Weekly Football Betting Public Action Report
by Trevor Whenham - 10/14/2011
It was a solid bounce-back last week after a disastrous week the week before. Now we’ll look to continue the strong performance for the Public Action Report.
As always, a quick recap of what the Public Action Report is. We are on the lookout for teams for which the odds get more attractive even though the bulk of the betting action (at least 70 percent of all bets placed) has been placed on them. When a team has that kind of lopsided attention the odds should get less attractive as the books try to balance their action to minimize risk.
When the opposite happens it’s a sign of one of two things — either the books have a good reason not to be afraid of their exposure, or a small number of smart bettors are betting a significant amount of money on the less popular team. Either reason is good enough to pay close attention to the less popular team.
We have another heavy week of action this week:
College Football
Maryland (+7.5) vs. Clemson (Saturday, Oct. 15, 7 p.m. ET) - Clemson has been one of the most impressive surprises of the year so far, and bettors are taking note. Ninety percent of bettors have backed the Tigers in this one. Despite that, the line opened at 8.5 and has dropped to 7.5. There are no key numbers involved, but it is still striking to see a line move against such overwhelming action. Maryland is coming off a very solid road loss, and Clemson could be due for a letdown, so the Terrapins are worth a look here.
Virginia (+7) vs. Georgia Tech (Saturday, Oct. 15, 3:30 p.m. ET) - Nearly 90 percent of bets have been on the Yellow Jackets, yet the line has fallen from 8.5 to the key number of seven — a clear sign that we should be looking at Virginia. It’s hard to love much of what we have seen from Virginia this year, but Georgia Tech hasn’t been as sharp in their last two wins as they should have been and are clearly overrated based on their ranking and who they have played so far.
Mississippi State (+3) vs. South Carolina (Saturday, Oct. 15, 12 p.m. ET) - The Gamecocks have drawn 80 percent of bets, yet the line has dropped from five to the key number of three, and it is even available in places at 2.5, which opens up the possibility of a middle. Books absolutely hate being middled at three, so if the line is moving like this then it’s a clear sign that the Bulldogs are drawing heavy smart money action. Given the distractions South Carolina is facing — the dismissal of Stephen Garcia, Steve Spurrier’s press conference meltdown, and so on — it’s been a rough week for South Carolina, and the Bulldogs could benefit. They are worth a look.
Memphis (+14) vs. East Carolina (Saturday, Oct. 15, 7 p.m. ET) - More than three-quarters of bets have been on the Pirates, yet the line has dropped from 16.5 to the key number of 14. That means that the Tigers are worth a look. Memphis will be happy to be home after two road games in a row, and East Carolina could be badly frustrated after a 53-point loss last week.
NFL
Cleveland (+6.5) at Oakland (Sunday, Oct. 16, 4 p.m. ET) - This game opened with Oakland favored by the key number of seven, yet despite the fact that Oakland has drawn more than 80 percent of bets it has dropped to 6.5. That means that the Browns are worth a look. Cleveland has been playing solid ball, and they have had a bye week to get ready for this one. Oakland could be in for an emotional letdown after winning a big game so soon after Al Davis died last week.
Tampa Bay (+4.5) vs. New Orleans (Sunday, Oct. 16, 4 p.m. ET) - the Saints have drawn nearly 85 percent of all bets on this game, yet the line has dropped from five to 4.5. It’s not a huge move, but it still isn’t expected. Tampa Bay was humiliated by the Niners last week, but they have bounced back well in the past and they are at home now. The Saints are playing their third straight road game, so they could be weary. The Bucs are worth a look.
Miami (+7) at New York Jets (Monday, Oct. 17, 8:30 p.m. ET) - More than 70 percent of bets have been on the Jets, yet the line has moved from nine to the key number of seven. That means we should be looking at the Dolphins. Miami has had a bye week to get ready for this one, and they could rally together as a team after their injury issues and the criticism they have faced. The Jets have not looked good in their last three games, and have been heavily targeted in the media. They do not seem like a healthy team right now, and smart money clearly isn’t trusting them.
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