Two evenly matched teams take the field this Sunday when the Miami Dolphins (3-3 and 4-2 ATS) and the Cincinnati Bengals (2-4 and 2-4 ATS) do battle at 1 p.m. EST in Cincinnati. The Bengals are one-point favorites over the Dolphins with a total of 43.5.

The Miami Dolphins come into this game ranked 18th in the NFL on offense, averaging 5.2 yards per play. The Dolphins offense has taken a nice step forward this season from their No. 22-ranked offense a year ago that averaged just 5.0 yards per play. The offensive improvement from Miami comes mainly from the improved play of third-year quarterback Chad Henne, who has put up a QB rating of 84.9. This is a solid nine points higher than last season.

The Dolphins have been road warriors of late, having covered five straight road games dating back to last season and nine of their last 10 games in which they have been an underdog. They face a Bengals team who struggles in the role of the favorite as Cincinnati is just 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games laying points. In fact, the Bengals have been one of the NFL’s most overrated teams in the past year, going just 3-11 ATS and they are just 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.

On offense the Bengals have the NFL’s 13th-ranked offense at 5.5 yards per play. This is a solid .6-yard per play improvement from the 4.9 yards per play average of the 2009 Cincinnati offense.

The main reason behind the 2-4 start from the Bengals has been the poor play of their defense, which ended the season ranked fourth in the NFL last year. They have slipped all the way back to 18th so far this year. The Bengals defense went from allowing just a little more than 18 points per game last year to allowing 23.5 points per contest this year. After a solid start defensively to the season the Bengals have allowed 28.6 points per game in their last three contests.

The Miami defense still remains a work in progress. The Dolphins were 28th in the NFL last year, allowing 5.8 yards per play, and last in the NFL in yards per pass attempt allowed. This year they have shown some improvement as they are 18th overall in the NFL defensively allowing 5.3 yards per play and 27th overall in yards per pass attempt allowed.

These two improving offenses should have no problem putting up points in this game as Miami has now gone ‘over’ in three of their last four games with both teams combining to average more than 49 points per game. The Bengals have played in three straight ‘overs’ and in those games both teams have combined to average 53 points per game.

Miami loves being in the underdog role so let’s call it a Dolphins win in a 28-27 shootout for my Week 8 NFL picks.

Jason Sharpe has been excellent for his expert football picks at Doc’s Sports, and he has shown a profit in eight of nine weeks for his NFL handicapping and college football picks. He sees some weak NFL point spreads on the board this week and is very excited to extend his 27-11 current NFL run – his card is highlighted by a 7-Unit NFC Game of the Year and he is 4-0 this season for picks rated 6-Units or higher. Call us toll-free at 1-866-238-6696 to find out about a free one-week football package from Sharpe or any Advisory Board handicapper of your choice (new clients only).