College Basketball: 2012 Missouri Valley Tournament Odds and Predictions
by Robert Ferringo - 2/27/2012
The Gateway Arch in St. Louis is also known as the Gateway to the West. In terms of college basketball betting, it is the Gateway to The Madness.
The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament is the first of the recognizable conference tournaments to be played each season. It marks the beginning of March Madness and is an appetizer for the upcoming month of knockout games, buzzer beaters, stunning upsets, and thrilling college basketball betting moments and situations.
The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament, also known as Arch Madness, begins Thursday, March 1, in St. Louis. The 10-team tournament starts with two play-in games Thursday night, with the quarterfinals starting at noon on Friday. By Sunday a champion will be crowned and one of the first automatic bids to the NCAA Tournament will be secured.
This year’s tournament has already been unique in that there was a five-way tie for third place in the regular season. A series of tiebreakers had to be used to set the seeding for slots No. 3 through No. 7. As a result, the seeding in this year’s tournament doesn’t – in my opinion – really reflect how these teams stack up within the talent hierarchy of the league. It will be interesting to see how that impacts this week’s events.
Here is Doc’s Sports Missouri Valley Conference Tournament predictions (with projected MVC Tournament odds):
The Favorite: Wichita State (-150)
The top seed has made the tournament final in five straight seasons and has cut down the nets at the Scottrade Center in three of the last four years. However, history hasn’t always been kind to the regular season champions here. The top seed has won just 13 of 35 tournaments and just six of the last 21 top seeds have won the league’s automatic bid. Wichita State is clearly the top team in this league and they are one of the best mid-majors in the country. Their guards are eclectic and explosive, and the Shockers boast one of the best offenses in the nation. Seven-foot center Garrett Stutz is a force on both ends.
But the Shockers have a rough road to the title. They may have to face the defending tournament champions, Indiana State, the team that won the 2009 and 2010 titles, in the quarters, Northern Iowa in the semifinals, and then possibly a Top 25 team in Creighton in the Championship Game.
The Contender: Creighton (+120)
The Bluejays were the dominant force in this conference through the majority of the season before a shocking three-game slide at the beginning of February cost them the regular season crown. But they have won four straight to close the regular season – including a thrilling BracketBuster win over Long Beach State – and they have the best player in the conference in Doug McDermott. Creighton is No. 1 in the nation in field goal shooting and No. 2 in three-point shooting. Three of their last four wins have come by two points or less. Will those close wins be a benefit in tight tournament play? Or are they another sign that this team has lost momentum?
The Sleeper: Northern Iowa (+600)
The Panthers have the third-most overall wins in the Missouri Valley and the third-best overall national rating. But due to the tiebreakers they are the No. 5 seed. UNI beat Creighton and has a pair of three-point losses to Wichita State and the Blue Jays. And back in the nonconference they managed to beat some quality teams like Iowa State, Colorado State and Iowa. Is this team really any good? No. But they are the No. 15 three-point shooting team in the nation right now. So all it would take is for a couple shooters to get hot for a weekend for the Panthers to earn their third conference crown in the last four years.
The Spoiler: Evansville (+800)
This team looked like it was heading for a play-in game two weeks ago. But wins over Creighton, Northern Iowa and Missouri State helped vault them into that five-way tie for third. And somehow the Purple Aces were able to finagle their way to the No. 3 seed. Evansville doesn’t defend at all. But they have one of the best offenses in the conference and in Colt Ryan they have the league’s No. 2 overall scorer. The Aces are just 8-5 straight up in their last 13 games. But two of their losses were at OT, including a one-point loss at Creighton (who would likely be their semifinal opponent).
The Matchups:
No. 8 Indiana State (-6) vs. No. 9 Southern Illinois (6 p.m., Thursday, March 1)
The Sycamores won the tournament last year as a No. 3 seed and have most of the primaries back from last year’s title squad. This team has been a big underachiever this year but enters the tournament on an 8-2 against the spread run and beat SIU by 10 on Feb. 11. The Salukis have endured another brutal season. But they did beat Indiana State once this year. SIU has lost six straight and 11 of 13 games coming into this game. This is a projected spread and I think that the majority of the public action is going to come in on an Indiana State team that has been shaky all year.
