College Football Power Rankings: the Ferringo 15
by Robert Ferringo - 11/2/2011
The Ferringo 15 College Football Power Rankings is my own unique twist on the obsessive ranking systems that have dominated the sport for nearly a century. The Ferringo 15 is my Profit-Power Rankings; a rating of the 15 teams that I think hold the most value in college football betting at the moment and it is a reflection of past, present, and projected future achievement against the spread in college football betting.
So just because my No. 1 ranked team goes out an blows out an opponent that doesn’t strengthen their hold on the top slot. If anything, blowouts hurt value because the general betting public will then start to overestimate a team’s ability. However, teams that quietly go about their business grinding out wins and covering spreads will see their stock – and their spot in the Ferringo 15 -- steadily rise as the season progresses.
The Ferringo 15 has been exceptional over the past four years at pinpointing undervalued teams according to their college football odds. If you were to have bet every team in the Ferringo 15 the week that they appear in my college football power rankings then you would have hit over 58 percent of your wagers for a four-year period.
Here is my Week 10 Ferringo 15 College Football Power Rankings. (As always, all records are ATS against the closing line):
1. Stanford (8-0) – If you had USC last week I have two things to say to you. First, that was an all-time bad beat. It is never fun to lose a game in college OT, but that one had to be heartbreaking. Second, why the hell are you betting against Stanford?!?!?! That is now a tasty 20-6-1 ATS mark in their last 27 games and a 13-0-1 ATS rush dating back to last year. They will need to avoid the letdown (from USC) and look ahead (to Oregon) spots this weekend. But as good of a spot as this is for Oregon State, how do you bet against the Cardinal this week? Or as long as Andrew Luck is under center?
2. Clemson (7-2) – I am not going to cream Clemson for losing to Georgia Tech last week. Paul Johnson’s teams are always exceptional underdogs and the Tigers were in a tough road environment. I feel like this bye week comes as a very good time. Clemson can re-center and gear up for the home finale against a Wake Forest team that will be coming off a game with Notre Dame. The Tigers finish at N.C. State and at South Carolina, and I can see them sweeping both games and finishing the regular season on a nice 2-1 ATS run.
3. Oklahoma State (7-1) –Finally. The Cowboys are finally getting respect this week, as they are posted as a three-touchdown favorite over Kansas State. It seems as if they have been drafting in Oklahoma’s wake all season, but they have played three common opponents and OSU has outscored those teams (Kansas, Texas, Missouri) by 153-78 while Oklahoma (which got Mizzou at home) beat the trio by the count of 140-62. The Cowboys won in Manhattan by just 10 points last year and the last four meetings have been decided by an average of just five points per game.
4. Alabama (7-1) –Apparently the National Championship is now being played in early November. Or so it seems. I have to think that there is actually more pressure on Alabama this week. The No. 1 team in the land is just 8-12 ATS in the last 20 meetings between No. 1 and No. 2, although the top team has covered three of four. LSU won this meeting last year and the road team has won six of 10 meetings in this series (6-3-1 ATS). But you are taking your life into your own hands going against Nick Saban right now, even if Les Miles is arguably the better “big game” coach.
5. LSU (6-2) – Hey, did you hear that LSU plays in a big game this weekend? I don’t remember against whom, but it is kind of a big deal. In a stat ripped straight off from Colin Cowherd (who ripped it off to someone else): LSU is 20-1 straight up in its last 21 night games on the road or on a neutral field. I know that I won’t be jumping into this one; I will simply sit back and enjoy.
6. Michigan (6-2) – I was definitely impressed with Michigan’s thrashing of Purdue last week. That was a game that they could have come out flat in. Instead they did whatever they wanted offensively and dominated that game. It will be tougher sledding this weekend against a more physical Iowa team. But Michigan has revenge for a loss at The Big House last year in which Denard Robinson was knocked out of the game and UM’s comeback came up short. I still don’t like Robinson throwing the ball (all he does is float the ball up for grabs downfield), but what is impressing me about Michigan is how well their defense is coming together.
7. Louisiana Tech (6-2) – Tech has won and covered three straight games, yet they are still being dogged because players just can’t accept the fact that this program may be on an upswing. Despite a schedule that has included Mississippi State and Houston, the Bulldogs have only been outgained by about 40 total yards on the year and they have actually outscored their opponents. The underdog is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings with Fresno, including Fresno State’s win at Tech last year. That gives the Bulldogs revenge and Tech has been an excellent 11-5 ATS in its last 16 WAC games.
