up where there are lower tiers. The MLB has its farm clubs, but you aren’t going to bring up the Yankees farm club to play against the Yankees. I know this one is an easy answer, but I truly love the way the EPL and the relegation system works. Again, it is an “old school” way of thinking, which in my mind is the right way of thinking.
THE COLD LIST
10. NBA Teams vs. the Total – This is similar to No. 2 on the cold list, but it definitely needed its own number. The League only has seven teams out of 30 that are above .500 versus the total on the year. Out of those seven, three are only one game over .500. The NBA only has three teams averaging more than 100 points per game. This is down from 11 from last year. You know what they say, practice makes perfect, and with this schedule, there is no time for practice.
9. Winnipeg Jets – The Jets are just 2-7 in their last nine games, and they have lost by at least two goals in four of their seven losses. Winnipeg is also 3-7 versus the total in their last 10 games. They have scored two or less goals in six of their last eight games.
8. Gronkowski’s Ankle – You know damned well that the big guy will play, but how long will that injured ankle hold up?
7. NCAA ‘Overs’ – Over the last seven days the over is winning only 39 percent of the time in non-overtime games. Out of the 223 non-overtime games last week 136 of them fell short of the total.
6. Johnny Damon, Raul Ibanez, Rick Ankiel, and Kosuke Fukudome – Why are they all on this list, you might ask? The New York Mets are said to be pursuing each one of them. Run boys; run as fast and as far away as you can.
5. The North in the NCAA Football Senior Bowl – The boys from the North are 1-3 in the last four Senior Bowls, and they have gotten outscored by an average of 16 points per game. I guess this is something else for arrogant college football fans to crow about.
4. Joe Crawford and Home teams – NBA home squads are just 4-11 ATS in games that Joe Crawford is calling the shots. The boys eating the home cooking are also scoring just 94.6-points a game and they are 6-9 versus the total. Ouch.
3. Charlotte Bobcats – MJ’s boys have lost 14 of their last 15 straight up and five in a row against the spread. Even worse, they have only scored more than 89 points four times in their last 14 games.
2. NBA Teams vs. the Spread – I know this may seem weird. How can the entire league be cold? Well, it isn’t the whole league, but the NBA only has three teams (The 76ers, Nuggets, and Mavericks) five or more games over .500 vs. the spread. Everyone else is all over the map and no one else has broken through.
1. The Pro Bowl – This game drew a 7.9 TV rating, which means it dropped 8.1 percent from last year. I have to ask, why in the world would you watch this game? Not one defensive player gives more than 20 percent. It is a 15-yard penalty if you sweat and a $100,000 fine if you blitz. Gross.
THE HOT LIST
10. Brandon Marshall – Yes, it was the Pro Bowl, and yes, no one cares. But Mr. Marshall did score four touchdowns. Was that enough to show Peyton Manning that Marshall is a good enough WR to draw Manning to Miami? (And I’m sure somewhere Matt Moore was cringing, thinking about all the touchdowns that Marshall dropped for the Dolphins this year.)
9. NBA Dogs – Over the last seven days NBA underdogs are hitting at a 57 percent clip. Even better is the home dog, which covered in 60 percent of their games last week.
8. Manhattan – The Jaspers are on an absolute tear right now. They have won seven games in a row and covered in seven of their last eight. They have also covered and won their last four road games. Manhattan is now 9-2 and tied for first in the Metro Atlantic.
7. Detroit Red Wings – Detroit has won seven of eight games and eight of their last 10. The Wings have played extra periods numerous times over this stretch as they have won in a shootout four times and in overtime twice. This is eerily similar to the Penguins (see No. 2). It just shows that to win in hockey you have to sneak by in the close ones.
6. Good NBA Offenses – Defense may win championships, but offense wins at the books. The top four offenses in the NBA are Philly, Denver, Oklahoma City, and Miami. Out of those four, Philly and Denver are No. 1 and No. 2 in ATS records and Oklahoma City is No. 8. Only Miami is struggling. That has to do less with their offense and more with the fact that they constantly face huge lines.
5. Middle Tennessee State – The MTSU Blue Raiders are currently 20-3 SU and 16-5 ATS. The Blue Raiders are also 7-2 ATS in their last nine games, which includes a cover at Vanderbilt. According to Vandy coach Kevin Stallings, MTSU is “really good.”
4. Juventus – For all of you Serie A fans, you must be loving the striped boys. Juventus is 12-8-0. For all of you American football fans, you would think this record isn’t that great, but in soccer, your record is wins-draws-losses. Which means, yup, you guessed it, Juve is undefeated in 20 matches.
3. Novak Djokovic – If Federer is the best of all-time and he can’t beat Nadal, then Rafa must be the best. If Nadal can’t beat Djokovic then…
2. Pittsburgh Penguins – The Penguins have won seven games in a row. During this streak Pittsburgh has won three games in a shootout and one game in overtime. Now that is clutch. The Penguins have planted themselves firmly in the playoff hunt, sitting tied for fifth in the Eastern Conference. And they have done all of this without “Sid the Kid,” whose career will never be the same.
1. Check back next week for more Hot/Cold List.
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