PGA Golf: Hyundai Tournament of Champions Predictions and Betting Odds
by Alan Matthews - 1/5/2011
The short PGA Tour offseason is officially in the bag as the new golf year tees off with the Hyundai Tournament of Champions starting Thursday at the Plantation Course at Kapalua in Maui. Here we will provide some predictions for the tournament along with betting odds for players of note.
This tournament has had several names over the years, including SBS Championship just for last year, but it’s a winners-only field from tournament champions from the previous year. So that previous statement should answer your first question: No, Tiger Woods is not playing this week because he was shut out in 2010. Phil Mickelson could have played if he wanted to, but he rarely starts the season this early so he’s also out. In fact, only one major winner from last year is playing and that’s U.S. Open champion Graeme McDowell. Also out this week are Lee Westwood, Martin Kaymer and Rory McIlroy. So this tournament is a bit watered down.
When betting on this event, you might want to go with someone who plays often on the European Tour (or elsewhere overseas like Australia), because that tour has been going for a while already this year and stretched longer into the end of 2010 than the PGA Tour. And don’t expect the winner this week to have an overly strong year as not since Tiger in 2000 has the winner here managed to get more than one other tournament victory in the same year. In fact, over the past seven years no winner of this event has gone on to finish in the Top 10 in a major in that season.
The favorite at Bodog this week is Aussie Geoff Ogilvy at 7/1. And he should be favored as he has won this tournament two years running; two other players in history have won this tournament three years in a row. Last year Ogilvy closed with a six-under 67 to finish at 22-under 270 for a one-shot victory over South Africa's Rory Sabbatini. And Ogilvy has been playing well lately, winning the Australian Open on Dec. 5, then losing a playoff to Peter Senior the following week in the Australian PGA. Ogilvy has played in this tournament four times overall and has never finished outside the Top 20. You might want to either bet on Ogilvy or one of his countrymen as an Aussie has won this five of the past seven years (Stuart Appleby from 2004-06).
Ernie Els is the second betting favorite at 8/1. The Big Easy won a tournament just a few weeks ago, taking his native South African Open for the fifth time in his career. Els has played in this tournament eight times and has six Top-10 finishes, including a win in 2003. He didn’t play in the event last year.
No American has won this event since Jim Furyk in 2001. Furyk is tied with Steve Stricker as the third betting-favorite at 11/1. Furyk has more Top-10 finishes here than any player with eight in 11 tournaments. He won in 2008 but didn’t play the past two years. Stricker finished tied for 10th last year.
McDowell might be your best bet at 12/1. Remember he rallied to beat Tiger at the Chevron World Challenge last month, his fourth win in seven months. This will be McDowell’s debut at this tournament. At No. 5 in the world, McDowell is the highest-ranked player in the 34-strong field. A bit oddly coming off a career year, however, McDowell is switching clubs and this will be the first tournament he uses the new brand (Srixon).
McDowell is one of just five Europeans in the field at Kapalua, alongside Englishmen Ian Poulter and Justin Rose, Italian Francesco Molinari and Swede Carl Pettersson. Bodog does offer a prop on the top European finisher in this tournament (along with many other player props), with McDowell the 3/2 favorite.
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