8. Arkansas State (7-1) – On the one hand, the Red Wolves should get extra credit for being the only Sun Belt favorite that can actually go out and beat lines. Sun Belt dogs facing teams other than Arkansas State went 10-3 ATS in October. On the other hand, I don’t know how much value is left betting this team. They are laying 17 points again this week – on the road – and are in a perfect look ahead spot with a critical game with Lafayette on deck. But the Wolves are 8-3 ATS in conference games and have one of the top QBs in the league, so we will see.
9. Washington (6-2) – People forget that Oregon-Washington is one of the best traditional rivalries in the Pac-12. The Ducks have won seven straight while UW has rebuilt, but this game has to be Washington’s “Super Bowl” this season. Oregon will have to avoid looking ahead to its clash with Stanford next week as well. The home team is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings, but UW is a pathetic 2-7-1 ATS over the last decade against its rivals.
10. Kansas State (6-2) – Well, that snapped the Wildcats back down to earth. State put up a decent fight early against Oklahoma before getting pummeled. We will see if this team can pick itself up off the mat because things don’t get any easier this week in Stillwater. That has been a problem for this program, which is 3-7 ATS after a double-digit loss at home. They still have Texas A&M and a trip to Austin on deck, so this could end up being a very l-o-n-g month for the Wildcats. But they are 8-3 ATS on the road, 6-1 ATS as a road dog, and 4-0 ATS as a double-digit underdog.
11. Wisconsin (5-2-1) – From juggernaut to just-another-Big-Ten-failure in just two weeks. This is a very difficult team to handicap right now. I still think that they may be the best team in the conference. But two heartbreaking losses, both coming in the last 25 seconds of the game, can zap any team’s strength. The Badgers are still going to be laying big numbers and they still have the talent to beat those numbers. But do they have the motivation? Wisconsin is 5-0 ATS and 7-1-1 ATS against Purdue lately and the Badgers are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home games.
12. Temple(6-2) –The Owls get their shot in primetime tonight when they take on Ohio in what is really a key MAC game. Temple has bumbled away chances for conference titles in the past and it will be interesting to see how they respond on national TV tonight. Temple is catching two-thirds of the action in this game despite being the road favorite to a team that beat them at TU last year.
13. Rutgers (5-2-1) –As much as the knee-jerk reaction is to bounce Rutgers from the F-15 after their loss last week, I think there is still some water in this well. The Scarlet Knights are home dogs again this week and will likely be catching points in their final two conference games (vs. Cincy and at Connecticut). They are just 2-6 ATS as a home underdog but they have also won four of five in Jersey this year. Rutgers has covered four straight against South Florida and the dog is 5-1 ATS in the last six in this series. The Knights could’ve used a snow storm this weekend against the Florida team, but unfortunately it looks to be sunny and in the 50s.
14. UTEP (6-2) –The Miners almost pulled out another cover last week against Southern Miss, but the defense failed in the fourth quarter. That snapped a six-game covering streak, and now the Miners are on the road against a Rice team that UTEP is just 1-7 ATS against over the last eight years.
15. Cincinnati (5-2) –The Bearcats are in a very tricky spot this week against a dangerous Pittsburgh team. The Panthers are always a nice dog and have won four of six in this series, including a 28-10 blowout at UC last year. The Bearcats are just 3-7 ATS on the road and they would be going for back-to-back road wins. But this team also has had two weeks to prepare and Pittsburgh has only beaten one team (South Florida) that really resembles a D-I football team.
Others Receiving Votes: Houston (6-2), Western Kentucky (6-2), Vanderbilt (6-2), Southern Miss (6-2)
Robert Ferringo is a writer and a professional sports handicapper for Doc’s Sports. He has banked $3,000 in football profit last since late September and is lining up another big college football weekend. He nailed hisNFL Game of the Month last week and will have a trio of 5-Unit Plays on the card this week. You can sign up for his college football and NFL picks and get more information here.
Most Recent College Football Power Rankings
- College Football Power Rankings: Ferringo 15
- College Football Power Rankings: Ferringo 15
- College Football Power Rankings: Ferringo 15
- College Football Power Rankings: Ferringo 15
- College Football Power Rankings: Ferringo 15
- College Football Power Rankings: Ferringo 15
- College Football Power Rankings: Ferringo 15
- College Football Power Rankings: Ferringo 15
- College Football Power Rankings: Ferringo 15
- College Football Power Rankings: Ferringo 15