Don’t forget.

The nonconference portion of the college basketball season has essentially come to a close. Sure, there are some marquee interleague games still on the college basketball schedule. And Bracket Buster Saturday in late February is still a critical event when it comes to predicting the NCAA Tournament field. But for all intents and purposes, the national battles have come to a détente and it is now time for teams to retreat into their own backyards to wager bi-weekly knife fights with their hated rivals in conference play.

However, we can’t forget what we have seen up until this point. There have been some excellent pre-conference tournaments and some really thrilling nonconference games this November and December. And the intensity of those games can rival anything that we are going to see in league play this year. But I often feel like crucial wins in the nonconference schedule are perpetually undervalued by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee, which, somewhat lazily, chooses to reward teams for late season success instead of equally valuing their early season conquests.

There are teams that have essentially punched their tickets with their play in the nonconference portion of the college basketball season. There are also other teams that have put themselves in position for an at-large bid, or at least to be in the discussion come early March, because of some tough scheduling, a key upset, or a fast start.

There is a lot of basketball yet to be played. But below are my NCAA Tournament field projections and predictions based on what I have seen through the nonconference portion of the season:

Atlantic-10 (Projected Teams: 3)
In: Xavier, St. Louis
Bubble: Temple, St. Joseph’s
Skinny:Things here are pretty static in the A-10, and I think that this year this league is the best mid-major conference in the country (Sorry, Mountain West.). Xavier has been on a slide since that Cincinnati brawl, but they are still more than safe. And St. Louis is just wrecking people at 12-1 straight up and 7-2 against the spread. They are the real deal. Temple will be fine once the Owls get healthy. It is unfortunate they won’t take Duke on at full strength but that will still help their RPI. St. Joseph’s is the new guy on the list. The Hawks have key wins over Creighton and Villanova and with a game against Harvard on deck they have a chance to get another big ‘W’. This will be a team to watch as league play begins.

ACC (Projected Teams: 5)
In: Duke, North Carolina, Virginia
Bubble: Miami,Florida State, N.C. State, Virginia Tech
Skinny: I have put Virginia in and I think that they will prove it soon enough. They are 11-1 and there is no way that the ACC would only get three teams, so they get the nod. The rest of the teams obviously still have work to do and I think that a fourth team will arise in conference play. Miami is a team to keep an eye out for. The Hurricanes don’t have any bad losses and they are just starting to get healthy with Reggie Johnson coming back a couple weeks ago. I think that they and Florida State – which has not beaten a team in the Top 125 yet – are the most likely to rise up.

Big 12 (Projected Teams: 6)
In: Kansas, Missouri, Baylor
Bubble: Oklahoma State, Texas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M
Skinny: Nothing has changed here and no one from the second-tier has done anything to inspire much confidence. Oklahoma State is young and all over the map. Texas may still have people convinced that they are a pretty good team, but they are not. Their best win was over a half-strength Temple team and beyond that they have lost to Oregon State and N.C. State. Texas A&M was humiliated by Florida and lost to Rice. They have done absolutely nothing to garner consideration and they have the most work to do. Oklahoma was screwed at Cincinnati, and that 56-55 loss is one that will come back to haunt them in a game that they led for virtually the entire time.

Big East (Projected Teams: 8)
In: Syracuse, Louisville, Marquette, Connecticut, Georgetown, West Virginia
Bubble: Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Villanova,
Skinny: Surprisingly, I think that Georgetown has already punched its ticket. The Hoyas swept Memphis, won at Alabama, and now they have a road win at Louisville. They have been one of the biggest surprises in the country, in my opinion. I had to put Pitt back on the bubble. The Panthers don’t have a single marquee win and they have some bad losses to Wagner and Notre Dame. This team is a shell. I think they will work their way in but I don’t know that Cincinnati or Villanova will. Neither team has beaten ANYONE and I think that after a couple record-setting seasons for the Big East they are going to come back to earth with only about seven bids.

Big Ten (Projected Teams: 8)
In: Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Michigan State
Bubble: Illinois, Northwestern
Skinny: Indiana punched its ticket with its marquee win over Kentucky. Illinois has a win over Gonzaga and some close losses. But I still think that they have work to do. Northwestern threw up blanks in the nonconference and Baylor and Ohio State have destroyed them. Sorry, Wildcats, but I don’t think that this is your year – AGAIN. Minnesota is another team that is not on my list because I don’t think that their nonconference resume warrants it and I don’t see them set up for some serious run in the Big Ten.

