There was some small moving and shaking in my NCAA Tournament projections this week. And over the next few weeks there will be a lot more action. In fact, I’m sure that at least two teams that I’m certain are “In” right now will manage to play their way out of a ticket to The Big Dance over the next few weeks.

So it goes. That is the march to The Madness.

There are 65 slots in the NCAA Tournament Field. There are 31 automatic bid leagues in college basketball and my NCAA tournament projections for the 2010 field show that there are 20 one-bid conferences. That means that there are essentially 46 slots open for tournament teams (with 12 conferences at least threatening to get multiple bids). That seems like a lot, but when you start writing down the names I can assure you the field seems much smaller every week.

This week I did something a bit different. I have still included the teams that I feel are ‘In’ the NCAA Tournament. But I’ve also started to make some more definitive (although fluid) NCAA Tournament projections. I have begun projecting how many teams form each conference I feel will end up in the field. Since this is the first time I’ve done it this way I really can’t say whether my projections are based on what would happen if Selection Sunday were this Sunday or what I think will happen over the next month. There is some “feel” that goes into thee NCAA Tournament projections and this is what I’m feeling this week.

Three other things: First, I have bumped the Colonial, the Horizon and the WCC down to the one-bid leagues. None of the teams has a strong enough resume on its own to merit an at-large berth. William & Mary out of the CAA does have wins over Richmond, Maryland and Wake Forest. But they are also currently No. 5 in the Colonial standings. And I think that they would have to win out (five games) and at least make the finals of the Colonial tournament, and then get a ton of help. If that situation starts to creep up I’ll address it then. And St. Mary’s blowout loss to Gonzaga on Thursday has really sunk any shot that they have at an at-large berth, barring something bizarre.

Second, I have not lowered the Missouri Valley and the WAC to one-bid leagues but right now I don’t think that there’s any doubt that they each only have one legitimate team that warrants at-large consideration. Instead, I am leaving them in the “multi-bid pool” because I am already predicting that the top teams (Northern Iowa, Utah State) will be upset in their respective conference tournaments. It happens at least once every year (like Cleveland State last season) and I think we’ll see it again this year. Bank it.

Third, right now I only have 64 teams in the field. I am leaving one spot open for a little more debate. Could the Big 12 get seven teams? Could the Big East get eight? Could the SEC steal six bids? I don’t know. But just for the fun of it – and to stoke the flames – I’m going to leave that last spot up to you.

Here’s a breakdown of what I think the Race for 65 looks like with some NCAA Tournament projections:

Atlantic 10 (Projected Teams: 4)
In: Xavier, Temple, Richmond
Bubble (On Verge): Charlotte, Dayton
Bubble (On Fringe): Rhode Island
Skinny: I can’t believe that I left one of my favorite, and one of my most-bet, teams of the last two seasons off the board last year! I think that Richmond is in the field right now and that they have a better resume than any of the mediocre Big East teams floundering around at the moment. What’s tough is that they close the year at Xavier, hosting Dayton, at Charlotte. Have to win at least one and can’t get upset before that. But they have wins over Mississippi State, Missouri, Florida and Temple. If Dayton closes 5-2 then they are 22-8 and have to be right there and Charlotte may need to win two of three over Xavier (at home), Rhode Island and Richmond (at home). I have to say, if the A-10 doesn’t get four teams – and I think that they deserve five; that’s right FIVE – then we have a major problem with the process of selecting the field.

ACC (Projected Teams: 7)
In: Duke, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest
Bubble (On Verge): Maryland, Clemson,
Bubble: (On Fringe): Florida State, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Skinny: There’s not even a discussion about North Carolina anymore. They are awful and don’t deserve consideration. Virginia Tech has played its way onto the bubble and has some serious steam. But they, like their in-state rival, still have plenty of work to do. The team we’re going to find out all we need to know about in the next two weeks is Maryland. They have Duke, Virginia, Georgia Tech and Clemson in that time. They still need marquee wins, but barring a total collapse this team is in. Wake Forest moved up on the list and I consider them a solid ‘in’ team. Wins over Gonzaga, Richmond and Xavier in the nonconference are looking better and better. A nice revenge win this weekend over G-Tech would be a cherry. I think Florida State has to win out – or at least go 5-1 – to be seriously considered. No way they do it.

Big 12 (Projected Teams: 6)
In: Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Baylor
Bubble (On Verge): Missouri, Texas A&M
Bubble: (On Fringe): Oklahoma State
Skinny: Still pretty quite here. Missouri has a game at Baylor on Saturday and at home against Texas next Wednesday. They also have a crack at K-State and Kansas later in the season. They need at least one, and probably two, to move up a line. But they are in pretty good shape. They may be in a two-men-enter, one-man-leave situation with Texas A&M, which is looking god and has Kansas, Baylor and Texas coming up. Oklahoma State has lost three straight and is on life support. They are barely even on this list and have nada in the nonconference slate to keep them afloat. They have to beat Oklahoma and Iowa State and then need at least one win in a Baylor-Texas-Kansas trifecta in the span of seven days. I think they are a long shot. In reality, it’s all about how the four teams that are already in play down the stretch. If they dominate it could hurt the conference.

