NASCAR visits the 1.5-mile Kentucky Speedway, a new track for Sprint Cup, for the first time in ten years on Saturday night as the good folks of the Bluegrass State experience the first-ever Sprint Cup race on Saturday, July 9 at 7:46 p.m. EST for the Quaker State 400. 

Auto sport investors would do well to keep in mind that in Testing at Kentucky Session 2, Kyle Busch was three seconds faster than Jimmie Johnson, who was the fastest in Session 1. Jeff Gordon has won four times on inaugural tracks while Kevin Harvick is bringing the same car he won with at Michigan last season. Joey Logano leads all active drivers with three Nationwide wins at Kentucky.

NASCAR Odds: Who will win the Quaker State 400?

Kentucky Speedway is sold out for its Sprint Cup debut on Saturday night. About 107,000 die-hard NASCAR fans will be there to witness a spectacle that is the culmination of years of dirt-track and pavement racing in the tri-state area. It will be worth watching this race because most fans aren’t familiar with Kentcuky Speedway, and it is a new track to become familiar with.

A new track makes handicapping the race difficult since the data is sparse and there are no clear-cut trends on how the Speedway will behave at night versus day, and so forth. One method is to compare a track like Kentucky to a track like Kansas due to the ‘cookie-cutter’ similarity of the two tracks. Therefore, if you ran well at Kansas then chances are good that you’ll run well at Kentucky. This must be great news for Brad Keselowski and Kurt Busch. Keselowski won at Kansas while Busch won the pole there earlier this year. I am not so sure I buy this logic, but if you throw in some more information it might not be the worst idea to back Keselowski again at +5000 just for fun.

Speaking of Kurt Busch, he followed up three consecutive poles with a win, and during this time there have been a lot of ‘ones’ showing up. While I am not a numerologist, I’m sure this means something: On June 19 Busch started first and finished 11th then in his next race on June 26th Busch started 11th and finished first. Of course, this weird series of ‘ones’ was shattered last week when Bush started 25th and finished 14th. Busch held his seventh-place position in the Sprint Cup standings, but is only 16 points behind new points leader Harvick.

Meanwhile, Carl Edwards has lost his hold on first place and falls to second place, a scant five points behind Harvick. Kyle Busch leapfrogged two spots over his brother to third place and is now 10 points behind the leader. Dale Earnhardt, Jr., who had come on so strong early in the season, has faded in his last three races, finishing no better than 19th place, and it looks as if his confidence is shaken. Let’s hope Junior stops this slide before it really gets going.    

Pick! Kurt Busch, No. 16, +750

Quaker State 400 Lucky Dog Long Odds
 
Joe Gibbs Racing’s Joey Logano is in his third year of Sprint Cup and is still looking for a breakthrough win. A win could come this weekend at Kentucky since Logano has notched three Nationwide wins in three starts at the track where NASCAR will be racing on Saturday night. Logano has not achieved the sort of success that most fans were expecting this season. It appeared that he was turning the corner after Sonoma where he won the pole and finished sixth on the road course. The last week at Daytona he won the Nationwide race and managed to finish third the next day at the 400, which puts huge expectations on the No. 20 car this week in Kentucky. Logano seems to be turning his season around, but is it enough to overcome a poor start to the season? Unfortunately, at the Daytona 500 he finished 23 rd and then the following week at Phoenix his engine blew up. Logano is currently 20th in the standings and he has built some serious momentum in his past two races. If he wants to make the Chase this year he still needs to shave off eight spots, and winning at Kentucky is a good place for the young lad to start.
 
Pick! Joey Logano, No. 20, +2000

Quaker State 400 Top-Three Finish

While Kentucky Speedway is like a used car -- it’s been around and been driven hard – it’s still new to you. Kentucky is a regular stop on the Nationwide tour and Harvick has raced at Kentucky Speedway since 2001. Like a lot of drivers, Harvick is very familiar with the track. Harvick won the 2001 Nationwide race there, but finished sixth in 2006, the last time he raced at the Speedway. However, now that Harvick is in first place, the pressure is on to keep racing well. Harvick can handle pressure and he seems to thrive on two things: pressure and opportunity. Now that he’s been given the opportunity I fully expect him to kick open the Sprint Cup door.

Pick! Kevin Harvick, No. 29, +300

Quaker State 400 – Odds to finish Top-Three
Kentucky Speedway – July 9, 2011 7:46 p.m.

601      AJ Allmendinger        +2000  
602      Bobby Labonte          +3000  
603      Brad Keselowski        +1800  
604      Brian Vickers             +1000  
605      Carl Edwards             +200  
606      Clint Bowyer             +550  
607      Dale Earnhardt Jr       +450  
608      David Ragan              +1500  
609      David Reutimann       +1600  
610      Denny Hamlin            +300 
611      Greg Biffle                 +300 
612      Jamie McMurray        +1800  
613      Jeff Burton                +1000 
614      Jeff Gordon               +300  
615      Jimmie Johnson          +200  
616      Joey Logano               +650  
617      Juan Pablo Montoya  +1000  
618      Kasey Kahne              +700  
619      Kevin Harvick            +300  
620      Kurt Busch                +200  
621      Kyle Busch                            +200 
622      Marcos Ambrose        +2000 
623      Mark Martin               +1200  
624      Martin Truex Jr          +1200  
625      Matt Kenseth             +350  
626      Paul Menard               +2000  
627      Regan Smith              +3000  
628      Ryan Newman           +900  
629      Tony Stewart             +300  
630      Field                           +1500

Quaker State 400 – Odds to win
Kentucky Speedway – July 9, 2011 7:46 p.m.

501      AJ Allmendinger        +7000  
502      Bobby Labonte          +9000  
503      Brad Keselowski        +5000  
504      Brian Vickers             +4000  
505      Carl Edwards             +700  
506      Clint Bowyer             +2000  
507      Dale Earnhardt Jr       +1400  
508      David Ragan              +5000  
509      David Reutimann       +5000  
510      Denny Hamlin            +1000  
511      Greg Biffle                +1200  
512      Jamie McMurray        +5000  
513      Jeff Burton                +4000  
514      Jeff Gordon               +1000  
515      Jimmie Johnson          +800  
516      Joey Logano               +2000  
517      Juan Pablo Montoya  +4000  
518      Kasey Kahne              +2000  
519      Kevin Harvick            +1000  
520      Kurt Busch                +700  
521      Kyle Busch                            +750  
522      Marcos Ambrose        +5000  
523      Mark Martin               +4000  
524      Martin Truex Jr          +4000  
525      Matt Kenseth             +1200  
526      Paul Menard               +7000  
527      Regan Smith              +9000  
528      Ryan Newman           +2500  
529      Tony Stewart             +1000  
530      Field                           +4000