College Football Power Rankings: the Ferringo 15
by Robert Ferringo - 11/23/2011
The Ferringo 15 college football power rankings is my own twist on the obsessive ranking systems that pervade this sport. The Ferringo 15 is my profit-power rankings; a rating of the 15 teams that hold the most value in college football betting at the moment. It is a reflection of past, present, and projected future achievement against the spread in college football betting.
The Ferringo 15 has excelled over the past four years at pinpointing undervalued teams according to their college football odds. If you were to have bet every team in the Ferringo 15 the week that they appear in my college football power rankings then you would have hit over 58 percent of your wagers for a four-year period.
Here is my Week 12 Ferringo 15 college football power rankings and it will be abbreviated since I’m sure you have a mother-in-law to get berated by or a grabby uncle to keep your wife away from. (As always, all records are ATS against the closing line):
1. Kansas State (8-2) – They get a week off from being underrated before a season finale at home against Iowa State. They will probably be 13-point underdogs and win by 20 like they have all season. This team has been a moneyline dream.
2. LSU (8-3) – I can’t say that there is a ton of value on this team since it is laying double-digits to a fellow Top 10 team. But as I have pointed out before, over the last eight years the team that went on to win the National Championship has covered at least nine spreads seven times.
3. Louisiana Tech (8-2) – Relative to its talent, this team has played the toughest schedule in the country. They have played on the road in six of their last seven weeks but still are leading the WAC. That is impressive. I am curious to see how they adjust to the role of large chalk (they are -19.5 this week) when they have been an underdog in three of five weeks.
4. Stanford (9-2) –Look who is back in the BCS Championship picture! The Cardinal has pounded Notre Dame the last two years and gets them at home this week. I have to think having new life in the title chase is going to energize this group in a big way.
5. Oklahoma State (7-3) –If this defense isn’t forcing turnovers it is actually shockingly bad. Next week’s Bedlam game is a de facto Big 12 Championship Game with the winner going to a BCS bowl. Should be one of the best games of the year. (Think: anti-LSU vs. Alabama.)
6. Arkansas State (9-2) – The Red Wolves have an extra week to prepare for a season finale against Troy. ASU has already locked up the Sun Belt Championship, but I still think they will want to lay the wood to a Trojans team that has dominated this league the past several years. ASU’s last loss came back in mid-September by just 19 points in Blacksburg. This is a very talented team.
7. Alabama (7-3) – It is never easy to just go out and piss-pound a hated in-state rival, but that is what the Crimson Tide is being asked to do – on the road – this week. No way am I rolling with the Tide in this one, but I wouldn’t put my money on Auburn either. Regardless, only twice in the last decade has this game been decided by more than 10 points.
8. Western Kentucky (9-2) – The Hilltoppers have never beaten Troy but they have always played them tough, even when Troy was wrecking the Sun Belt and WKU was just struggling to find its feet in D-I. Western Kentucky is 19-7-1 ATS in its last 27 games overall and 16-5 ATS in its last 21 conference games.
9. Michigan (8-3) – The Wolverines haven’t beaten Ohio State since 2003. You would think that this would be a great opportunity to take out some frustration. I will also admit that I have been waiting for a month for this team to collapse, but they have gotten stronger as the season has progressed.
10. Houston (8-2) – Personally, I am not impressed by this team. Their win over SMU was nice and they have gone on a 6-0 ATS rush. But their wins have come against dregs like Tulane, UAB, Rice, Georgia State and North Texas. Their only win over a bowl team came back in Week 2 against Louisiana Tech.
11. Rutgers (8-2-1) –Right place at the right time. That is the best way that I can describe the Scarlet Knight this year. They are clinging to first place in a disgustingly bad Big East, yet they are only three-point favorites this week against a horrid Connecticut team that is just 4-6 on the year and still doesn’t have a quarterback. That tells me everything I need to know about how good this Rutgers team is.
12. Wisconsin (7-3-1) – The Badgers have slowly but steadily declined in the F-15 because the public is still all over them. But they are still by far the best team in the Big Ten and they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games in Madison. They are on a 1-4 ATS slide overall, but if they can get up a couple scores early on Penn State the Lions don’t have the offense to keep this one competitive.
13. Southern Miss (7-3) –The Golden Eagles are five-touchdown favorites against Memphis this week so it is tough to make the argument that this team has a ton of value. This team is just 4-12 ATS in its last 16 home games as a double-digit favorite and I have to wonder how they respond after that stunning loss to UAB. The favorite is 11-5 ATS in the USM-Memphis series though.
14. Clemson (7-3) –How does Clemson play this? Do they go all out to beat their hated in-state rival, South Carolina, this week? Or do they hold some in the tank for the ACC title game and a shot at a BCS bowl next week? Clemson is on a 0-3 ATS slide and they are sinking fast.
15. Vanderbilt(7-3) –For as well as this team has played and for as hard as they have competed in the SEC, the Commodores need a win this week at Wake Forest (not an easy task this year) in order to be bowl eligible. That is a lot of motivation.
Robert Ferringo is a writer and a professional sports handicapper for Doc’s Sports. He has banked $1,000 in football profit last since late September and is lining up another big college football weekend. He nailed hisNFL Game of the Month last week and will have a pair of big plays again this weekend. You can sign up for his college football and NFL picks and get more information here.
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