NFL Picks: Giants vs. Eagles Betting Odds and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 11/21/2010
Last time we saw him, Michael Vick was as good as a quarterback can possibly be. Superhuman. That’s not even an exaggeration. Now we get to see if there was just something in the air in Washington that night, if the Eagles were just fired up to face their former QB, or if Vick really has discovered some profound new level to operate on.
The good news is that Vick and the Eagles return home to play in front of what will be an even more adoring crowd than usual. The bad news is that they have to play against a team that is infinitely more competent on both sides of the ball than the Redskins are.
The Eagles were so successful last week in large part because of their play, but they were helped out by the chaos the Redskins brought to the game. The old Michael Vick would have struggled to stand up under the pressure of this game. Clearly, though, this is not the old Michael Vick.
While the Eagles are coming into this one riding high, the Giants have to get their act together after a surprising and frustrating performance against the Cowboys last week. Dallas was riding high thanks to a much needed coaching change, and that can explain part of what happened - but only part.
What stood out most in the game was that the Giants - a team that has been taking care of business this year - was vulnerable to big plays caused by mistakes. The Cowboys scored on a 101 yard interception return, and passes of 71 and 24 yards. The interception was the result of a mental lapse that was surprising even for Eli Manning.
The defense came into the game ranked at the top of the league, but they allowed 427 yards to an offense led by the ancient Jon Kitna. Offensively, they turned the ball over three times. It was, in all regards, not a good performance. Now, with first place on the line in the NFC East - perhaps for good - they will have to put that game behind them and play like we have seen they are capable of this year.
Giants vs. Eagles Betting Odds and Line Movement
The line is quite stable. It opened with the Eagles favored by three points - the standard spread for the home team, according to NFL odds. It’s still widely available there, though it has started to move to 3.5 in some places. The action is very heavily tilted towards the Eagles - they have drawn almost 85 percent of bets - so the line movement isn’t surprising in it’s direction. It might be a bit surprising that it hasn’t moved more or faster, but it’s not a total surprise.
The total opened at 47.5 and is on a slow march upwards - it can be found at 49 as I write this. Given the outburst by Vick and the strength of the over recently - 11 of 14 games last week went over - this movement is no surprise.
Giants vs. Eagles Betting Trends
The Giants have bounced back well - they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit home loss. They re also road warriors - they are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 away form home, and 12-4 in their last 16 as road underdogs.
Philadelphia is 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven Sunday games following a Monday night game.
The Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last seven as home favorites, and 2-5 ATS in their last seven against their division.
The Giants have gone ‘over’ in their last four, and in their last eight against the division. Philly has gone ‘over’ in their last five.
Philadelphia has won and covered the last four times these teams have met. The last two meetings have gone ‘over’ the total, but five of the six before that went ‘under’.
Giants vs. Eagles NFL Picks and Sunday Predictions
I’m concerned by the injuries to the Giants right now. Missing Steve Smith at receiver had a clear effect last week, and their receiver depth has been decimated as well.
They also have depth issues on the offensive line. I’m also eternally concerned by Eli Manning. He’s just not an elite QB in my eyes - and his 13 interceptions this year add weight to my argument.
I am not convinced that Vick can continue to operate at the level that he has been playing at, but he can take a step down from where he has been and still be effective here. Part of the problems for the Giants last week was the enthusiasm of the Cowboys, but Dallas also uncovered ways to exploit the Giants defensively, and Philadelphia is more than capable of taking note and doing the same.
I’ll take the Eagles at -3.
The trends point solidly to the ‘over,’ and I can’t see really strong reasons to disagree. It’s not a strong feeling, but I lean to the ‘over’.
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