Weekly Football Betting Public Action Report
by Trevor Whenham - 10/28/2011
We have a truly ridiculous number of games that fit the criteria this week for the Public Action Report — far more than I have seen in one week in all the years I have been doing this report. I thought about picking and choosing which ones to write about, but where’s the fun in that?
Instead, we’ll throw in all 18(!) of these games. Because there are so many games to look at we’ll pass over the part where we rehash the criteria yet again. You can look back to last week’s report for a very good explanation of what this is all about. Now, let’s get to it:
College Football
Kentucky (+10) vs. Mississippi State (Saturday, Oct. 29, 7 p.m. ET) - Three-quarters of the bets in this game have been on the Bulldogs, yet the line has dropped from 10.5 to the key number of 10 and can even be found at 9.5 That means that Kentucky is worth a look. With four losses in their last six Mississippi State is far from perfect, so it’s not surprising that smart money seems doubtful about them.
Georgia Tech (+3.5) vs. Clemson (Saturday, Oct. 29, 8 p.m. ET) - 85 percent of bets have been on the Tigers, yet the line has dropped from 4.5 to 3.5. That means Georgia Tech will be worth a look. Georgia Tech will be looking to bounce back strong at home after two straight road losses. A lot of people feel like Clemson has been overachieving this year, so a downward adjustment could be coming.
Indiana (+8.5) vs. Northwestern (Saturday, Oct. 29, 12 p.m. ET) - More than 70 percent of bets have been on the Wildcats, yet the line has dropped from the key number of 10 to 8.5. That means that Indiana is worth a look. Northwestern is getting worse as the season has gone along, and though Indiana is struggling they are playing tougher under their new coaching staff.
Rutgers (+6.5) vs. West Virginia (Saturday, Oct. 29, 3:30 p.m. ET) - Three-quarters of bets have been on the Mountaineers, yet the line has moved through the key number of seven from the opening of 7.5 to 6.5 now. That means Rutgers is worth a look. Between the horrible loss last week and all the drama around their potential conference move there is a very good chance that the Mountaineers will be distracted here.
Vanderbilt (+9) vs. Arkansas (Saturday, Oct. 29, 12:20 p.m. ET) - The action has been overwhelmingly one-sided — Arkansas has drawn nearly 90 percent of bets. The line opened as high as 12 and has dropped as much as a field goal, though, so Vanderbilt is worth a look. The Commodores have quietly been effective in their last two.
Kent State (+3.5) vs. Bowling Green (Saturday, Oct. 29, 1 p.m. ET) - More than 70 percent of bets have been on Bowling Green, yet the line opened as high as six and has fallen to 3.5. That means that Kent State is worth a close look. Bowling Green has struggled badly in their last two road games, so they aren’t in a strong place here.
Missouri (+10) at Texas A&M (Saturday, Oct. 29, 12 p.m. ET) - More than 70 percent of bets have been on the Aggies, yet the line has fallen from 11 to the key number of 10, so Missouri is worth a look. Texas A&M has covered just once in their last six games, so it’s no surprise that smart bettors are nervous about backing them.
Iowa State (+14.5) at Texas Tech (Saturday, Oct. 29, 7 p.m. ET) - Nearly 85 percent of bets have been on the Red Raiders, yet the line, which opened as high as 17, has fallen to 14.5. That means Iowa State is worth a look. Texas Tech could easily be in line for a letdown after their stunning upset of Oklahoma last week, and Iowa State played Texas A&M surprisingly tough last week.
Florida (+3) vs. Georgia (Saturday, Oct 29, 3:30 p.m. ET) - Nearly three-quarters of bettors love the Bulldogs, yet the line opened at the key number of three and is now widely available at 2.5. A move off of three is significant, so Florida is definitely worth a look here. The Gators are desperate for a defining win under the new regime, so they should be motivated against a vulnerable Georgia team.
Idaho (+7) vs. Hawaii (Saturday, Oct. 29, 5 p.m. ET) - I honestly can’t think of too many reasons to like an Idaho team that has lost five straight, but the smart money likes them so they are worth a look. Hawaii has drawn more than 80 percent of bets, yet the line has dropped hard from 10.5 to the key number of seven.
UCLA (+4.5) vs. Cal (Saturday, Oct. 29, 7 p.m. ET) - More than 70 percent of bets have been on Cal, yet the line as dropped from five to 4.5. That means that the hapless Bruins are worth a look. It’s easy for the public to pile on UCLA because of the high-profile struggles of Rick Neuheisel, but Cal has been far from a good team this year, either, so it’s understandably hard for sharp bettors to get excited about them.
Arizona (+4) at Washington (Saturday, Oct. 29, 10:30 p.m. ET) - The Huskies have drawn more than three-quarters of the bets, yet the line has dropped from 6.5 to four, so the Wildcats are worth a look. Arizona played with surprising jump last week after their coaching change, and Washington could have a hard time getting their minds into this game after the humiliating destruction they suffered at the hands of the Cardinal last week.
Baylor (+14) at Oklahoma State (Saturday, Oct. 29, 3:30 p.m. ET) - More than 85 percent of bettors have backed the unbeaten Cowboys, yet the line opened as high as 18 and can now be found at the key number of 14. That means that the Bears are worth a look. Baylor has seen their dreams get bruised and battered this season, but a win here would be a nice trophy for them. Even if they don’t win they are a dangerous team that could keep this one close enough to cover.
Ohio State (+7) vs. Wisconsin (Saturday, Oct. 29, 8 p.m. ET) - Nearly 90 percent of bets have been on Wisconsin, yet the line has fallen from 7.5 to the key number of seven. That means that some heavy smart money has been on Ohio State, and they are worth some attention. Wisconsin should be shaken after their first loss, and despite their issues Ohio State is a proud team that has been playing difficult opponents tough recently.
USC (+7.5) vs. Stanford (Saturday, Oct. 29, 8 p.m. ET) - Nearly 90 percent of bets have been on the unbeaten Cardinal, yet the line has dropped a point from 8.5 to 7.5. That means the Trojans are worth a look. This is the best team Stanford has played all year, and the Trojans have been tough the last three weeks, so USC could keep this one close.
NFL
Minnesota Vikings (+3) at Carolina Panthers (Sunday, Oct. 30, 1 p.m. ET) - 70 percent of bets have been on the Panthers — as close to a public team this year as a team with a 2-5 record can be — yet the line has dropped from four to the key number of three. That means that the Vikings are worth a look. Christian Ponder was decent last week and the team responded by playing Green Bay very tight, so Minnesota could be tough here.
Miami Dolphins (+9.5) at New York Giants (Sunday, Oct. 30, 1 p.m. ET) - Nearly 85 percent of bets have been on the Giants, yet the line has dropped from the key number of 10 to 9.5. That means that the Dolphins are worth a look. They have neither won nor covered in their last six, but they played their best in a long time last week so could be a surprise here.
Cleveland Browns (+9) at San Francisco 49ers (Sunday, Oct. 30, 4:15 p.m. ET) - More than 80 percent of bets have been on the Niners, yet the line has dropped from 9.5 to nine, so the Browns are worth a look. The bandwagon for the Niners is getting crowded these days, so it’s no surprise that smart bettors see this line as a little inflated. Cleveland has been playing tough, feisty football.
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