Conference USA (Projected Teams: 1)
In: None
Bubble: Marshall, Central Florida, Tulsa, Memphis
Skinny: If you ask me, Memphis has been the biggest flop in the country in the nonconference portion of the season. They were one of the most overrated teams in the nation. And even though they have played a Top 20 schedule they haven’t beaten anyone. Their best win is either a home victory against Belmont or against Miami. That’s pretty flimsy. I also don’t think that any of their cohorts from CUSA have done anything to distinguish themselves either, so it looks like this will be a one-bid league once again.

Missouri Valley (Projected Teams: 2)
In: Creighton
Bubble: Indiana State, Wichita State, Northern Iowa
Skinny: I don’t think that Wichita State has necessarily done enough to punch its ticket (their best nonconference win was over UNLV). However, this team is good enough to make its mark in The Valley and I think they will do enough to get into The Dance. Indiana State is going to be an interesting case. They have a marquee win over Vanderbilt (similar to UCF’s big win over Connecticut), but I don’t know if ISU will play well enough in conference play to really build a well-rounded resume.

Mountain West (Projected Teams: 2)
In: UNLV
Bubble: San Diego State, Boise State, New Mexico
Skinny: San Diego State has had a very good month. They have marquee wins over Arizona and Cal, as well as wins over the likely Big West winner, be it UC-Santa Barbara or Long Beach State. As long as they don’t flop, they should be in. New Mexico still has work to do but they have a quality team and they have the benefit of this being a down year in leagues like the ACC and Big East.

Pac-10 (Projected Teams: 5)
In: California
Bubble: Washington, Stanford, Arizona, Oregon State, Oregon
Skinny: I know it seems odd that I still have Arizona on the bubble. But their best two wins this year have come against Clemson and New Mexico State. They have played in a lot of big games but they haven’t won them. This league still has a lot to shake out. But when the dust settles I think that Washington, Stanford, Arizona and then one of the Oregon teams will find their way in.

SEC (Projected Teams: 5)
In:Alabama, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Florida, Mississippi State
Bubble: LSU
Skinny: The SEC has had as strong of a nonconference, as a league, as any BCS conference in the country. I think that their five tournament teams are all very solid and I think that every one of them has the goods to make it into the NCAA Tournament’s second weekend. I took Tennessee off the bubble. (They are a mess.) And I put LSU on it. The Tigers have been a pet team of mine and they have a nice win over Marquette. But they are shaky as hell and their schedule is rated No. 307 at the moment. They are very much a long shot.

WAC (Projected Teams: 1)
In: None
Bubble: New Mexico State, Utah State, Nevada
Skinny: I have added Nevada to the bubble simply because I think that they are right there with NMSU and USU in terms of winning the conference. This is clearly a one-bid league, but it is going to be a heck of a battle between these three clubs. And whoever does emerge from this league is going to be a lot to handle in that opening game.

WCC (Projected Teams: 2)
In: Gonzaga
Bubble: BYU, St. Mary’s
Skinny: BYU got its first taste of life in the WCC when they were blown out at St. Mary’s. They still have a lot of work to do, though, because they lost their biggest nonconference tilts against Wisconsin and Baylor. St. Mary’s gets credit for beating BYU, but their best wins have been against Northern Iowa and Missouri State. All told, I think that it has been a disappointing opening couple months for this supposedly improving league.

Big West (Projected Teams: 2)
In: Long Beach State
Bubble: Cal State Fullerton, Cal Poly
Skinny:There is no doubt in my mind that Long Beach State has done enough to warrant an at-large bid. But they are going to lose some games in a very top-heavy and competitive Big West this year. But they’ve played a great schedule and have wins over Pittsburgh and Xavier this year. They are obviously one of the best 65 teams in the country, but stranger things have happened.

Automatic Bid Leagues (Projected Teams: 18):
America East – Boston University
Atlantic Sun – Belmont
Big Sky – Weber State
Big South – UNC-Asheville
Colonial – VCU
Horizon – Cleveland State
Ivy League – Harvard
Metro – Iona
Mid-American – Buffalo
MEAC – Morgan State
Northeast – Central Connecticut
Ohio Valley – Tennessee State
Patriot League – Bucknell
Southern – Davidson
Southland – UT-San Antonio
SWAC – Mississippi Valley State
Summit – South Dakota State
Sun Belt – Denver

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