Weekly Football Betting Public Action Report
by Trevor Whenham - 11/18/2011
The Public Action Report is hot these days. There were five games that fit the criteria last week. Three of the predicted teams covered the spread. What was far more impressive, though, was that two of those teams were Purdue and the Seahawks — two teams that pulled off big-time upsets that paid handsomely on the moneyline.
This week is another busy one, and hopefully it can be just as successful. For a reminder of the criteria you can look back to last week’s report. Now let’s get on with the games this week:
College Football
North Carolina State (+7.5) vs. Clemson (Saturday, Nov. 19, 3:30 p.m. ET) - More than 85 percent of all bets placed have been on Clemson in this one, yet the line is falling. It opened as high as 10 in some places, and at 8.5 in most places, and has since fallen to 7.5. That means that NC State is worth a look here. Clemson has failed to cover in their last two — and they lost one of those two — so it seems as if their blistering start against brutal competition is starting to catch up to them. NC State is far from a great team, but they are at home so that can’t hurt them.
Oregon State (+2) vs. Washington (Saturday, Nov. 19, 3:30 p.m. ET) - The smart money seems to be calling for an upset here. Washington has drawn more than three-quarters of all bets, yet the line opened at 3.5 and has moved through the key number of three down to two. A move through any key number is significant, but none more than three because of the risk of being middled. Books won’t move through that number unless they have a very good reason to, so the action must be intense on the Beavers. They are worth a close look.
Cal (+17.5) at Stanford (Saturday, Nov.19, 10:15 p.m. ET) - More than 85 percent of bettors have backed the Cardinal in this huge rivalry game, yet the line has dropped by nearly a field goal from 20 to 17.5. That means that Cal is worth a look. The likely reason smart money is skeptical about Stanford is their mental state after the humiliating loss to Oregon last week on the national stage. Stanford is much better than Cal here, but the Bears are good enough to keep it interesting if Stanford doesn’t have their collective head in the game.
South Florida (-1) vs. Miami (Saturday, Nov. 19, 3:30 p.m. ET) - Nearly three-quarters of bets have been on the Hurricanes, yet they have gone from being favored by 1.5 to underdogs of one point. That means that South Florida is worthy of our attention. South Florida ended a four-game losing streak last game and has played well in their biggest games. Miami should be frustrated after two losses in their last three, and could easily be vulnerable here.
Fresno State (+4.5) at Hawaii (Saturday, Nov. 19, 11 p.m. ET) - The last game of the night is an interesting one. Eighty percent of bettors have been on Hawaii, yet the line has dropped from 6.5 to 4.5. Fresno State and Pat Hill are worth our attention. Hawaii has lost two in a row and has failed to cover their last two at home, so they aren’t playing their best and could be getting too much credit here.
NFL
Washington Redskins (+7.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys (Sunday, Nov. 20, 1 p.m. ET) - Nearly three-quarters of bets have been on Tony Romo and his boys, yet the line has dropped from nine to 7.5. That means that the Redskins are worth a look here. Washington has QB issues, but the Cowboys aren’t exactly perfect this year, and the two teams have played tight the last two times they have met. Washington is at home, too, and the fans will be fired up for this divisional contest.
San Diego Chargers (+3.5) at Chicago Bears (Sunday, Nov. 20, 4:15 p.m. ET) - The Bears have drawn more than 70 percent of bets, yet the line has dropped from 4 to 3.5. That means it isn’t time to write off the Chargers just yet. The Chargers have lost four straight while the Bears have won four in a row, but smart bettors don’t seem to have a whole lot of faith in either streak based on this movement.
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