College Football Power Rankings: the Ferringo 15
by Robert Ferringo - 10/19/2011
The Ferringo 15 College Football Power Rankings is my own unique twist on the obsessive ranking systems that have dominated the sport for nearly a century. The Ferringo 15 is my Profit-Power Rankings; a rating of the 15 teams that I think hold the most value in college football betting at the moment and it is a reflection of past, present, and projected future achievement against the spread in college football betting.
So just because my No. 1 ranked team goes out an blows out an opponent, that doesn’t strengthen their hold on the top slot. If anything, blowouts hurt value because the general betting public will then start to overestimate a team’s ability. However, teams that quietly go about their business grinding out wins and covering spreads will see their stock – and their spot in the Ferringo 15 as well as steadily rise as the season progresses.
The Ferringo 15 has been exceptional over the past four years at pinpointing undervalued teams according to their college football odds. If you were to have bet every team in the Ferringo 15 the week that they appear in my college football power rankings then you would have hit over 58 percent of your wagers for a four-year period.
So far this year I suppose the Ferringo 15 could just be the AP Top 15, as the top-tier teams in college football continue to overwhelm undermanned opponents. The last two weeks alone the teams in the Top 10 have gone an astounding 14-2-1 ATS in lined games. Despite all of the heavy public action on these teams the books simply can’t make the lines high enough. We will see if there will be an overcorrection at some point but until that happens either get on board with the chalk or get out of the way.
Here is my Week 8 Ferringo 15 College Football Power Rankings. (As always, all records are ATS against the closing line):
1. Wisconsin (5-0-1) –The wave has already started to go the other way against the Badgers. They are facing inflated odds this week against Michigan State and a lot of sharks are circling that game. There is a heavy reverse line movement on this game and the number has taken a big dip. But Wisconsin is still 8-0 ATS against the Big Ten and they are 15-5-1 ATS over their last 21 games. However, they are just 3-7 ATS as a conference road favorite of over a touchdown. I may not be playing on Russ Wilson and the Badgers this weekend, but I sure as hell am not going to be betting against them.
2. Clemson (6-1) – The Tigers pulled out an amazing comeback last week and they continue to live a charmed life. After years of being a money burner it’s as if all of the karma has come back to this team at once. They are facing a physical, but disorganized, North Carolina team this week and the favorite has owned the series (7-3 ATS). The Tigers have to avoid looking ahead to a key showdown with Georgia Tech next week and concentrate on the task at hand this week. That’s a tall order.
3. Stanford (6-0) –I keep waiting for the bubble to finally burst on this team but it looks like it won’t happen until Mr. Luck (that’s Andrew, not Lady’s husband) leaves campus. The Cardinal is on an amazing 11-0-1 ATS rush dating back to last year and just continues to thrash people with cool precision. Stanford is 14-3-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite, 20-6-1 ATS as a favorite, and 21-8-1 ATS over the last three years.
4. Temple(6-1) –Have defense, will manhandle; that has been the motto of the Owls this year as they continue their Redemption March through the MAC. But at a certain point you have to start to wonder if quarterback Chester Stewart is going to be good enough to go out and win this team a game. Temple is a road favorite this week against Bowling Green and the host has dominated this series, winning seven of the last eight outright. But Temple is 20-8 ATS on the road and on a 35-17-1 ATS overall rip over the last four-plus years, so who am I to doubt them?
5. Kansas State (5-1) –That is now four straight outright wins for the underdog Wildcats and they have to be considered the biggest surprise in college football. This week they will take on in-state rival Kansas, who they demolished, 59-7, last year. Apparently the sharps and the public still aren’t believers in this team, which is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 meetings with the Jayhawks, because the line has dropped three full points (or more) toward KU.
6. Rutgers (5-1) –These Jersey boys will just keep fighting and right now they are in the driver’s seat in the Big East. This week they are road dogs to a Louisville team that is just 6-14 ATS in its last 20 conference games. But Rutgers has to avoid looking ahead to their next two games: hosting West Virginia and South Florida. The road team has won the last two meetings – with Louisville humiliating Rutgers, 40-13, last year – and the favorite has dominated, going 5-1 ATS in the last six matchups.
