March Madness Predictions: Reseeding the Brackets
by Nicholas Tolomeo - 3/13/2012
The NCAA Selection Committee and Las Vegas oddsmakers do not see eye-eye when it comes to seeding NCAA Tournament teams. That is quickly evident by a look at the March Madness point spreads and NCAA Tournament future odds. Of course, the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds will be favored by a large sum but it is not at all rare to see a No. 12 seed favored over a No. 5 seed.
Simply put, the NCAA Selection Committee cares what you did during the regular season, the oddsmakers care about what you can do in the postseason. A useful strategy for bettors during March Madness is to eliminate the seeds from the equation and reseed the brackets, creating personal power rankings for each region. Here are my reseeded teams, region by region. My adjusted seed is listed with their actual seed after the team in parentheses.
South Region
1) Kentucky (1)
2) Baylor (3)
3) Duke (2)
4) Wichita State (5)
5) Connecticut (9)
6) Notre Dame (7)
7) UNLV (6)
8) Xavier (10)
9) Indiana (4)
10) Iowa State (8)
11) VCU (12)
12) New Mexico State (13)
13) Colorado (11)
14) Lehigh (15)
15) South Dakota State (14)
16) Western Kentucky (16)
17) Mississippi Valley State (16)
Kentucky is the overall top seed in the NCAA Tournament and they were rewarded with a weak No. 2 in Duke. Baylor is far more dangerous at this point in the year than Duke but the gap between Kentucky and everyone else is a wide one. Indiana is banged up and without point guard Verdell Jones III for the tournament. There is a pair of intriguing higher-seeded teams from the Big East: Connecticut and Notre Dame. The Huskies may have the second-most NBA talent in this region behind Kentucky, but nobody would be surprised to see Jim Calhoun's team go one and done. Notre Dame is probably the Top 7 seed in the tournament and a potential nightmare for Duke in the second round. There are some mid-majors worth keeping an eye on as well like Wichita State, the four seed, VCU, a Final Four finalist a year ago, and New Mexico State.
West Region
1) Missouri (2)
2) Michigan State (1)
3) Louisville (4)
4) Marquette (3)
5) Florida (7)
6) New Mexico (5)
7) St. Louis (9)
8) Memphis (8)
9) Virginia (10)
10) Murray State (6)
11) Long Beach State (12)
12) BYU (14)
13) Colorado State (11)
14) Davidson (13)
15) Norfolk State (15)
16) Long Island
17) Iona (14)
Missouri and Michigan State were basically interchangeable in this region as 1-2, but Missouri gets the nod because of their matchup problems they create and how tough it will be to prepare for them on short notice. Louisville and Marquette were playing some of the best basketball in the Big East in February and March and both are tough outs. Florida is not a No. 7 seed, they got a bad draw plain and simple. Murray State may be the worst No. 6 seed in tournament history but the selection committee was handcuffed with them because of their record (30-1) and ranking (No. 12). Iona might be the worst team in the tournament and they were a head-scratching at-large bid somehow.
East Region
1) Ohio State (2)
2) Syracuse (1)
3) Vanderbilt (5)
4) Florida State (3)
5) Wisconsin (4)
6) Cincinnati (6)
7) West Virginia (10)
8) Texas (11)
9) Kansas State (8)
10) Gonzaga (7)
11) Harvard (12)
12) Southern Mississippi (9)
13) Montana (13)
14) St. Bonaventure (14)
15) UNC-Asheville (16)
16) Loyola Maryland (15)
To borrow a soccer term, this is the region of death. Syracuse is the worst No. 1 seed in the field so they have been punished with a murderer's row of Final Four contenders like Ohio State, the top team in the region, SEC Champion Vanderbilt, ACC champion Florida State, Big East runner-up Cincinnati…need I go on? West Virginia was in the Final Four two years ago and they are playing 70 miles away from campus for some reason as a No. 10 seed. Consol Energy Center in Pittsburgh will be a home game for the Mountaineers against Gonzaga in the first round and possibly Ohio State in the second round. Vanderbilt and Florida State could be incredibly overvalued after winning their respective conference tournaments on Sunday against current No. 1 seeds Kentucky and North Carolina, respectively, so beware.
Midwest Region
1) North Carolina (1)
2) Kansas (2)
3) Georgetown (3)
4) Michigan (4)
5) Purdue (10)
6) Belmont (14)
7) North Carolina State (11)
8) St. Mary's (7)
9) Temple (5)
10) Creighton (8)
11) South Florida (12)
12) Alabama (9)
13) San Diego State (6)
14) Ohio (13)
15) California (12)
16) Detroit (15)
17) Lamar (16)
18) Vermont (16)
The Midwest is as wacky of a region as you will ever see. The oddsmakers are heaping all kinds of praise onto Belmont, pegging them as only four-point underdogs against a legit Georgetown team. At 18/1 Belmont has the fourth best odds to win the region according to future college basketball odds. That is unheard of for a No. 14 seed. What is with terrible No. 6 seeds this season? If it weren’t for Murray State this year, San Diego State might be the worst No. 6 seed in NCAA Tournament history. North Carolina State is favored against them as they should be. South Florida won 20 games but they were disrespected with a play-in game against California, who hails from the awful Pac-12. But at the end of the day this one all comes down to North Carolina and Kansas, a potential made for TV Elite Eight showdown between Roy Williams and his former team. North Carolina is the better team but this is the Midwest region and the regional finals will be held in St. Louis, advantage Jayhawks if it gets to that point.
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