It was a long way from a perfect week last week for the Public Action Report, but there were a couple of very nice highlights — the Virginia upset of Georgia Tech and Tampa Bay’s bounce-back against the Saints. This week we have four games to look at — three in college and one in the NFL.

All of the games are interesting in different ways. Sometimes the college games that fit the criteria aren’t high-profile ones, but each of the three this week feature teams fighting for their conference titles and ones that have a shot at a big bowl game. When stakes are that high, things really get interesting.

Let’s take a quick look at what we are looking for with these games. These are not games that look good to me, or that I have a feeling about. In fact, I have nothing to do with which games are picked. If they fit the criteria they are in.

What we look at is the percentage of bets that have been placed on each team. In most cases if one team has a wide majority of the bets on them — at least 70 percent in our case — then you would expect the line to move to make the favorite less attractive so that oddsmakers can limit their risk. Sometimes, though, we’ll see the line move to make those more popular teams even more attractive.

That unexpected movement in the line indicates one of two things. Either the books aren’t afraid of extra action on the one side for some reason, or a small number of bettors are betting large enough amounts on the less popular team to force the line movement. In either case people with a lot of resources and insight have a clear interest in the less popular team, and it makes sense that we should take a closer look at them as well.

College Football

Purdue (+3.5) vs. Illinois (Saturday, Oct. 22, 12 p.m. ET) - It’s not surprising that Illinois has drawn the large majority of bets in this game — more than three quarters. What is surprising, though, is that the line has been in free fall. It opened at 6.5, fell quickly to 5.5, and can now be found at 3.5. That suggests that smart money is aggressively on Purdue. The Boilermakers have played well in two straight, while Illinois is coming off a very frustrating loss and could have a hard time focusing on this one. Ron Zook is not the master of the bounce back, so Purdue is worth a look here.

Kansas (+10) vs. Kansas State (Saturday, Oct. 22, 12 p.m. ET) - Nearly 90 percent of all bets in this one have been on unbeaten Kansas State against struggling Kansas. No surprise. The line has fallen hard, though. It opened at 14.5, moved through the key number of 14 almost instantly, and has fallen as far as the key number of 10 now. Kansas has definitely struggled, but Kansas State is viewed as overrated in a lot of circles and this could be an easy game for them to look past with Oklahoma and Oklahoma State coming in the next two weeks. The strong line movement tells us Kansas is worth a look.

Michigan State (+7) vs. Wisconsin (Saturday, Oct. 22, 8 p.m. ET) - The unbeaten Badgers have drawn nearly three-quarters of all bets on the game, yet the line opened at 7.5 and has dropped to the key number of seven. That means that the Spartans are worth a look. Michigan State shut down a potent Michigan offense last week — it was pretty humiliating for the Wolverines. Russell Wilson and the Badgers have been great this year, but they haven’t faced a defense like this — even with William Gholston suspended for the game for his hooliganism. This is also the toughest opponent Wisconsin has faced yet and, incredibly, the first game they have played on the road, so we can’t be completely confident of how they will perform.

NFL

Washington Redskins (+1) at Carolina Panthers (Sunday, Oct. 23, 1 p.m. ET) - The surprising (on the field, if not in the standings) Carolina Panthers have drawn 70 percent of the bets in this one, yet the line opened at the key number of three and has fallen to as low as a single point. That means that Washington is worth a look here. Carolina hasn’t enjoyed quite the offensive success lately as opponents get a bit more of a sense of how to deal with Cam Newton’s heroics. Washington has made a QB change, but John Beck was prepared to go from the start of the season so that’s clearly not as much of a concern to smart bettors as some moves could be. Washington also has been strong against the spread in two road games in much tougher settings than this one this year.