The winner of this game gets top-seeded Wichita State at noon on Friday. While I always felt that setup favored the team that won the play-in game (and indeed we’ve seen the top seed endure some quarterfinal scares) I don’t think either ISU or SIU has enough defense to take down the Shockers.
No. 7 Drake (-8) vs. No. 10 Bradley (8:30 p.m., Thursday, March 1)
This Bradley team is pathetic and is clearly the worst in the conference. They have just two wins since before Christmas (2-20 SU) and Drake swept them during the regular season. Rayvonte Rice gives Drake the league’s No. 3 overall scorer and a pure go-to- guy. Drake is nothing special. But they should be able to handle this horrible Braves squad.
The winner will face Creighton. The Bluejays swept both teams during the regular season, beating Drake by an average of 12.5 points per game and Bradley by an average of 11.5.
Quarterfinal Matchups:
No. 4 Illinois State (+2.5) vs. No. 5 Northern Iowa (2:30 p.m., Friday, March 2)
It is tough to take the Redbirds seriously as the No. 4 seed when you consider that the top teams in the league routinely blew them out this year. Northern Iowa will want to play this one at a slow, grinding pace. They won by 15 at home in this matchup just two weeks ago but lost, 65-61, in the first meeting back in December.
No. 3 Evansville (+1.5) vs. No. 6 Missouri State (8:30 p.m., Friday, March 2)
This will definitely be Friday’s best matchup. These two just met on Saturday with the Purple Aces pulling off a thrilling overtime win. That gave Evansville a regular season sweep but they actually won both games in overtime and both by five points. Missouri State is one of the top defensive teams in the league and they have one of the MVC’s top players: senior Kyle Weems. I don’t imagine he will go down without a fight.
Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Predictions: I know that long-term history is working against Wichita State winning this tournament. And they do have tricky waters to navigate to get to the championship game. But after a few down years for this league they hThe Gateway Arch in St. Louis is also known as the Gateway to the West. In terms of college basketball betting, it is the Gateway to The Madness.
The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament is the first of the recognizable conference tournaments to be played each season. It marks the beginning of March Madness and is an appetizer for the upcoming month of knockout games, buzzer beaters, stunning upsets, and thrilling college basketball betting moments and situations.
The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament, also known as Arch Madness, begins Thursday, March 1, in St. Louis. The 10-team tournament starts with two play-in games Thursday night, with the quarterfinals starting at noon on Friday. By Sunday a champion will be crowned and one of the first automatic bids to the NCAA Tournament will be secured.
This year’s tournament has already been unique in that there was a five-way tie for third place in the regular season. A series of tiebreakers had to be used to set the seeding for slots No. 3 through No. 7. As a result, the seeding in this year’s tournament doesn’t – in my opinion – really reflect how these teams stack up within the talent hierarchy of the league. It will be interesting to see how that impacts this week’s events.
Here is Doc’s Sports Missouri Valley Conference Tournament predictions (with projected MVC Tournament odds):
The Favorite: Wichita State (-150)
The top seed has made the tournament final in five straight seasons and has cut down the nets at the Scottrade Center in three of the last four years. However, history hasn’t always been kind to the regular season champions here. The top seed has won just 13 of 35 tournaments and just six of the last 21 top seeds have won the league’s automatic bid. Wichita State is clearly the top team in this league and they are one of the best mid-majors in the country. Their guards are eclectic and explosive, and the Shockers boast one of the best offenses in the nation. Seven-foot center Garrett Stutz is a force on both ends.
But the Shockers have a rough road to the title. They may have to face the defending tournament champions, Indiana State, the team that won the 2009 and 2010 titles, in the quarters, Northern Iowa in the semifinals, and then possibly a Top 25 team in Creighton in the Championship Game.
The Contender: Creighton (+120)
The Bluejays were the dominant force in this conference through the majority of the season before a shocking three-game slide at the beginning of February cost them the regular season crown. But they have won four straight to close the regular season – including a thrilling BracketBuster win over Long Beach State – and they have the best player in the conference in Doug McDermott. Creighton is No. 1 in the nation in field goal shooting and No. 2 in three-point shooting. Three of their last four wins have come by two points or less. Will those close wins be a benefit in tight tournament play? Or are they another sign that this team has lost momentum?
