Monday Couch Potato: NFL Week 5/NCAA Week 6 Betting Recap
by Alan Matthews - 10/10/2011
Welcome again to the Monday coach potato, a recap of the football weekend that was. Here are three things that caught my attention in the pro and college ranks:
The Eagles Are Officially Broken
If you continue to bet on Michael Vick and Co., you are clearly just throwing your money away. As I mentioned last week, the Eagles have sort of become the Yankees (how’d that work out by the way?) in the eyes of oddsmakers in that Philly is always overvalued. Somehow, the then 1-3 Iggles were three-point favorites on Sunday at 3-1 Buffalo.
Yes, Philly outgained the Bills by a wide margin but also had five turnovers (four Vick interceptions) in losing its fourth straight game, this time 31-24. That’s four straight non-covers, by the way, as Philly has yet to be listed as an underdog this year. Bodog had a prop on Andy Reid’s fate with the team, and I’m starting to think he might have to take the fall. This is the Eagles’ worst start since his first year as the team’s coach. I would have to say I would cut Juqua Parker right now if I was Reid. Did you see him jump offside with the Bills clearly just trying to lure an Eagle to do so with a little over a minute remaining? Unacceptable.
And make sure you take the ‘over’ on all Buffalo games (it’s now hit in all five). The Bills have scored 30+ points in four of their five games this season. It's their most games with at least 30 points in a single season since 2008.
The Packers Just Might Go Unbeaten
A few weeks ago, Bodog also offered a prop on the last team to go unbeaten. I recommended the Packers, who were the second-favorites behind New England. That recommendation is looking strong right now – Green Bay could be the NFL’s lone unbeaten by around 11:30 p.m. on Monday if the Bears can pull an upset in Detroit. The Packers were down 14-0 at Atlanta on Sunday and ran off 25 straight points in winning their 11th straight game dating to last season.
Aaron Rodgers has now thrown for 762 yards and five touchdowns in his last two games against the Falcons. During the winning streak, he has a sick 28 passing scores and four rushing TDs. The Packers (now 4-1 ATS) became the first defending Super Bowl Champion since the 2007 Colts to win their first five games. Two of the last five defending champs to start with at least five wins have gone on to repeat, by the way. Atlanta had won 23 in a row at home when leading at halftime.
Green Bay is a huge favorite this week at home against the Rams – who did get an extra week to prepare, so be warned, Survivor Pool participants, in what smells like a trap game – and then at Minnesota before its bye week. If the Chargers don’t get Green Bay on Nov. 6 in San Diego, look out.
Pac-12 Race Hinges On James’ Elbow
If you have a weak stomach, hopefully you didn’t see the elbow injury suffered by Oregon’s LaMichael James in Thursday’s blowout win over Cal. James had another monster game, but he gruesomely dislocated his elbow and is questionable for this week’s game against Arizona State in what could well be a Pac-12 title game preview. With all due respect to Andrew Luck and others, James has been the best player in the country of late. After getting stuffed by LSU in the Ducks’ opener, James has run for more than 200 yards in each of the last three outings, including 239 against Cal, and is averaging an FBS-best 170.4 yards per game.
If you bet on James before the season to win the Heisman (he was third last year), you better hope he does play this week (officially questionable as of now). In the modern era, only two Heisman winners have missed a game, Charles White (1979) and Charlie Ward (1993).
The Ducks have opened as 15.5-point home favorites against ASU, but I would jump all over that on the Sun Devils if James is out. Yes, Kenjon Barner is a very good No. 2 back, but that’s just too many points to give if James, as expected, sits out.
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