7. Oklahoma State (5-1) – The Cowboys just continue to devastate despite not getting a quarter of the fanfare of their in-state rivals, Oklahoma. But Oklahoma State is on a sensational 14-3 ATS rush and this week they are laying less than a touchdown to Missouri. Mizzou will be an active dog. But the Cowboys have won the last two meetings, including their last trip to Faurot Field. Oklahoma State is 23-6-1 ATS as a road favorite and 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 road games.
8. Alabama (6-1) – There really isn’t much to say about the Crimson Tide that hasn’t already been said. As long as Nick Saban is at the controls this team is going to be a great wager week-in and week-out, regardless of the spread. I shudder when I think about what the Alabama defense is going to do to completely overmatched Matt Simms this week. Don’t think for a second that Saban doesn’t know that LSU beat Tennessee by 31 last week and I’m sure he is using that as the target number for what ‘Bama should do to the Vols this week.
9. Georgia Tech (4-2-1) –After a scorching start the Jackets have floundered to 0-2-1 ATS in their last three games. Normally that would roll them right out of the F-15. But people are always way too eager to write-off option teams and Tech has been instilled as an underdog to shaky Miami this week. That tells me there is still some value here, even though the Jackets earned their fast open and high ranking thanks to a cupcake schedule. But Paul Johnson is always a great underdog and Tech is 16-7-1 ATS as a road puppy.
10. Washington (5-1) –Right now Stanford is getting all of the love from bettors – and deservedly so – but the Huskies are starting to build up a solid little ATS resume of their own. Washington is 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games and they have covered five straight. But the Huskies were shut out at home, 41-0, in their loss to the Cardinal last season and have lost three straight to Stanford by an average of 23 points per. UW’s recent hot streak may have cost them three or four points on the line this week.
11. Marshall (5-2) – The Thundering Herd are the type of team that I love to find early in the year; they have a losing outright record and are middle-of-the-pack in their conference but they are a cash cow at the window and constantly underrated. They are running into a buzz saw, Houston, this week, but they are catching nearly 24 points on the road. Marshall lost by less than that at West Virginia, against Virginia Tech and at Central Florida, so the Cougars won’t intimidate this team.
12. Michigan (5-2) –We will see if the deck cools with the Wolverines after their first outright loss of the season. But I think that this team will still have some value because of their second-half schedule. Michigan has two weeks before hosting Purdue and then plays at Iowa, at Illinois, hosts Nebraska and closes out against Ohio State. They should be underdogs in at least three of those games and right now they may all be winnable.
13. San Jose State (5-2) –Like Marshall, San Jose has a losing record in the standings, but it has been a solid winner at the window. They have a bye before a tricky trip to Louisiana Tech next week. But I would say the toughest part of the schedule is behind the Spartans. And with three of the next five on the road, and an odd November nonconference game with Navy, I expect this team to be catching points in perhaps four more games this year so there is some value here.
14. Arkansas State (6-1) –The Red Wolves did it again this week, blowing up in the fourth quarter to beat highly-touted Florida International Tuesday night. That 21-point outburst kept the Wolves in the race for the Sun Belt title and they now have extra prep time for their next game (against North Texas). I can’t move this team up too much though, because generally a big win by a small conference favorite on national television usually sucks value from a team more than it builds value. ASU is on bettors’ radars now and the books will respond accordingly.
15. Oklahoma (4-2) –I will sneak the Sooners in on the back of this list simply because of what has been the clear trend in college football this year: the domination of the Top 10 teams compared to the rest of the field. The Sooners have won their last three games by 56, 38 and 30 points. And since the teams they are competing with, nationally, for the BCS Title continue to show no quarter against their opponents I don’t expect OU to let up at all this week against Texas Tech. They have beaten the Red Raiders three straight years by an average of 36.7 points per meeting.
Robert Ferringo is a writer and a professional sports handicapper for Doc’s Sports. He has banked $1,400 in football profit last since late September and is lining up another big college football weekend. He nailed his 6-Unit Game of the Month last week and will have a 5-Unit Play on the card this week. You can sign up for his college football and NFL picks and get more information here.
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