Weekly Football Betting Public Action Report
by Trevor Whenham - 10/7/2011
Last week was not the best for the Public Action Report. In fact, outside of calling a very nice upset of Northern Illinois by Central Michigan, it was a totally forgettable week. Not every week can be great, though, and it has been strong up to this point.
What is the Public Action Report? Basically, what we are looking for are situations where the line movement doesn’t make sense. If more than 70 percent of bets on a game have been made on one team then the odds for that team would usually get less attractive because the sportsbooks will be looking to get more balance to the action.
There are times, though, when you’ll see situations in which the odds are moving to become more attractive for a team despite the lopsided action. That’s what we are looking for. When we see that we know that either the smart money is heavily betting against the public or, for some other reason, the sports books aren’t afraid of heavy action on the popular side. Either way, the team that is less popular to the public is worth a close look for us.
There are seven games to look at this week — four in college and three in the NFL:
College Football
Boston College (+20.5) at Clemson (Saturday, Oct. 8, 3 p.m. ET)
The Tigers have become media darlings with their strong start that has featured wins over Auburn, Florida State and Virginia Tech in consecutive weeks. Given that and the lousy start by Boston College, it’s no surprise that almost 80 percent of bets have been placed on the Tigers.
Despite that, though, the line opened as high as 22, and has fallen to 20.5 — a move through the key number of 21. That means that Boston College is worth a look here.
The only team Clemson beat by more than this spread is Troy in the opener, and Boston College has played close in three of five, so a cover is certainly possible.
Pittsburgh (-7) at Rutgers (Saturday, Oct.8, 3:30 p.m. ET)
This line opened with Pitt favored by as much as 9.5, but has since dropped to the key number of seven despite seeing more than three-quarters of bets placed on the Panthers.
Rutgers has won two in a row and is only two points at North Carolina away from being undefeated. Pitt could be in for a letdown after their huge win against South Florida, and they were often ineffective in their two games before that.
A covered spread by the underdog is certainly possible.
Temple (-9.5) at Ball State (Saturday, Oct. 8, 2 p.m. ET)
Temple has drawn more than 70 percent of bets, but the line opened at 11 and has fallen through the key number of 10 to 9.5. Temple came into the season with high hopes, but they have lost two of three and clearly have some issues.
Ball State was crushed by Oklahoma last week, but had won two in a row before that and can be tough in this one.
Florida International (-17) at Akron (Saturday, Oct. 8, 2 p.m. ET)
FIU has drawn more than 70 percent of bets, yet the line opened at 20 and has fallen by a full field goal to 17.
The Panthers started very strong this year, but after a win over Central Florida they have lost two in a row, and a young program like theirs could have confidence issues. They should win, but they may not win by this much. That means that Akron is worth a look.
NFL
New Orleans (-6.5) at Carolina (Sunday, Oct. 9, 1 p.m. ET)
Nearly 80 percent of bettors are backing the Saints, but the line opened on the key number of seven and has since fallen to 6.5. That’s a fairly significant move in the NFL, so the Panthers are worth a look here.
Despite their 1-3 record the Panthers have played their opponents tight, and have not lost by more than a touchdown. Cam Newton is passing like crazy, while the Saints have really struggled to contain the two big passing QBs they have faced. Carolina will be looking to pull off a shocker at some point this season. At the very least they could keep this one close.
Seattle (+9.5) at New York Giants (Sunday, Oct. 9, 1 p.m. ET)
Three-quarters of bets have been placed on the Giants, yet the line has fallen from the key number of 10 to 9.5. The Seahawks are worth a look.
Tarvaris Jackson has shown notable improvement in each start he has had, and while the Giants have won three in a row they have been neither consistent nor overwhelming.
San Diego (-4) at Denver (Sunday, Oct.9, 4:15 p.m. ET)
San Diego has drawn more than 80 percent of bets, but the line has dropped from six to four, and can even be found at 3.5 in some places. That means that the Broncos deserve a closer look.
Hating the Broncos has become a sport, but they have played tough at home and the Chargers are not always a strong road team.
Most Recent Weekly Sports Betting and Handicapping
- Best Prop Bets Tonight: MLB Division Winner Odds
- Weekly Q&A with Doc's Sports Expert Handicapper Raphael Esparza
- Weekly Q&A with Doc's Sports Expert Handicapper Raphael Esparza
- Weekly Q&A with Doc's Sports Expert Handicapper Raphael Esparza
- Weekly Q&A with Doc's Sports Expert Handicapper Raphael Esparza
- Weekly Q&A with Doc's Sports Expert Handicapper Raphael Esparza
- Weekly Q&A with Doc's Sports Expert Handicapper Raphael Esparza
- Weekly Q&A with Doc's Sports Expert Handicapper Raphael Esparza
- Weekly Q&A with Doc's Sports Expert Handicapper Raphael Esparza
- Weekly Q&A with Doc's Sports Expert Handicapper Raphael Esparza