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Well, this is it. Selection Sunday is just two short days away and all of the weeks and months of speculation about the NCAA Tournament field will be put to rest. Sure, there will be plenty of bitching and second-guessing the NCAA Selection Committee. But – barring some totally irrational – the teams at the end of the at-large line really don’t have much to complain about this year. While I don’t agree with Jay Bilas that this is the “weakest at-large field in history” I do know that those teams really don’t have much to complain about because they all have significant holes in their resumes.

I am writing this Friday afternoon so there is still a lot of basketball to be played. But here are the key things I’m looking for:

1. Mississippi has a chance to punch its ticket with a win over Tennessee.
2. San Diego State will be tough to leave out of the field if they beat New Mexico tonight.
3. The only conferences left where bids can be stolen – barring a wild run in one of the major BCS conference tournaments – are the Atlantic 10, WAC and the Mountain West (if SDSU wins it). A lot of chalk held up in the smaller conference tournaments, with the exception of St. Mary’s winning the WCC.
4. Dayton is another team that if they beat Xavier they will be tough to leave out. And Rhode Island is on life support in the A-10 but still has a shot if they can make a run to the A-10 finals.
5. UTEP still needs to win the Conference USA championship. They play Tulsa today on Tulsa’s home court. If they win today I think they will win in a rout tomorrow and lock up their bid. 
6. I don’t think that the Pac-10 will “steal” a bid because right now I have them penciled in for two. But if UCLA or Stanford were to win the tournament that would steal a bid.

So the things to watch over the next three days are:

1. Ole Miss. Win and they are in.
2. San Diego State and the Mountain West.
3. The WAC. Utah State needs to win to prevent a stolen bid.
4. Stanford and UCLA in the Pac-10.
5. UTEP. Have to win it all.
6. The A-10. Dayton and Rhode Island are still kicking.

Other than that, I feel like the field is pretty well set. The only team that really played its way out since my projections earlier this week is Connecticut. And the reality is that I wouldn’t be stunned if they still made the field only because if you look at the raw numbers it’s tough to say that Washington definitely has a better resume than the Huskies. But the problem was just how pathetic UConn looked in their blowout loss to St. John’s. So they are out, with St. Mary’s taking their spot.

Below are my most recent NCAA Tournament projections, broken down by seed. Every team that I have listed as a No. 9 seed or higher is pretty much a lock. The No. 10 seeds are very strong in my opinion. The teams that are on shaky ground are the at-large bids that I have posted as No. 11’s, 12’s and 13’s. By my research there looks like there are seven open slots that there are about 14 teams vying for. Now, in my personal opinion there are really only about seven teams fighting for about four open slots. But I’m not on the committee and I’ve been wrong before.

Please note that these projections were done after Thursday night’s games. There is still three full days of hoops and a lot of moving and shaking that will be done. But with the info that we have I’m confident that I’ll be close with the field (likely not the seeding; I always get that wrong.)

I will make a final projection on Doc’s Sports Blog on Sunday so be sure to check it out.

So with all that in mind here are Doc’s Sports NCAA Tournament projections, according to seed:

No. 1 seeds
Kansas
Syracuse
Duke
Kentucky

No. 2 seeds
Purdue
West Virginia
Villanova
Ohio State

No. 3 seeds
Kansas State
New Mexico
Michigan State
Vanderbilt

No. 4 seeds
Maryland
Baylor
Wisconsin
Tennessee

No. 5 seeds
BYU
Butler
Xavier
Georgetown

No. 6 seeds
Texas A&M
Temple
California
Pittsburgh

No. 7 seeds
Gonzaga
Oklahoma State
(Utah State – WAC)****
Marquette

No. 8 seeds
Texas
Richmond
Wake Forest
Missouri

No. 9 seeds
Clemson
NORTHERN IOWA - MVC
Florida State
Louisville

No. 10 seeds
UNLV
Florida
Illinois
OLD DOMINION - COLONIAL

No. 11 seeds
Georgia Tech
Virginia Tech
Mississippi
Notre Dame

No. 12 seeds
SIENA - METRO
CORNELL – IVY LEAGUE
(UTEP*** - CUSA)
ST. MARY’S - WCC

Note: Looking at the numbers I think that UTEP has to win the CUSA tournament in order to make the field. They just don’t have any big nonconference wins. I think that there is absolutely no doubt that they are one of the better teams in the country but I don’t know if they have done enough to earn a spot.

No. 13 seeds
MURRAY STATE – OHIO VALLEY
(Akron - MAC)
Washington
San Diego State

No. 14 seeds
MONTANA – Big Sky
WOFFORD - SOUTHERN
(Pacific – Big West)
NORTH TEXAS – SUN BELT

No. 15 seeds
(Sam Houston State – Southland)
OAKLAND - SUMMIT
(Boston – America East)
EAST TENNESSEE STATE – ATLANTIC SUN

No. 16 seeds
WINTHROP – BIG SOUTH
(Morgan State – MEAC)
(Lehigh – Patriot League)
(Jackson State – SWAC)/ROBERT MORRIS - NEC
                               
CAPS Denotes a team that has already clinched a spot in the NCAA Tournament
() Denotes an automatic bid projection from a small conference

The last 10 teams that I put in, in order, were:

No. 56 – UTEP (if they don’t win the tourney they are not in)
No. 57 – UNLV
No. 58 – Florida
No. 59 – Illinois
No. 60 – Georgia Tech
No. 61 – Notre Dame
No. 62 – Mississippi
No. 63 – Virginia Tech
No. 64 – Washington
No. 65 – San Diego State

The last four teams I left out, in order, were:

No. 66 – Dayton
No. 67 – UTEP (if they don’t win their tournament)
No. 68 – Connecticut (no chance they get in)

Note: I feel like Mississippi, Virginia Tech, San Diego State, Dayton and Washington are fighting for the last few spots. They are all screwed if an upset in a conference tournament occurs.

And let Jay Bilas tell whichever team doesn’t make the field that this was “the weakest at-large field in history”. He is a dick. Connecticut beat three Top 5 teams, nearly beat Kentucky, played the No. 3 schedule in the country, and they are out. Dayton won a game in the tournament and has about a half-dozen gut-wrenching losses. And they may not make it. Washington spent a lot of time in the Top 15. They could be out. So this is how it always is the last few days before the tournament: about five teams fighting for three spots, with any stolen bids throwing a wrench in the plans and bumping teams. I will have my final projections on Sunday and I’m pretty positive that I will get at least 64 of the 65 teams right. And when Joe Lunardi is touting how “accurate” he is, let’s just remember that he had Memphis and Arizona State in until Wednesday night when they have both been out for a month.