PGA Tour: Majors Won in 2012 Odds and Golf Betting Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 4/3/2012
It’s Masters week – easily the best four days of the golf betting season. It’s truly like the Super Bowl of golf when it comes to all of the props available. And with Tiger Woods coming in off a victory at Bay Hill and big names like Phil Mickelson and Rory McIlroy also having won already in 2012, this is probably the most anticipated Masters in several years.
With that said, let’s look at a few props on major winners this year. Tiger hasn’t won a major since his epic U.S. Open victory in 2008 over Rocco Mediate. You can bet on how many majors Woods gets this year. None is actually the -162 favorite at Bovada, which is somewhat surprising in my opinion. Tiger is playing easily the best he has since before that infamous Thanksgiving weekend in 2009. He hasn’t finished lower than 17th this season in tournaments in which he finished – he withdrew from the WGC-Cadillac.
Of course, Tiger has four green jackets and he is the favorite this week at Augusta. He hasn’t won there since 2005 but also hasn’t finished lower than T6. He has been T4 the past two years. Tiger winning one major is at +188. The rest of the majors are as follows this year: U.S. Open at Olympic Club in San Francisco, British Open at Royal Lytham St. Anne, and the PGA Championship at Kiawah Island in South Carolina.
Woods has won the U.S. Open three times, the British three times and the PGA Championship four times. The U.S. Open hasn’t been to Olympic since 1998 when Lee Janzen won. The British Open hasn’t been to Royal Lytham since 2001 when David Duval won. And this is the first time that Kiawah has hosted the PGA Championship. So Woods hasn’t won a major at any of the other three sites. I do think he wins this week, so I would take that one bet at +188.
Incidentally, you can also bet at Bovada on how many tournaments Woods wins overall this year, with the ‘over/under’ at three. The over is at -150, with the under at +115. It does appear that Tiger will be playing more this year than he used to. But it’s just not easy to win three times on Tour, so I would go under there.
Phil Mickelson also has a ‘majors won in 2012’ prop, with none a big -500 favorite. Lefty has four major titles to his credit, with three at the Masters (last in 2010) and one at the PGA Championship. Lefty winning one major this year is at +333, while winning the Grand Slam pays out at a cool +20000. Mickelson had been a bit off since the Tour moved to Florida, but he rarely plays well in the Sunshine State. At Houston last week, where he won a year ago, Lefty finished T4. So it appears his game is back. I would take one major on Mickelson as well.
McIlroy should have won the Masters last year before his epic collapse opened the door for Charl Schwartzel. McIlroy then did dominate at the U.S. Open but wasn’t much in contention at the British or PGA a year ago. McIlroy has been off for three weeks since his third-place finish at the WGC-Cadillac. I don’t think that bodes well this week. McIlroy winning no majors is at -250, with one at +250. I like ‘none’ on this one.
Lee Westwood has put together a Hall of Fame-caliber career, but he still hasn’t won a major in 55 tries. And he hasn’t won in the states since the 2010 St. Jude Classic. I think if Westwood wins one it will be the British Open. But I would take him winning no majors at -500. That’s the same price for world No. 1 Luke Donald to be held majorless; he also has yet to win one of golf’s biggest events. I like none on him as well.
You can bet on whether the Masters winner will be a first-time major winner it’s ‘yes’ only at +150. Even though I said above I like Tiger this week, I would probably jump all over this prop as a backup. There are so many good players who haven’t yet won a major, like Donald, Westwood, Steve Stricker, Justin Rose, Dustin Johnson and Hunter Mahan (who won last week), to name a few.
You can also bet on the big guns – Woods, McIlroy, Mickelson, Donald, Westwood, Mahan and Johnson – against the field at the Masters, with both at -115. Love the big guns there. Just Tiger and McIlroy against the field has the field at a big -300 favorite. I’d probably take Tiger and Rory at +225.
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