Monday Couch Potato: NFL Week 3/NCAA Week 4 Betting Recap
by Alan Matthews - 9/26/2011
Welcome again to the Monday coach potato, a recap of the football weekend that was. Here are a few things that caught my attention in the pro and college ranks:
Bills are for real and Pats are flawed
Certainly the story of the pro football weekend had to be the suddenly resurgent Buffalo Bills ending a 15-game losing streak (as a seven-point home dog) to the New England Bradys with an exciting 34-31 victory on Sunday to take the early lead in the AFC East. The Bills were down 21-0 in the second quarter but were able to pick Tom Brady off four times, including returning one for a score, and they won it 34-31 on Rian Lindell’s 28-yard field goal. By the way, it was Buffalo's first interception return for a touchdown at home against the Patriots since getting one its last win over New England – in the 2003 season opener. It was tied for the fourth-longest winning streak by one team over another in NFL history.
Coupled with the Bills’ comeback from 21-3 down last week against the Oakland Raiders, Buffalo (2-1 ATS this season) is the first team in NFL history to win consecutive games in which it trailed by at least 18 points in each.
Brady, meanwhile, had another monster game with 386 yards passing, pushing his total to 1,327, the NFL record through the first three games of the season. It is the most passing yards any player has over any three-game span in NFL history. But clearly something is off with that defense as the Pats are allowing 377 yards per game through the air. Wasn’t Bill Belichick supposed to be a defensive genius?
No matter what you do, take the ‘over’ anytime Buffalo or New England plays. The ‘over’ is now 3-0 for both so far.
Lions are for real too … and Vikes need to stop taking big leads
Mark me down in the category where I thought the Detroit Lions would lose this week in what looked like a huge trap game at Minnesota. And the Lions were down 20-0 at halftime, so that result looked secure. But the Matthew Stafford-Calvin Johnson combo is the best QB-WR tandem in the league right now in my opinion and those two led Detroit to the 23-20 overtime win.
Johnson had seven catches for 108 yards and two touchdowns for the Lions, who are 3-0 for the first time since 1980 (just to show how long ago that was: Barry Sanders was 12 then). They won in the Metrodome for the first time since 1997, snapping a 13-game skid. That was the fifth-longest road losing streak against one opponent in NFL history and the 20-point halftime deficit was the largest the Lions have ever overcome to win a regular-season game.
You may remember I suggested you bet on Johnson to have the most receiving touchdowns of any player this season, and he is the first player in NFL history with at least two receiving TDs in each of a team's first three games of a season.
The Vikings probably will pull the plug on Donovan McNabb sooner rather than later now. Although, to be fair, they could well be 3-0. The Vikings are just the fifth team in NFL history to start the season 0-3 after leading at halftime of all three games. And they were up by double digits in all three games.
With the comebacks by Buffalo and Detroit, it was the first time since Sept. 12, 1999, that two teams overcame 20-point deficits on the same day of the NFL season. The Lions are one of just five teams remaining who are unbeaten ATS, joining the Cowboys (playing Monday night), Panthers, Raiders (the only 3-0 ATS team; the others have one push each) and 49ers. The only winless ATS teams are the Dolphins (hello Andrew Luck!), Chargers and Rams.
On second thought ….
Last week I wrote how so many of the top NCAA games went ‘under’ the totals, and that a good defense can always slow down a good offense. Well, I still think that but the offenses stole the show over the weekend.
Missouri-Oklahoma. ‘Over’. LSU-West Virginia. ‘Over’. Florida State-Clemson. ‘Over’. Arkansas-Alabama. ‘Over’. Oregon-Arizona. ‘Over’. USC-Arizona State. ‘Over’. North Carolina-Georgia Tech. ‘Over’. Yet amazingly, the one game that seemed a lock to go ‘over,’ Oklahoma State-Texas A&M, stayed ‘under’ the total.
Speaking of LSU, the Tigers quite clearly deserve to be No. 1 in the polls and they did rise there on Monday following yet another impressive win over a ranked foe. Despite allowing 463 yards passing to WVU’s Geno Smith, the Tigers held high-powered WVU to just 21 points in spanking the Mountaineers by 26. LSU had allowed only 480 passing yards on the season before Saturday, but in fairness it took Smith a whopping 62 attempts to get that big number. And the Tigers forced four turnovers and QB Jarrett Lee again managed the game well and didn’t make any mistakes. Even if Jordan Jefferson is allowed back, the job is now Lee’s.
LSU is ranked No. 1 in the nation for the first time during the regular season since November, 2007. LSU is 14-3 all-time in games played as the nation’s No. 1 team, including a 2-2 mark under Les Miles. I actually love Kentucky (+29.5) this week at LSU because it screams letdown game for the Tigers, who then have Florida after the Wildcats. Certainly they won’t lose to UK but probably will be sluggish. LSU’s one non-cover so far came in a similar letdown game vs. Northwestern State.
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