Fourth Down and Inches: Doc's Weekly Football Betting Report
by Doc - 10/30/2012
It is hard for me to believe that the college football season just wrapped up its ninth week of action, but I am getting excited for a remarkable finish down the stretch. Doc’s Sports posted another sub-.500 finish this past Saturday with a 2-3 record on our top plays, including our highest-unit play on Oklahoma. We had the Sooners fired up at home to lay a beating on Notre Dame. And while they were able to move the ball up and down the field, it only led to an early 3-0 lead, and that is usually a recipe for disaster. Running back Cierre Wood broke a 62-yard touchdown run up the middle and the Fighting Irish were off to the races. Oklahoma appeared to tie the game just before halftime, but a questionable holding penalty that was not obvious at all in “TV Land” nullified the play. That is the way it went all night long as the Sooners could not buy a ticket to the end zone.
This unexpected victory keeps Notre Dame undefeated and in the hunt for a spot in the BCS title game. They may need some help in the form of a loss from a red-hot No.2 Kansas State team or an unlikely loss by No.1 Alabama to get there. But if all three teams run the table, this whole situation may end up amplifying the calls for the Irish to finally join a conference if they end up on the outside looking in at No.3.
The whole shooting match for Notre Dame should come down to a Nov. 24 showdown against USC, which is the only real obstacle left on the schedule. The Trojans could realistically have three losses by then, which would further diminish an Irish victory in this game. Earlier in the season I had the Pac-12 as one of the top conferences in the nation. However, things are setting up for another water-downed conference title game this year. A few weeks ago, I also felt that there was no way that Notre Dame would run the table, but I have now changed my tune.
Getting back to USC for a moment, is it me or has there been a more disappointing team in the country this year? The Trojans stumbled their way to their second loss of the season against another inferior opponent in Arizona. Lane Kiffin’s bunch leads the nation in penalties and penalty yardage per game and is one of the most undisciplined teams I have ever seen. To take a record-setting performance such as wide receiver Marqise Lee’s 16 catches for 345 yards and two touchdowns and waste it in a loss was a crime. Kiffin is the main reason we went with Arizona as one of our selections last week. In my book, he is a fraud that has yet to impressive me as a big-game coach. This was a team that started the season ranked No. 1 in the country but is on the brink of disaster if it loses to Oregon on Saturday night. The playmakers are still there, but the Trojans depth was clearly overrated. USC is a 7.5-point underdog at home for this week’s game, so it will be very interesting to see how they respond. Talent-wise they are just as good as the Ducks if not even better, so this is Kiffin’s chance to prove me wrong in my assessment of his coaching skills.
Moving back to our “home conference,” the Big Ten, we believed we were in excellent position to salvage the day, but came up on the wrong end of Wisconsin against Michigan State. It did not help that the Badgers lost their starting quarterback for the second half, but giving up a touchdown late in the game and another one in overtime led to Wisconsin’s first home loss in 21 games. You have to hand it to Michigan State’s defense, which has carried the load for an anemic offense all season long. The Spartans are ranked 10th in the country in points allowed, which should be good enough to win the rest of their games against some pretty mediocre conference competition.
As for Wisconsin, the loss of quarterback Joel Stave for the rest of the season simply added injury to insult. The freshman had made great strides behind center since replacing Danny O’Brien and gave the offense a legitimate chance to make plays through the air. The Badgers must now chose between O’Brien or possibly Curt Phillips to close out the year. O’Brien never came close to filling Russell Wilson’s shoes and already has the dubious distinction of being benched by both Maryland and Wisconsin in his college career. The running attack of the Badgers also came up woefully short in this game, and we must now question whether the change in offensive line coach did anything to actually improve this team. Wisconsin gets a much-needed bye this weekend before playing Indiana on Nov.10 in a game that could decide the Big Ten Leaders Division. It is just too hard for me to say “Indiana” and “division title” in the same breath.
Ohio State got back on track this past Saturday in a rout over Penn State, which only makes me more bitter about the team’s performance the previous week against Purdue, which cost us our Big Ten Game of the Year. The Buckeyes host Illinois this week and then wrap things up with a road game at Wisconsin and a home game against Michigan. The Fighting Illini gave up the fight a long time ago is now the worst team in a terrible league. The road game against Wisconsin just got much easier with the Badgers situation at quarterback, and I cannot see Ohio State losing to the Wolverines at home. Running the table would be a remarkable accomplishment for Urban Meyer’s Buckeyes given the fact they are on probation.
As for Penn State, quarterback Matt McGloin fell back into his old ways, and as a team, this was not one of the Nittany Lions better efforts this year after playing so well over the past few weeks. This kind of sums up the Big Ten this season as a whole; a very competitive conference from within but a laughing stock mired in mediocrity on a national level.
Taking a look back at our picks last week in the NFL, we decided to ride Detroit once again as our top play and collected on a come-from-behind victory over the Seattle at home. This time every one of our customers was able to cash-in without a “push” coming into play on some lines. This helped improve Doc’s outstanding run in the NFL to a 9-1-1 record with our top plays. Be sure to check back in later in the week as we will be releasing another 6-Unit play for this Sunday.
At the midway point of the season, the NFC appears to once again be the much stronger conference with Atlanta, Chicago, New York and San Francisco possibly being the four best teams in the entire league. This could actually play right into AFC representative’s hands come Super Bowl time with a much easier path to the big game. We all know that anything can happen in that particular winner-take-all scenario.
Do not forget about this Sunday’s 6-Unit play in the NFL, which we fully expect to be the 10th winner of the year. You can receive that selection along with our entire football card (college and the NFL) by signing up for a one-week package at the low price of just $99. Simply call 1-800-356-9182 for all the details
That’s it for this week
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