Kevin Harvick’s controversial win in the final race of the regular season last week propelled No. 29 into a two-way tie for first place with Kyle Busch as NASCAR heads to Chicagoland Speedway for the GEICO 400 on Sunday, Sept. 18 at 2:14 p.m. for the first of 10 races that comprise the Chase for the Sprint Cup.

Speaking of Harvick, he is tied with Tony Stewart for most wins at Chicagoland (two), but Harvick hasn’t won since 2002 and Stewart last won in 2007. David Reutimann is the race’s defending champion. In 2010 Reutimann started from seventh. The 14-spot on the starting grid, however, has won twice (2003, ’09), the most of any starting position at Chicagoland. Keep in mind that only one race (10 percent) has been won from the Top 5 and four races (40 percent) have been won from the Top 10.        

Who will win the Geico 400?

The final race of the regular season was not without conflict as Jeff Gordon questioned Harvick’s win at Richmond. Essentially, Gordon had been battling Harvick for the lead. Eventually he out-dueled Harvick and led in the late stages of the race until a caution for Paul Menard’s spin out came out. Gordon called this “fishy” since when reviewing the audio tape from Menard’s radio it could be construed that Menard was allegedly encouraged to spin-out and bring out the caution. Just before the spin-out Menard’s team switched to a back-up radio channel that had no recording. Gordon wanted to know what was said on Menard’s Channel 2, but there was no statement forthcoming. As a result of the caution, Harvick beat out Gordon on the restart and earned three bonus points for the win. NASCAR is investigating the alleged incident.

Going into the Chase, Harvick moved up five-spots to a tie with Busch with 2012 points. Meanwhile, Gordon moved up two spots and is in sole possession of third place with 2009 points. Right behind him is Matt Kenseth in fourth place and 2006 points. There is a log jam at fifth with Carl Edwards, Kurt Busch, Jimmie Johnson, and Ryan Newman with 2003 points. Rounding out the Chasers are four drivers tied for ninth place; Brad Keselowski, Tony Stewart, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., and Denny Hamlin with 2000 points.     

At the beginning of the season in my 2011 NASCAR Futures column I recommended a play on Kyle Busch at 10/1 to win the Sprint Cup. I am still strong on Busch, and with four wins on the season, why not? Busch goes into the Chase in first place just like he did in 2008, but unlike then this time I don’t think he blows the lead. The current older, wiser Busch is more mature and knows he needs patience over the next 10 races if he is to win the Sprint Cup. Coincidently, Busch last won at Chicagoland in 2008. I look for Busch to exhibit that patience on Sunday, which is why I am not backing him at the Geico 400.    

The question on everyone’s mind going into NASCAR’s 10-race playoff is will Jimmie Johnson win an unprecedented sixth consecutive Sprint Cup? If you want to talk about sports dynasties you shouldn’t overlook Johnson’s accomplishments in a sport that runs for 10 months a year. There is a lot more to the Sprint Cup circuit than just turning left. He’ll have to do it this season from three points behind, which is hardly insurmountable. Johnson has never won at Chicagoland, and a win in Joliet would get the Chase off on the right pedal. However, Johnson finished 31st last week and might not have fortune on his side this week.

In fact, I think the most consistent driver in Sprint Cup has been Jeff Gordon. Throwing out the Watkins Glen race when Gordon finished 13th, Gordon has finished in the Top 6 in every other race. He has dominated the last three races and won the AdvoCare 500 and perhaps should have won at Richmond. Gordon is my choice to finish first on Sunday.   

Pick! Jeff Gordon, No. 24, +800

Geico 400 Lucky Dog Long Odds
 
Harvick is the kind of driver you love to hate. The problem with emotions is they interfere with sound judgment regarding sports investment. There is no doubt that Harvick has the momentum from last week’s squeaker over Jeff Gordon. Harvick won the first two races at Chicagoland, but he has not done much since. Harvick finished the race last year at 34th, but does have five Top-5 and six Top-10 finishes in 10 races at Chicagoland. He’s looking for wins early in the Chase since that is what burned his chances last year.  

Pick! Kevin Harvick, No. 29, +1200

Geico 400 Top-Three Finish

Held winless throughout the 2011 NASCAR season, and with the promise of summer’s heat a vacant memory, Stewart is starting his quest for the Sprint Cup from nine points behind. Stewart has won at Chicagoland twice and has notched seven Top-5 and eight Top-10 finishes in 10 races. Stewart is working on a streak of four consecutive Top-10 finishes of which three are Top-5s. Stewart will be hungry for a win but will get held off by Jeff Gordon.
 
Pick! Tony Stewart, No. 14, +280

GEICO 400 – *Odds to finish Top-Three
Chicagoland Speedway – September 18, 2011 2:14 p.m.

Carl Edwards +140
Jimmie Johnson +140
Jeff Gordon +160
Kyle Busch +160
Kevin Harvick +240
Matt Kenseth +240
Brad Keselowski +280
Denny Hamlin +280
Kurt Busch +280
Tony Stewart +280
Greg Biffle +400
Clint Bowyer +440
Kasey Kahne +600
Dale Earnhardt Jr. +660
David Reutimann +660
Juan-Pablo Montoya +660
Ryan Newman +700
AJ Allmendinger +800
David Ragan +800
Jeff Burton +800
Joey Logano +800
Mark Martin +800
Martin Truex Jr +800
Brian Vickers +1000
Jamie McMurray +1000
Paul Menard +1100
Marcos Ambrose +1320

GEICO 400 – *Odds to win
Chicagoland Speedway – September 18, 2011 2:14 p.m.

Carl Edwards +700
Jimmie Johnson +700
Jeff Gordon +800
Kyle Busch+800
Kevin Harvick+1200
Matt Kenseth +1200
Brad Keselowski +1400
Denny Hamlin +1400
Kurt Busch +1400
Tony Stewart +1400
Greg Biffle +2000
Clint Bowyer +2200
Kasey Kahne +3000
Dale Earnhardt Jr. +3300
David Reutimann +3300
Juan-Pablo Montoya +3300
Ryan Newman +3500
AJ Allmendinger +4000
David Ragan +4000
Jeff Burton +4000
Joey Logano +4000
Mark Martin +4000
Martin Truex Jr +4000
Brian Vickers +5000
Jamie McMurray +5000
Paul Menard +5500
Marcos Ambrose +6600

*Odds courtesy of Intertops.com