The Sleeper: Northern Iowa (+600)
The Panthers have the third-most overall wins in the Missouri Valley and the third-best overall national rating. But due to the tiebreakers they are the No. 5 seed. UNI beat Creighton and has a pair of three-point losses to Wichita State and the Blue Jays. And back in the nonconference they managed to beat some quality teams like Iowa State, Colorado State and Iowa. Is this team really any good? No. But they are the No. 15 three-point shooting team in the nation right now. So all it would take is for a couple shooters to get hot for a weekend for the Panthers to earn their third conference crown in the last four years.
The Spoiler: Evansville (+800)
This team looked like it was heading for a play-in game two weeks ago. But wins over Creighton, Northern Iowa and Missouri State helped vault them into that five-way tie for third. And somehow the Purple Aces were able to finagle their way to the No. 3 seed. Evansville doesn’t defend at all. But they have one of the best offenses in the conference and in Colt Ryan they have the league’s No. 2 overall scorer. The Aces are just 8-5 straight up in their last 13 games. But two of their losses were at OT, including a one-point loss at Creighton (who would likely be their semifinal opponent).
The Matchups:
No. 8 Indiana State (-6) vs. No. 9 Southern Illinois (6 p.m., Thursday, March 1)
The Sycamores won the tournament last year as a No. 3 seed and have most of the primaries back from last year’s title squad. This team has been a big underachiever this year but enters the tournament on an 8-2 against the spread run and beat SIU by 10 on Feb. 11. The Salukis have endured another brutal season. But they did beat Indiana State once this year. SIU has lost six straight and 11 of 13 games coming into this game. This is a projected spread and I think that the majority of the public action is going to come in on an Indiana State team that has been shaky all year.
The winner of this game gets top-seeded Wichita State at noon on Friday. While I always felt that setup favored the team that won the play-in game (and indeed we’ve seen the top seed endure some quarterfinal scares) I don’t think either ISU or SIU has enough defense to take down the Shockers.
No. 7 Drake (-8) vs. No. 10 Bradley (8:30 p.m., Thursday, March 1)
This Bradley team is pathetic and is clearly the worst in the conference. They have just two wins since before Christmas (2-20 SU) and Drake swept them during the regular season. Rayvonte Rice gives Drake the league’s No. 3 overall scorer and a pure go-to- guy. Drake is nothing special. But they should be able to handle this horrible Braves squad.
The winner will face Creighton. The Bluejays swept both teams during the regular season, beating Drake by an average of 12.5 points per game and Bradley by an average of 11.5.
Quarterfinal Matchups:
No. 4 Illinois State (+2.5) vs. No. 5 Northern Iowa (2:30 p.m., Friday, March 2)
It is tough to take the Redbirds seriously as the No. 4 seed when you consider that the top teams in the league routinely blew them out this year. Northern Iowa will want to play this one at a slow, grinding pace. They won by 15 at home in this matchup just two weeks ago but lost, 65-61, in the first meeting back in December.
No. 3 Evansville (+1.5) vs. No. 6 Missouri State (8:30 p.m., Friday, March 2)
This will definitely be Friday’s best matchup. These two just met on Saturday with the Purple Aces pulling off a thrilling overtime win. That gave Evansville a regular season sweep but they actually won both games in overtime and both by five points. Missouri State is one of the top defensive teams in the league and they have one of the MVC’s top players: senior Kyle Weems. I don’t imagine he will go down without a fight.
Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Predictions: I know that long-term history is working against Wichita State winning this tournament. And they do have tricky waters to navigate to get to the championship game. But after a few down years for this league they have two legitimate heavyweights with the Shockers and Bluejays. I don’t see anything preventing a No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup in the title game. And I’ll go with Wichita State cutting down the nets.
Robert Ferringo keeps proving himself to be one of the best college basketball handicappers in the nation. His college basketball picks have earned $100 bettors over $10,000 so far this season. Another strong card is coming today and you can get his pick HERE for only $30.
ave two legitimate heavyweights with the Shockers and Bluejays. I don’t see anything preventing a No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup in the title game. And I’ll go with Wichita State cutting down the nets.
Robert Ferringo keeps proving himself to be one of the best college basketball handicappers in the nation. His college basketball picks have earned $100 bettors over $10,000 so far this season. Another strong card is coming today and you can get his pick HERE for only $30.
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