The oddsmakers were on the money in Week 4 of the 2012 NFL regular season when it comes to the total line, with seven games going “over” the total and eight staying “under”. It took awhile, but I finally got back to my winning ways with a 2-1 record on my top three total line plays. This raised my record on the year to 5-7.

Each and every week during the NFL regular season, I will dig deep into Sunday’s schedule of games in an effort to uncover a few golden opportunities to cash in on an over or under bet. The following are my top three NFL picks for this week with lines provided by BetOnline. (All times EST)

Sunday, Oct.6

Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington Redskins (1 p.m. FOX)
Total Line: 50.5

Game Overview

Atlanta’s red-hot 4-0 start has been fueled by a high-powered offense that is ranked third in the NFL in scoring with an average of 31 points a game. Led by quarterback Matt Ryan, the Falcons have yet to score less than 27 points in any of their first four games.

The Redskins are off to a 2-2 start, but under rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III the offense has averaged 30.8 points a game. The problem has been a defense that is ranked 27th in the league in points allowed in giving up the same exact amount as the offense is scoring.

Game Betting Trends

The total line for this matchup opened at 50 and has crept up a half point with some early money on the over. The way both these teams have been putting points on the board, this game should easily clear the current line. It also helps that the total has gone over in nine of the Redskins last 11 games.

Game Pick: OVER

Seattle Seahawks vs. Carolina Panthers (4:05 p.m. FOX)
Total Line: 43.5

Game Overview

Seattle is 2-2 on the year and only managed to score a total of 29 points in the two losses on the road. Overall, the Seahawks’ offense is ranked 28th in the NFL in scoring with an average of 17.5 points a game, while its defense is giving up an average of just 14.5 points a game.

The Panthers have also had trouble putting points of the board in their first four games with an average of just 20 points a game. The up-and-down play of second-year quarterback Cam Newton is part of the problem as well as Carolina’s inability to consistently move the ball on the ground.

Game Betting Trends

The line for this game opened at 44 and has been dropped down a bit since then. The total has stayed under in all four of Seattle’s games this season and in five of Carolina’s last six games in Week 5 of the season. Bank on the Seahawks to play true to form on the road, which will keep this total well under the current line.

Game Pick: UNDER

Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots (4:25 CBS)
Total Line: 51.5

Game Overview

Peyton Manning continues to regain his all-pro form after helping the Broncos put up 37 points in last Sunday’s rout of Oakland. Overall, Denver is averaging 28.5 points a game this season while its defense is giving-up an average of 20.8 points.

There is little doubt that Tom Brady and Co. can still light up the scoreboard, as evidenced by last Sunday’s 52-point explosion against Buffalo. The Patriots lead the league in scoring with 33.5 points a game to complement a defense that is giving up 23 points a game.

Game Betting Trends

This line opened at 51.5 and has basically held steady ever since. The total has gone over in four of Denver’s last five games against the AFC and in 24 of the Patriots last 32 games in the conference. Head-to-head, it has gone over in nine of the last 14 meetings including both games last season (regular season and playoffs).

Game Pick: OVER

YTD Record: 5-7

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