College Basketball Picks: Syracuse at NC State Odds and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 12/16/2011
That’s 4-for-4 folks! I have previewed four college basketball games so far this season and have hit on the side in all four – the last was UConn’s 67-53 victory over Harvard on Dec. 8. I also hit on the total, so it’s been a very productive start to the season.
Let’s keep it going with Saturday’s matchup in Raleigh, N.C., between top-ranked Syracuse and NC State, future ACC rivals. (As an aside, no college basketball preview next week as it’s a pretty dead week with the holidays before conference play gets going).
Thanks to road losses by Kentucky and Ohio State last weekend, the Orange jumped to No. 1 in both polls for the first time since the final week of the 2009-10 regular season – SU’s stay only lasted two games that time thanks to a loss at Louisville.
Scoop Jardine, Kris Joseph and Brandon Triche are the only players on the current roster who were contributors on the 2009-10 team.
Syracuse at NC State Betting Storylines
The Orange might have the deepest team in the nation, and that was on display in their last game, an 85-50 blowout over George Washington last Saturday as SU improved to 10-0 for the third straight season. Dion Waiters came off the SU bench to pace the Orange with a career-high 19 points, six steals, four rebounds and four assists.
The Orange had 10 players log at least 13 minutes in that one. Waiters and Jardine, two of the team’s top players, each only log about 20 minutes a game on average.
N.C. State (6-3) is still looking for its first big win under first-year coach Mark Gottfried. The Wolfpack did beat a solid Texas club at a neutral site but lost by seven to Vanderbilt, 10 to Indiana and by four at Stanford.
The Wolfpack have lost six in a row to ranked teams dating to February 2010.
NC State enters off a 65-60 win over North Carolina Central last Sunday. Leading scorer C.J. Leslie, hamstrung by foul trouble, finished with three points and was held to single-figure scoring for the first time this season. That can’t happen in this one or N.C. State has no chance.
There is one common opponent between these two: Stanford. The Orange beat the Cardinal, 69-63, in the championship game of the NIT Season Tip-Off at Madison Square Garden. NCSU fell, 76-72, but that was in Stanford’s gym.
Syracuse and N.C. State did face off last year at the Carrier Dome, with the No. 7 Orange winning, 65-59. The Wolfpack lead by six midway through the second half but went the final 7:20 without a basket. Jardine led the Orange with 23 points. Leslie had 13 points and 11 boards for N.C. State.
This will be just the second time in school history that the Wolfpack will play host to a nonconference game against a No. 1 team, the other being a 53-52 loss to Notre Dame.
It’s the first time since 1996 that a No. 1 team from outside the ACC will face N.C. State at any location. N.C. State is 5-26 all-time against No. 1 teams, including a 3-8 mark at home.
Since moving to the RBC Center for the 1999-2000 season, the Wolfpack are 14-25 in games against all ranked opponents there. Against ranked nonconference opposition, State has a 1-2 mark, with the win coming way back in 2005.
Syracuse at NC State Betting Odds and Trends
The Orange opened as 7.5-point favorites with the total 144 on NCAA basketball odds. Syracuse is 6-3 ATS this season (no road games), while NCSU is 3-4 ATS overall and 1-3 ATS at home.
‘Over/under’ records: SU 3-5-1, NCSU 5-2. The Orange are 4-0 ATS in past four Saturday games. NCSU is 0-4 ATS in past four following a win. The ‘under’ is 4-1 in SU’s past five vs. ACC. The ‘over’ is 6-1-1 in NCSU’s past eight following a win.
College Basketball Picks: Syracuse at NC State Betting Predictions
The key for an N.C. State upset likely will be three-point specialist Scott Wood, the team’s second-leading scorer who is shooting a stellar 56.8 percent from downtown. In last year’s game with Syracuse, Wood made six three-pointers but missed three times from beyond the arc in the final two minutes as N.C. State blew the lead.
I do think the Wolfpack, who shoot a very good 46.7 percent from the floor collectively, can pull the upset considering this is Syracuse’s first true road game – in fact, it’s the first time that SU will have left the state (two games at MSG).
Plus, having a week to prepare for that unique Syracuse zone is a plus.
I’m not going to predict a Wolfpack win, although I am tempted to, but they will cover. And take the ‘under’.
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