Kevin Harvick and Carl Edwards lead the Chase for the Sprint Cup, but only 13 points separate first from fifth place as NASCAR heads to Kansas Speedway for the Hollywood Casino 400 on Sunday at 2:14 p.m..

NASCAR investors looking for an edge on Sunday should keep in mind that there have been 11 races at Kansas. Greg Biffle, Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart have won twice at Kansas, but eight different drivers have recorded victories overall. Jimmie Johnson won from the pole in 2008 and leads all active drivers with three poles at Kansas. The only time Gordon has not finished in the top-ten was in 2004 (13th) and 2006 (39th). Four of 11 races at Kansas have been won on fuel mileage. Brad Keselowski won the June race with Dale Earnhardt, Jr. a close second. Biffle is this race’s defending champion.

Who will win the Hollywood Casino 400?

Kurt Busch surprised everyone but himself as he took home the checkers at Dover last Sunday. His win combined with a disastrous race for eight chasers catapulted Kurt six spots to third place in the Sprint Cup standings, nine points behind the leader after three Chase races. Harvick moved to first place and Edwards moved up three spots to tie for first in points, but gets second place because of his one win to Harvick’s four wins this season. Johnson benefited from his second-place finish and moved five spots back up the ladder to fifth place and 13 points off the pace.

This weekend the fuel mileage game is sure to come into a factor due to the 267 laps and the fact that the pit-window will land squarely on who can wheeze across the finish. If you believe that this race will come down to fuel mileage than you have to consider fume-expert Stewart, who has already won the first two Chase races thanks to excellent fuel strategy. Smoke lost two spots after Dover and is currently in third place, but that could change with a solid finish this weekend.

Unfortunately for Stewart, Johnson is nipping at his heels; a scant five-points behind him fifth place. Johnson last won at Kansas in 2008 and it was obvious at Dover that Johnson has the field exactly where he wants them. Stewart isn’t the only driver who can play the fuel mileage game, and if it comes down to fuel management the tandem of Crew Chief Chad Knaus/Johnson are not slouches either.

Perhaps the biggest loser in the 2011 Chase sweepstakes was Keselowski, the June race winner, who lost three spots and looked human once again after Dover. However, don’t count him out. Keselowksi has won three races this season, and the only time there has been consecutive wins was by Jeff Gordon in 2001-02.

As hot as Gordon was heading into the Chase, Jeff cooled off as did Dale Junior. Both Hendrick Motorsports drivers dropped four spots last week to ninth and 10th, respectively. Junior Nation should take solace that Dale finished second in June, so he’ll be looking to get back into the Top 5 this weekend as well.
 
Pick! Jimmie Johnson, No. 48, +750

Hollywood Casino 400 Lucky Dog Long Odds
 
What’s happened to Kyle Busch? If there is a time for Kyle to start winning races it is now. Busch has been a virtual non-factor in the first three Chase races. There is a glimmer of hope as four of the last seven races are on 1.5-mile tracks. This could be the spark for a turnaround for Busch, as he needs to jump-start his quest for his first Sprint Cup. Plain and simple, despite his past results at Kansas (one Top-10 finish in the last seven races), he need a big race and that is why I am backing him for my long-odds pick..
 
Pick! Kyle Busch, No. 18, +850
  
Hollywood Casino 400 – Odds to win
Kansas Speedway – Oct. 9, 2011 2:14 p.m.
 
Jimmie Johnson +750
Carl Edwards +800
Kyle Busch +850
Denny Hamlin +1800
Jeff Gordon +850
Kevin Harvick +1200
Tony Stewart +850
Matt Kenseth +1200
Kurt Busch +950
Dale Earnhardt Jr +3300
Clint Bowyer +3300
Mark Martin +3300
Jeff Burton +4400
Greg Biffle +1900
Joey Logano +5500
Juan Pablo Montoya +5500
Jamie McMurray +5500
Ryan Newman +3300
Kasey Kahne +2700
David Reutimann +5500
Martin Truex Jr +4400
Brian Vickers +4400
David Ragan +4400
Brad Keselowski +1500
AJ Allmendinger +5500
FIELD +3000

*Odds courtesy of 5Dimes.com