Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin, who won his first Sprint Cup race of the year at Michigan last week, will attempt a three-peat at Infineon Raceway in Sonoma, California, as NASCAR heads out to wine country for the first road course race of the season this Sunday.

Gamblers should note that during the last six years the trend at Infineon has been six different winners; Tony Stewart (2005), Jeff Gordon (2006), Juan Pablo Montoya (2007), Kyle Busch (2008) and Kasey Kahne (2009) and Jimmie Johnson (2010). Hendrick Motorsports has the most wins of any NASCAR team at Infineon with six; five wins came from Jeff Gordon and one from Johnson, while Stewart is the only other active driver with multiple victories at Sonoma.

NASCAR Predictions: Who will win the Toyota/Save Mart 350?

Don’t look now, but he’s back! After Michigan Kevin Harvick moved up two spots from fourth to second in the Sprint Cup standings and now is only 20 points behind Carl Edwards in first. Last year Harvick had a 22 point lead over Kyle Busch going into Sonoma before ultimately losing the Chase to Johnson. Last year Harvick finished third after starting fourth and also benefited from Ambrose’s poor restart. In 2009 Harvick finished 29th and in 2008 he finished 30th. So finishing well at Infineon is more of an anomaly for Harvick than the rule. Meanwhile, Kyle won this race in 2008 but has not been in the winners circle since. Denny Hamlin will look for his second consecutive win and moved up three spots in the standings to ninth place after Michigan. It looks like Hamlin’s fortunes are slowly reversing, but on the road I am not eager to back the No. 11 car.
 
If you are thinking about investing in defending champion Jimmie Johnson, you could have gotten +1500 last year when he won his first race at Sonoma. This year the odds have halved to +700. Another driver you won’t want to overlook is Jeff Gordon, who has not finished out of the Top 10 at Infineon in four races. And in the last seven races at Sonoma he has won two races, notched four Top-5s and six Top-10 finishes. At Michigan, despite an ill-handling car, Gordon managed to finish fourth and he’ll definitely look to build on that momentum at one his best tracks on the NASCAR circuit. However, keep in mind that HMS drivers did not race well last week, Johnson lost three spots and dropped to fifth place and Jeff Gordon lost one point to drop to 12th place. Both drivers will look to the road race to improve on their Sprint Cup standings. 

After leading for most of last year’s race, a late race restart and a stall on the final hill left road specialist Marcos Ambrose on the outside looking in and finishing the race a frustrating seventh place. The year before Ambrose finished third place finish at Infineon, so it is not likely that the road course-specialist Ambrose is going to sneak up on anyone this year (especially the bookmakers). Ambrose will look to wipe away the field as he has quietly been putting together the best Sprint Cup season of his career. Ambrose finished 23rd after starting 17th last week at MIS. In his two previous races, however, Ambrose finished sixth and third, respectively. Ambrose has a ton of experience driving right and is always dangerous when it comes to the road courses. There is no doubt that Ambrose will be running in with the lead pack for most of the 110 laps. While Ambrose has not won in three starts at Sonoma, he should have won last year. Ambrose will win this year if he doesn’t stall on the final restart.

Pick! Marcos Ambrose, No. 9, +375
 
Toyota/Save Mart 350 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special 

Juan Pablo Montoya returns to the track of his first Sprint Cup win, Infineon 2007. The ex-open wheel racer loves escaping the confines of the cookie-cutter tracks and super-speedways for the freedom of the road courses that are natural for a Euro-trash racer (rapid acceleration followed by maniacal breaking, and right turns; nothing better for the F1 soul). JPM’s NASCAR season currently sees him in 15th place in the standings,, better than last year at this time (going into Sonoma in 2010 JPM was in 20th place) in the NSCS standings, but he has a great chance to shave off some of the 121 points from Carl Edwards’ lead and an even better chance of closing the 46-point gap between 15th and 10th place. Montoya sports a 111.3 driver rating at Infineon, good enough for second best behind Stewart, who holds a 113.2 rating. JPM’s 4.3 average finish at Infineon isn’t bad either, which makes him my pick to end his winless drought and win the Toyota/Save Mart 350 as my Long Odds Lucky Dog selection.

Pick! Juan Pablo Montoya, No. 42, (+700)

Toyota/Save Mart 350 - Finish in the Top-Three

Thanks to a string of finishes outside of the Top 10, Tony Stewart finds himself facing the very real possibility of missing the Chase for Stewart-Haas Racing. Stewart is currently one point out of the Top 10. Despite finishing seventh place in last week’s race Stewart dropped two spots in the Sprint Cup standings. In fact, Stewart looks like he’s found his groove from last year with his third straight Top-10 finish at Michigan. When it comes to Infineon Raceway, few drivers are better than “Smoke.” Stewart comes to Sonoma with two wins and eight Top-10 finishes in 12 starts at the tricky road course. Stewart is looking for his fifth straight Top-10 finish and sixth in his last seven races. Love him or hate him, it appears that Smoke is starting to find his form, which makes him my pick to finish in the Top 3 at the Toyota/Save Mart 350 on Sunday. 

Pick! Tony Stewart, No. 14, (+180)

Odds to finish Top-Three – Toyota/Save Mart 350
Infineon Raceway, Sonoma, CA – June 26, 2011 3:19 p.m.

AJ Allmendinger         +1500 
Andy Lally                  +1800 
Boris Said                   +600 
Brad Keselowski         +3000 
Brian Vickers              +3000 
Carl Edwards              +600 
Clint Bowyer              +1500 
Dale Earnhardt Jr        +1500 
David Ragan               +3000 
Denny Hamlin             +900 
Greg Biffle                  +1500 
Jamie McMurray         +1000 
Jeff Burton                  +3000 
Jeff Gordon                            +200 
Jimmie Johnson           +200 
Joey Logano                +3000 
Juan Pablo Montoya    +200 
Kasey Kahne               +1000 
Kevin Harvick             +350 
Kurt Busch                  +450 
Kyle Busch                 +200 
Marcos Ambrose         +125 
Mark Martin                +3000 
Martin Truex Jr           +3000 
Matt Kenseth              +3000 
Paul Menard                +1500 
Robby Gordon            +600 
Ryan Newman            +1000 
Tony Stewart              +180 
Field                            +800 
           
           
Odds to win - Toyota/Save Mart 350
Infineon Raceway, Sonoma, CA – June 26, 2011 3:19 p.m.

AJ Allmendinger         +5000 
Andy Lally                  +6000 
Boris Said                   +2000 
Brad Keselowski         +10000 
Brian Vickers              +10000 
Carl Edwards              +2000 
Clint Bowyer              +5000 
Dale Earnhardt Jr        +4500 
David Ragan               +10000 
Denny Hamlin             +3000 
Greg Biffle                  +5000 
Jamie McMurray         +3500 
Jeff Burton                  +10000 
Jeff Gordon                            +700 
Jimmie Johnson           +700 
Joey Logano                +10000 
Juan Pablo Montoya    +700 
Kasey Kahne               +3500 
Kevin Harvick             +1200 
Kurt Busch                  +1500 
Kyle Busch                 +700 
Marcos Ambrose         +375 
Mark Martin                +10000 
Martin Truex Jr           +10000 
Matt Kenseth              +10000 
Paul Menard                +5000 
Robby Gordon            +2000 
Ryan Newman            +3500 
Tony Stewart              +600 
Field                            +3000