Big East (Projected Teams: 7)
In: Villanova, Syracuse, Georgetown, West Virginia
Bubble (On Verge): Louisville, Marquette, Pittsburgh
Bubble (On Fringe): Cincinnati, Notre Dame, South Florida, Connecticut
Skinny: The reality is that while the Big East will end up with seven or eight teams this year I’m not sure that they deserve more than six. Connecticut has lost four of five, their lone win was an unimpressive one over DePaul, and their Texas win is losing luster. I predicted South Florida as my BE sleeper this year. And if Gus Gilchrist (who’s back) hadn’t gotten hurt this year I think that they would have made the tourney. They play Marquette and Villanova on the road and need to not get embarrassed by those teams, as well as win their other four home games. I think they end up in the NIT though, along with Notre Dame, Cincinnati and Connecticut. However, a lot of these bubble teams go head-to-head down the stretch in this league. If they beat each other up they are only getting seven. One of the “Fringe” teams really needs to get hot to distinguish itself.

Big Ten (Projected Teams: 5)
In: Michigan State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Ohio State, Illinois
Bubble (On Verge): None
Bubble (On Fringe): Minnesota, Northwestern
Skinny: Well, it doesn’t matter that Kalon Lucas was injured. What matters is that Illinois beat Michigan State and then got a stunning win at Wisconsin. Barring a collapse (I think they need to split with Ohio State to be 100 percent) I think that they are in. Minnesota and Northwestern are NIT bound, barring a miracle (like a 9-0 run by one of them, which won’t happen). I think this league gets a solid five. Any more than that and I’ll puke.

Conference USA (Projected Teams: 1)
In: None
Bubble (On Verge): None
Bubble (On Fringe): UTEP, UAB
Skinny: UTEP and UAB are both long shots to earn an at-large bid. UTEP would likely have to go 5-1 to close the season (making them 22-7) and then make the CUSA tourney final to even be considered. And that likely wouldn’t be enough. UAB still has wins over Cincinnati, Butler and suddenly spry Arkansas. But they need to get at least two of three over Marshall, Memphis and UTEP, take care of their other games against weaker teams, and then make a run to the CUSA finals. If they do that they would be about 26-7 and would be really tough to overlook.

Missouri Valley (Projected Teams: 2)
In: Northern Iowa
Bubble: (On Verge): None
Bubble (On Fringe): None
Skinny: Wichita State is done. They lost at Evansville and I don’t even think that a win at Utah State (which they won’t get) in their Bracket Buster game can make up for it. This is a one-bid league…unless there is a tournament upset.  And I predict that there will be one. The top seed seemingly never wins this conference tournament.

Mountain West (Projected Teams: 3)
In: BYU, New Mexico
Bubble (On Verge): UNLV
Bubble (On Fringe): None
Skinny: Losing at home to New Mexico was tough for UNLV. But if they can win at San Diego State this Saturday I think that they are in a position to run the table and lock up a berth. They have wins over Louisville, Arizona, BYU and New Mexico, but that may not be enough. They need to finish strong.  

Pac-10 (Projected Teams: 2)
In: None
Bubble (On Verge): California, Arizona
Bubble (On Fringe): Arizona State
Skinny: Arizona has played an unbelievable schedule this year. But they didn’t beat anyone. How will the committee look at that? Cal will not win the Pac-10 conference title (not enough depth and toughness to win three straight games) but I think that they will close strong and get in based on their SOS. Regardless, this is still just a two-bid league. And if you don’t believe it, compare Arizona State or Washington’s resume (or, for that matter, Cal or Arizona’s) with Richmond’s. Case closed. 

SEC (Projected Teams: 5)
In: Tennessee, Kentucky, Vanderbilt
Bubble (On Verge): Mississippi, Mississippi State
Bubble (On Fringe): South Carolina, Florida
Skinny: Beware of Arkansas. They don’t make the list because they are just 13-11. But they have won five straight and have four more winnable games coming up. They did nothing in the nonconference though so they likely can only make it in if they win out (seven games) and make the SEC Finals. Then they might get “hot team” consideration. Ole Miss is struggling. They have three straight home games against Vandy, Florida and Auburn and I think they need to win all three of them. A 4-2 close to the year leaves them 21-9 but they need a marquee conference win. Miss State swept Ole Miss but still probably needs to beat either Kentucky or Tennessee, and they get both games at home. South Carolina has a brutal schedule to close and I think they will fade. Florida has a crucial game this Saturday against Xavier and still has shots at Ole Miss, Tennessee, Vandy and Kentucky. They need two wins in those three games. 

WAC (Projected Teams: 2)
In: Utah State
Bubble (On Verge): None
Bubble (On Fringe): None
Skinny: None of the secondary teams in this conference have a realistic shot at an at-large berth. But I am already predicting that Utah State will NOT win their conference tournament, which is on Nevada’s home floor this year. There is too much depth, experience and talent in this conference for their not to be an upset. I think Utah State will lose in the semifinals and that a WAC team will “steal” a bid from another mid-major conference.

Automatic Bid Leagues (Projected Teams: 20):
America East – Stony Brook
Atlantic Sun – Jacksonville
Big Sky – Weber State
Big South – Coastal Carolina
Big West – Pacific
Colonial – VCU
Ivy League – Cornell
Horizon – Butler*
Mid-American – Kent State
Metro – Siena
MEAC – Morgan State
Northeast – Robert Morris
Ohio Valley – Murray State
Patriot League – Lafayette
Southern – Western Carolina
Southland – Sam Houston State
SWAC – Texas Southern
Summit – Oakland
Sun Belt – North Texas
WCC – Gonzaga*

* Denotes team that is in the field even if they get upset in their conference tournament. The Horizon and the WCC are leagues from which a bid could potentially be “stolen” by the top teams not winning the automatic berth.