Where there’s ‘Smoke’ there is fire. And no Chase driver is hotter than Tony Stewart, who won last weekend’s race for his third win in seven Chase races. He has now moved within eight points of first place with three races remaining as NASCAR heads down to Texas Motor Speedway on Sunday, Nov. 6 for the AAA 500.

If you are interested in betting on the AAA 500 you should know how dominant Richard Childress Racing was in the spring race. The RCR stable finished first, third, fourth and seventh in the spring race and Matt Kenseth will be itching to make good after his Sprint Cup hopes took a hit after Martinsville.

Keep in mind that Carl Edwards leads all active drivers with three wins here, followed by Denny Hamlin and Jeff Burton with two wins apiece. While 15 of 21 races have been won from the starting Top-10 positions on the grid, the pole-sitter has won this race only once (Kasey Kahne, 2006).

Denny Hamlin is this race’s defending champion. Finally, approximately 52 laps will be the pit-window, and due to relatively few cautions at TMS there is a distinct possibility that this race will be won on fuel mileage.

Who will win the AAA 500? 

Its crunch time; Carl Edwards lost six points off his lead and has a new problem to worry about, Stewart is looming large in his rearview mirror and only three races are left in the Chase: Texas, Phoenix, and Florida. Realistically, there are three drivers -- Edwards, Stewart, and Kevin Harvick -- who are within striking distance of the Sprint Cup. Even Harvick, at 21,points behind Edwards, might find it hard to keep pace with Edwards and Stewart at Texas.

Edwards has three wins at TMS and swept both races in 2008. Edwards has four Top-5 finishes and five Top-10 finishes in 13 starts. In the spring race Edwards finished third, but he finished 19th in this race last year.

Meanwhile, Stewart’s win last week propelled him two spots to second place.  Stewart has obviously peaked at the right time; he did not have a win in the regular season, but since the Chase he has won 43 percent of the races that comprise the Chase. Stewart has only one win at Texas (2006) along with four Top-5 and 10 Top-10 finishes in 19 starts at TMS.

Stewart finished 11th last year and 12th in spring. However, the fact that this race could be won on fuel mileage plays to Stewarts’ crew’s strengths. He won two of three races in the Chase on fuel mileage already, so it is not unreasonable to assume that he can do it again.

However, while the other drivers might not exactly give the win to Stewart or Edwards on Sunday as witnessed last week, there is respect given to the Chase leaders by the other drivers. Consider what Jimmie Johnson did not do last week to win the race. Stewart passed JJ with three laps to go and when Johnson was given the opportunity on the corner to Bump-n-Run Stewart and then take the lead, he opted out of this tactic and settled for second place, despite the fact that to win his sixth title Johnson would need to win the remaining Chase races.

Speaking of Johnson, the quest for six ends this year, and as a result NASCAR has enjoyed the best ratings in years for the last two Chase races. I guess you can attribute that to the fact that someone other than Johnson will win the Sprint Cup this year.

Harvick moved up two spots in the standings to third after Martinsville. However, now more than ever he needs his first win at Texas this Sunday. Harvick has three Top-5 finishes and eight Top-10s in 17 starts at TMS. The good news for Harvick is that he has three Top-10 finishes in his last four TMS starts. Harvick was sixth last year, but might find his first victory elusive due to the dominance of RCR and Matt Kenseth.

Kenseth is looking for the season sweep at TMS. Kenseth had the Sprint Cup in his sights until Martinsville and his 31st-place finish. This cost Kenseth three spots and perhaps the 2011 Sprint Cup. But the news is not all bleak for Kenseth if he can win out or come up with a win and two Top-5 finishes.  

Kenseth was absolutely dominant in Texas’ spring race, leading 169 of 344 laps, and Kenseth’s 1.5-mile package has been nothing short of impressive as Kenseth has been the leader in all three other Chase races. Besides, he’ll have all kinds of help from his three other teammates who all did well in the spring race.

Pick! Matt Kenseth, No. 17, (+750)

AAA 500 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special

It is hard to imagine a driver other than a Chase racer winning on Sunday, so I am looking at the 12 to see who has the best chance of delivering a win at the longest price.

Kurt Busch has got to be disappointed with the way his Chase has gone this year. Busch is in eighth place, the same as last week; 58 points out of first place. Kurt Busch won this race in 2009 riding the ‘Blue Deuce’ for his lone Texas win.

He has three Top-5 and 11 Top-10 finishes in 17 starts at TMS. In his last five starts at Texas Kurt has four Top-10s in the last five starts, and with nothing to lose I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go for the win. Talladega’s wreck cost Busch a chance at the Sprint Cup, but he won’t let that stop him from preventing his nemesis, Harvick, from winning the Cup as well. Busch can do that with a win on Sunday.

Pick! Kurt Busch, No.22 (+2200)

AAA 500 – Odds* to Win
Texas Motor Speedway, November 6, 2011

Jimmie Johnson +750
Carl Edwards +750
Kyle Busch +900
Denny Hamlin +1300
Jeff Gordon +1000
Kevin Harvick +1100
Tony Stewart +875
Matt Kenseth +750
Kurt Busch +2200
Dale Earnhardt Jr +2700
Clint Bowyer +1600
Ryan Newman +3300 
Brad Keselowski +2200 
Mark Martin +4500
Jeff Burton +5500
Greg Biffle +1600
Joey Logano +5500
Juan Pablo Montoya +4500
Jamie McMurray +2500
Kasey Kahne +2200
David Reutimann +5500
Martin Truex Jr +5500
Brian Vickers +2500
David Ragan +3800
AJ Allmendinger +2500
Field +2500

*Odds courtesy of 5Dimes