Weekly Football Betting Public Action Report
by Trevor Whenham - 9/30/2011
Last week was another good one for the Public Action Report. There were six games, and four covered the spread. That’s two solid weeks in a row. It’s a very busy week this week as we go for three strong showings in a row — four college games and four in the NFL.
Since we have so many games to cover we’ll be very brief in describing what we are looking for. If you need more detail just look back at the last couple reports. Basically we are looking for games with heavy betting action on one side in which the line has moved to make the popular team more attractive. That line movement is contrary to expectations, and is a good sign that either the smart money is very heavily on the less popular side, or for some other reason the sportsbooks aren’t afraid of unbalanced action. In either case the less popular team is worth a close look. Without further ado, let’s look at the college football odds and NFL point spreads in question:
College football
Georgia Tech (-10) at N.C. State (Saturday, Oct.1, 3:30 p.m. ET)
More than 80 percent of all bets have been placed on the Ramblin’ Wreck, yet the line opened at 11 and has fallen to 10, and even 9.5 in some spots. That means that the Wolfpack is worth a close look. This is one of those spots where the reason for that is hard to understand. N.C. State has failed to cover all four games this year, while the Yellow Jackets have covered all four. Still, the line movement is pretty clear.
Texas Tech (-6.5) at Kansas (Saturday, Oct. 1, noon ET)
Line moves are particularly interesting when they move through a key number. Books hate to move through key numbers because of the risk of being middled, so there has to be very heavy action in order for them to feel compelled to do it.
The Red Raiders have drawn more than 80 percent of all bets here, yet the line opened at 7.5 and has fallen to 6.5. That’s a clear endorsement of the Jayhawks. Texas Tech is unbeaten, but the only legitimate opponent they have faced is Nevada last week, and they only squeaked out that game by a single point as a 15.5-point favorite. Kansas is coming off a terrible loss, but Turner Gill has them moving in the right direction, and they are better than they get credit for.
Northern Illinois (-8.5) at Central Michigan (Saturday, Oct. 1, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Central Michigan isn’t a very good team. Neither is Northern Illinois, though, and it seems like the smart money has less faith in the Huskies. Nearly 85 percent of bets have been placed on the Huskies, yet the line opened at the key number of 10 and has fallen to 8.5. The Chippewas are worth a look.
Alabama (-3.5) at Florida (Saturday, Oct.1, 8 p.m. ET)
Alabama is clearly one of the elite teams in the country, yet the smart money seems to like the Gators in this one — at least much more than the public does. Three-quarters of all bets have been on the Tide, yet the line has dropped from 4.5 to 3.5. Florida has been better than expected, and based on how poor they were last year it would be easy to underestimate them.
NFL
New Orleans (-7) at Jacksonville (Sunday, Oct. 2, 1 p.m. ET)
Jacksonville has struggled and the Saints are popular, so it’s no surprise more than 85 percent of all bets have been on the Saints. Despite that, though, the line opened at the key number of seven and can be found at 6.5 in places. That’s a sign that Jacksonville is worth a look. While that’s surprising on the surface, Jacksonville has played solid defense in two of three games and the Saints’ defense has been torched in two of three games. New Orleans is popular, but they have clear vulnerabilities.
New York Giants (-1) at Arizona (Sunday, Oct. 2, 4 p.m. ET)
Nearly 80 percent of bets have been on the Giants, yet this line opened at three, fell almost instantly, and has settled at one. That’s a clear sign that the Cardinals are worth a look. Arizona will be happy to be home after two straight road games. Eli Manning has struggled for consistency, and if he can be rattled early he’s ineffective.
Denver (+12.5) at Green Bay (Sunday, Oct. 2, 4 p.m. ET)
This one stands out because the home team is so clearly a public squad, and the road team is so popular to be negative about because of their QB situation. Three-quarters of bets have been on the Packers, yet the line opened as high as 14.5 and has fallen to as low as 12. That means that Denver deserves a closer look. Green Bay’s secondary has had issues this year at times, and Kyle Orton isn’t as bad as people think, so it’s not hat surprising that smart money balked at spotting the Broncos more than two touchdowns.
New England (-4) at Oakland (Sunday, Oct. 2, 1 p.m. ET)
The Patriots are the most public of teams, and the public loves them — as the fact that they have drawn more than 70 percent of bets here indicates. The smart money isn’t in love with them in nearly the same way here, though. The line opened at 4.5 and has fallen to four. New England’s defense is concerning — they made Chad Henne look like Dan Marino — and their confidence has to be rattled by the collapse in Buffalo last week. Oakland has played surprisingly well — especially on offense where they feature the best running back in the league right now — and probably deserves more respect than this at home. At least that’s what the line movement indicates.
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