College Football Power Rankings: the Ferringo 15
by Robert Ferringo - 9/22/2011
The Ferringo 15 College Football Power Rankings is my own unique twist on the obsessive ranking systems that have dominated the sport for nearly a century. The Ferringo 15 is my Profit-Power Rankings; a rating of the 15 teams that I think hold the most value in college football betting at the moment and it is a reflection of past, present, and projected future achievement against the spread in college football betting.
So just because my No. 1-ranked team goes out an blows out an opponent that doesn’t strengthen their hold on the top slot. If anything, blowouts hurt value because the general betting public will then start to overestimate a team’s ability. However, teams that quietly go about their business grinding out wins and covering spreads will see their stock, and their spot in the Ferringo 15 as well, steadily rise as the season progresses.
The Ferringo 15 has been exceptional over the course of the past four years at pinpointing undervalued teams according to their college football odds. If you were to have bet every team in the Ferringo 15 the week that they appear in my college football power rankings then you would have hit better than 58 percent of your wagers for a four-year period.
Here is my Week 3 Ferringo 15 College Football Rankings (all records are ATS against the closing line):
1. Georgia Tech (3-0) –Undervalue Bobby Johnson at your own risk. Johnson created a cash machine at Navy with his system and he is now doing it at Georgia Tech. The thing to remember about this year’s Jackets is that while they are relatively inexperienced, this crop is also full of Johnson’s own recruits. He picks players tailor-made to fit his system and right now he is reaping the rewards. Tech is No. 1 in the sport in total offense, rushing offense, and points scored (59.3). They may come back down to earth in ACC play. But until they do this should be a train to ride.
2. Florida International (3-0) –The value on this team may be sagging a bit as they dabble into conference play. But on the other hand, a lot of bettors are going to flat ignore the Sun Belt once the “real” conferences get kicking. One thing that worries me a bit about FIU is that they have been outgained in their last two wins – both straight-up, as an underdog – and we will see if this team stays motivated now that the “marquee” portion of the schedule is done. FIU is 1-6 ATS against UL-Lafayette and the home team is 1-4 ATS in this series.
3. Utah (2-1) –Thrashing the Cougars may not be great for their betting value, but it sure is good for morale. Utah dropped the hammer last week against BYU in the Holy War and now they get to avoid the letdown spot because of a bye week. The Utes have two weeks to prep for their Pac-12 home opener and they should continue their ascension through October.
4. Arkansas (2-1) – Apparently there is still plenty of value left on the Hogs, as they are double-digit underdogs against a freshman quarterback this week. Bobby Petrino has this team flowing and right now Tyler Wilson has looked sharp in his three starts. The Razorbacks are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games and three of their last five matchups with the Crimson Tide have been decided by four points or less.
5. Temple (3-0) –College football is about talent and motivation. And right now the Owls have both. Last week’s 14-10 loss to Penn State has to be heartbreaking, and it puts them in a brutally tough letdown spot this week against Maryland. But Temple has covered 10 of 13 road games and they are 6-2 ATS overall, dating back to last year.
6. Navy (3-0) – The Middies just continue to cash tickets. And looking at the upcoming Navy Midshipmen football schedule, this is going to be a club to keep an eye on in October because they should be underdogs in four of their five games despite having equal (or greater) talent than three of those teams. Navy has two weeks to prepare for a rivalry and a revenge spot next week against Air Force; another potentially sneaky-good ATS team this season.
7. Tennessee (1-1-1) –Tennessee was slapped around in The Swamp last week in its biggest game of the season to date. However, I think that may be a good thing for Volunteer backers. This team only has to head back out on the road one time in the next six weeks and they only have three away games the rest of the season. This team is gaining experience and confidence and I expect them to be ready after this week’s bye.
8. Toledo (2-1) – The Rockets were overwhelmed last week by Boise State. And this week they are catching a lot of action on the road against Syracuse. That means that they have to be considered a team falling fast in the Ferringo 15 as clubs are catching on here. Don’t be surprised, win or lose, if this team is off the list after this week.
9. Marshall (2-1) – The Thundering Herd were humiliated at Ohio last week, giving up nearly 600 yards and falling, 44-7, at Ohio (another value team on our radar). But Marshall was competitive as a huge road dog at West Virginia and they pulled an upset at home against a quality conference foe (Southern Miss). So after back-to-back emotional games they were caught in a letdown/look ahead spot last week. I expect to see a more competitive team this week, especially in the mountains of West Virginia against a Virginia Tech team that is still struggling to find its way on offense.
10. Wisconsin (2-0-1) – Just about every year, without fail, one of the teams that end up competing for the National Championship is also one of the most valuable (ATS-wise) teams in the nation. That seems counter-intuitive, since the public is most likely all over team. But in the end our club is just THAT good. This year I think Wisconsin falls into that category. They are simply bigger, stronger, and more disciplined than just about every team on their schedule. This will be a great year in Madison.
11. East Carolina (2-0) –The Pirates had a week off and are back to work this Saturday. This is my least-favorite team on the Ferringo 15, but I’m not going to ignore their opening season efforts against South Carolina and Virginia Tech. This week they take on a UAB team that was a disaster last week against hapless Tulane, and a Blazers club on an 0-7 ATS slide. I’m not sure how ECU will adjust to the favorite role, but I do know that they will be motivated to avoid falling to 0-3 SU on the season.
12. Florida (3-0) – This team is quietly going about its business and is one of the least talked-about clubs in the SEC right now despite their Top 15 ranking. That said, they are laying a healthy chunk on the road this week in Lexington. Florida is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 road games and it is 37-18-1 ATS in its last 56 games overall.
13. Bowling Green (2-1) –The Falcons took a home loss and failed to cover as a thick favorite last week, falling 28-27 to Wyoming. However, Bowling Green has outgained its opponents by 198, 379 and 118 yards through three weeks. Matt Schilz just continues to improve and is accuracy is impressive. The Falcons are 19-6-1 ATS on the road and they are always a feisty underdog. This team is one to watch in the MAC.
14. Boise State (2-0) –See: Wisconsin. Boise State is just a wrecking crew right now and they are obviously one of the best half-dozen teams in the nation. But they understand that they still have to prove it each week so blowouts – and covering inflated numbers – are their ethos. Boise State is 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games overall and 48-23-2 ATS on the Smurf Turf. Enough said.
15. Cincinnati (2-1) – The Bearcats are healthy favorites on a Thursday night primetime game. That is never good for anyone’s value. But we’ll find out what type of edge Cincy has here against a young NC State defense. The Bearcats are just 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games overall so I hesitated to even include them. But hanging 72, 23 and 59 points in three weeks is enough to raise some eyebrows.
Others Receiving Votes: Oklahoma (2-0), South Florida (3-0), Ohio (2-1), Vanderbilt (3-0), Arkansas State (3-0).
Robert Ferringo is a writer and a professional sports handicapper for Doc’s Sports. He has brought in $20,000 in overall profit in all sports over the last 16 months and is looking to continue his exceptional football success (20 of 28 winning football months). You can sign up for his college football and NFL picks and get more information here.
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