Despite winning the AAA 500 last week, his fourth win in the Chase for the Sprint Cup, Tony Stewart is still three points behind Carl Edwards, who has yet to win a Chase race this season, as NASCAR heads to Phoenix International Raceway on Sunday Nov.13, at 3:15 p.m. (EST) for the penultimate race of the Sprint Cup season, the Kobalt Tools 500.

If you are interested in taking a position in PIR on Sunday then keep in mind the “Rule of Four”. Jimmie Johnson has the best active driver average finish (4.8). Johnson leads all active drivers with four wins at PIR. Mark Martin has 12 Top-5 finishes and the second best average finish (8.8). Jeff Gordon rounds out the Top-3 average finish (10.0).  Ryan Newman leads all active drivers with four poles. Newman’s next pole win will be his 50th.

Coincidently, this race has been won from the pole four times I the past four years by Jeff Gordon (2007), Jimmie Johnson (2008), Mark Martin (2009) and Carl Edwards (2010). Will the pole-sitter trend continue this year at PIR?

Who will win the Kobalt Tools 500? 

Kyle Busch managed to show his “Rowdy” colors once again in last weekend’s Truck race when he over-reacted to being cut-off by Ron Hornaday and purposely wrecked Hornaday and then parked on the track, allowing Harvick to win the race. As a result Kyle was suspended for two NASCAR races and ends up not being able to close a Chase once again.

As a result of his suspension, Kyle dropped four places in the standings to 11th place and is out of the Chase by 100 points. While Kyle has talent to spare when it comes to racing, he’ll never win a Sprint Cup Championship if he continues to let his emotions get the better of him. Watch out for Kyle on Sunday now that he has nothing to lose. I expect him to go all out and try to get another win before the end of the season. 

Edwards managed to stay in first place thanks to his second-place finish at the AAA 500. A finish of fifth or worst and Stewart, the race winner, would have sailed into first place and been rather hard to catch with only Homestead standing in the way of the Sprint Cup. Even though Stewart won his fourth race of the Sprint Cup Chase, or his fourth win in the last eight starts, he is still in second place.

The good news for Edwards is that not only is he the defending race winner at PIR, he won it from the pole last November. In the Spring race Edwards qualified first again, but he lost to Jeff Gordon and ultimately finished the race 28th place after leading for 21 laps. Edwards has another great shot to win on Sunday since the Sprint Cup championship is so close he can almost taste it. With Homestead being one of Edwards’ better tracks (you’ll recall he won out last year and now it looks like it was the turning point to this year’s success) Cousin’ Carl needs to be able to deal with the resurfaced track and adjust for the range of conditions that racing in the desert brings.

Kevin Harvick finds himself on the outside looking in with too many “3s” next to his name. He is 33-points out of first in third place. The only way for Harvick to win the Chase is to win outright and have his opponents do very poorly in the next two races. Harvick finished fourth in the Spring race behind Johnson, who finished third. Something tells me the winner will either come from one of these two drivers. I like Johnson because he is the best at PIR and a consummate professional, and I like Harvick because he needs two wins to win the Sprint Cup. Harvick has also swept both PIR races in 2006.

Pick! Jimmie Johnson, No. 48, (+750)

Kobalt Tools 500 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special

Matt Kenseth lost a golden opportunity to close in on Edwards at the AAA 500 and was in position for the most of the race to get the win until the end of the race when he finished fourth. Unfortunately, two drivers he didn’t need to finish strong did. Kenseth did move up one point to fourth place and 38 points out of the standings, but he needs too much help now to win the Championship. Kenseth won at PIR in 2002 for his only win, but hasn’t had too much luck otherwise at Phoenix, although Kenseth did finish in seventh place in this race last year. 

Pick! Matt Kenseth, No. 17, (+1250)

Kobalt Tools 500 – Odds* to Win
Phoenix International Raceway, November 13, 2011

Jimmie Johnson  +750
Carl Edwards      +750
Kyle Busch          +850
Denny Hamlin    +1250
Jeff Gordon        +750
Kevin Harvick     +1225
Tony Stewart      +650
Matt Kenseth     +1250
Kurt Busch         +2100
Dale Earnhardt Jr +3200
Clint Bowyer       +1550
Ryan Newman   +2100
Brad Keselowski +2100
Mark Martin        +4200
Jeff Burton          +4200
Greg Biffle          +1850
Joey Logano      +1800
Juan Montoya    +1800
Jamie McMurray +5300
Kasey Kahne      +1850 
David Reutimann +1850
Martin Truex Jr    +5300
Brian Vickers       +1800
David Ragan       +1800
AJ Allmendinger  +1800