NASCAR: Good Sam RV Insurance 500 Odds and Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard - 8/5/2011
Sprint Cup points leader Carl Edwards inked a multi-year deal this week to stay at Roush Fenway Racing through 2012 and beyond. Now Edwards can concentrate on the “Tricky-Triangle” of Pocono Raceway as NASCAR heads to the Keystone State for the Good Sam RV Insurance 500 this Sunday at 1:18 p.m.
NASCAR enthusiasts looking to earn a few extra bucks on this race should keep in mind that Jeff Gordon and Bill Eliot lead all drivers with five victories each at Pocono. Twenty nine different drivers have won at Pocono, with 20 drivers winning more than one race. Denny Hamlin (8.2) and Jimmie Johnson (9.5) are the only active drivers with Top-10 average finishes at Pocono. Hendrick Motorsports leads all car owners with 12 wins at the track. Finally, this year NASCAR has added shifting to the mix at Pocono. This added element should give the drivers something to do over the 2.5 mile track, but it also adds to the skill of the sport since shifting correctly will is so important for the vehicles’ delicate gear-boxes.
Who will win the Good Sam RV Insurance 500?
Jeff Gordon will attempt a season sweep at Pocono and prove that he is the flat-track king this year. Gordon is coming off a second-place finish at the Brickyard last week and he did not move from his seventh-place position in the standings last week. Gordon is still 52 points out of the lead, but is in a comfortable position with a handful of races before the Chase starts next month. However, Gordon’s numbers at Pocono are almost obscene. In 37 career starts at Pocono he has put together 17 Top-5 and 26 Top-10 finishes, and in the last five Pocono races he has notched four Top-10 finishes. Gordon’s team looks solid right now, and although I am not backing Gordon this week, he is definitely worth serious consideration in win-market or top-three betting.
Edwards must be feeling pretty good about his chances to win the Sprint Cup with Roush Fenway Racing as Cousin’ Carl ignored huge money (and engine troubles) from Joe Gibbs Racing and stayed in the fold. He was his own agent and the details of the deal were not released other than the fact that Edwards will be RFR’s go-to driver over the next few years. Edwards last won this race in 2008 and he also won at Pocono in 2005. Edwards finished the race 37th last year, and he has notched only one Top-10 in the past four races.
Four-time Pocono winner Denny Hamlin led the June race for 76 laps before the No. 11 car got a flat and Hamlin finished 19th. This weekend, as long as his engine doesn’t blow-up, he has got to be considered the driver to beat on Sunday since, along with his four wins at Pocono, he had eight Top-10s in 11 starts. Hamlin is in 11th place and currently 19 points behind Dale Earnhardt, Jr. who occupies 10th place in the Sprint Cup standings. Hamlin will need to get into the Top 1- if he hopes to make the Chase next month. Pocono is Hamlin’s best track, and a win will vault him into the Top 10.
Pick! Denny Hamlin, No. 11, +350
Good Sam RV Insurance 500 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special
Joey Logano lost a spot last week to fall to 19th place in the Sprint Cup and 77 points out of the Top 10. Logano has slowly become a better flat-track driver. At Loudon a few weeks ago Logano finished in fourth place, and in the June race at Pocono he finished 11th; good enough for his best finish in five starts at Pocono. However, Logano faltered last week as he ran into all kinds of problems at the Brickyard, finishing 25th. This weekend he’ll try to get back on track and perhaps win on fuel mileage (as long as his engine doesn’t blow up).
Pick! Joey Logano, No. 20, +5000
Good Sam RV Insurance 500 – Odds for Top 3 Finish
Driving the double-deuce has paid dividends for Kurt Busch this year. Busch is currently 18 points out of first place, and he is solidly in sixth place in the Sprint Cup standings. Bush fell three spots from third last week thanks to his 21st-place finish at the Brickyard. However, the elder Busch has been pretty good at Pocono with three Top-10 finishes in his last four starts. In 21 starts at Pocono Busch has recorded eight Top-5s and 11 Top-10 finishes and has won twice at Pocono (July 2005, August 2007). In June Busch started from the Pole and finished in second place. While he may not win this race, he has the stones to finish in the Top 3.
Pick! Kurt Busch, No. 22, +300
Good Sam RV Insurance 500 – Odds for Top 3 Finish
Pocono Raceway, Long Pond, PA - August 7, 2011
150 AJ Allmendinger +2000
151 Bobby Labonte +3000
152 Brad Keselowski +1200
153 Brian Vickers +2000
154 Carl Edwards +250
155 Clint Bowyer +900
156 Dale Earnhardt Jr +900
157 David Ragan +1500
158 David Reutimann +2000
159 Denny Hamlin +120
160 Greg Biffle +600
161 Jamie McMurray +3000
162 Jeff Burton +1500
163 Jeff Gordon +150
164 Jimmie Johnson +150
165 Joey Logano +1500
166 Juan Pablo Montoya +1000
167 Kasey Kahne +900
168 Kevin Harvick +350
169 Kurt Busch +300
170 Kyle Busch +300
171 Marcos Ambrose +3000
172 Mark Martin +1500
173 Martin Truex Jr +1800
174 Matt Kenseth +300
175 Paul Menard +1800
176 Regan Smith +3000
177 Ryan Newman +900
178 Tony Stewart +350
179 Field (Any Other Driver) +3000
Kobalt Tools 400 – Odds to Win
Pocono Raceway, Long Pond, PA - August 7, 2011
101 AJ Allmendinger +7000
102 Bobby Labonte +8000
103 Brad Keselowski +4000
104 Brian Vickers +7000
105 Carl Edwards +800
106 Clint Bowyer +3000
107 Dale Earnhardt Jr +3000
108 David Ragan +5000
109 David Reutimann +7000
110 Denny Hamlin +350
111 Greg Biffle +2000
112 Jamie McMurray +8000
113 Jeff Burton +5000
114 Jeff Gordon +500
115 Jimmie Johnson +500
116 Joey Logano +5000
117 Juan Pablo Montoya +4000
118 Kasey Kahne +3000
119 Kevin Harvick +1200
120 Kurt Busch +900
121 Kyle Busch +1000
122 Marcos Ambrose +8000
123 Mark Martin +5000
124 Martin Truex Jr +6000
125 Matt Kenseth +1500
126 Paul Menard +6000
127 Regan Smith +8000
128 Ryan Newman +3000
129 Tony Stewart +1200
130 Field +8000
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