Weekly Football Betting Public Action Report
by Trevor Whenham - 11/4/2011
Last week is a perfect example of why I love the Public Action Report. It was a very strange week — the 18 games that fit the criteria were twice more than I have ever seen in a week in several years of doing this. Ten of the 18 identified teams covered the spread, so the report was profitable on its’ own.
Where it was really impressive, though, was in identifying upsets — Missouri and Iowa State were double-digit underdogs, and Georgia Tech, Hawaii, Ohio State, Kent State and the Vikings all came through at nice money line prices.
It was a very good week for moneyline bettors, but this Report does a pretty good job of picking out those types of winners regularly.
This week is still a busy one, though there are fewer than half as many games as last week — four in college and three in the NFL. With so many games to deal with I’ll ask you again to look back at the report from two weeks ago if you need a recap of the criteria. Without further ado:
College Football
Texas A&M (+13.5) at Oklahoma (Saturday, Nov. 5, 3:30 p.m. ET) - More than 80 percent of bets have been placed on the Sooners, yet the line opened at 14.5, moved through the key number of 14, and now is widely available at 13.5. That means that the Aggies are worth a look. The Sooners are just 1-2 ATS in their last three at home and the Aggies have been close in their losses, so they could at least keep this one tight.
NC State (+3.5) vs. North Carolina (Saturday, Nov. 5, 12:30 p.m. ET) - The Tar Heels have attracted three quarters of the bets, yet the line had dropped from 4.5 to 3.5. That means that we should take a look at the Wolfpack. North Carolina is just 2-6 ATS in their last eight conference games, and NC State had been playing well before last week’s debacle against Florida State.
UCLA (+8.5) vs. Arizona State (Saturday, Nov. 5, 7:30 p.m. ET) - Nearly 80 percent of bettors have backed the Sun Devils, yet the line has dropped from 11 to 8.5. It has become very attractive to mock the Bruins and Rick Neuheisel, but they are worth a look here. They are coming off a good performance against Cal and are 3-2 in their conference, so they aren’t as bad as people think and there could be value on them.
Utah State (+3.5) at Hawaii (Saturday, Nov.5, 11:55 p.m. ET) - Three quarters of the bets have been on the home team, yet the line has dropped by a full field goal from 6.5 to 3.5. That’s a clear indication that the Aggies are worthy of attention. Utah State has covered two of three road games, and Hawaii could be poised for a letdown after two big underdog wins in a row.
NFL
Miami Dolphins (+4) at Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday, Nov. 6, 1:00 p.m. ET) - Not surprisingly, three-quarters of bettors have supported the resurgent Chiefs against the woeful Dolphins. The line has dropped from 5 to 4, though, so smart money appears to aggressively be on the Dolphins. Miami has been very tough in their last two losses and aren’t nearly as bad as their record suggests.
Washington Redskins (+3.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (Sunday, Nov. 6, 1:00 p.m. ET) - Public bettors love the Jim Harbaugh express — nearly 85 percent have backed them in this game. Despite that heavy support, though, the line has dropped from 4.5 to 3.5. That’s a sign that Washington is getting strong support from a small number of bettors and is worthy of attention. I read this as entirely an anti-bandwagon play — only one or two other teams are getting the hype that the Niners are right now, and that’s having a clear and obvious impact on public sentiments, and therefore on lines. San Francisco has traveled well this year so far, but this is still a tough trip for them.
San Diego Chargers (+5.5) vs. Green Bay Packers (Sunday, Nov. 6, 4:15 p.m. ET) - Since we were just speaking about anti-bandwagon NFL picks, this is the perfect game to look at. The Packers are, in the view of the media and the general public, all but unbeatable. They have drawn nearly 80 percent of bets. The smart money isn’t buying it, though — the line has dropped from 6 to 5.5. The Chargers have their issues, but they are tough at home, they are returning there after three straight road games so they will be happy for the comforts of home, and when we last saw Green Bay they were struggling to beat the Vikings, so they aren’t nearly as perfect as people think.
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