It’s time to order yourself a few $5 foot-longs and hunker down for the longest race in Phoenix International Raceway history as Carl Edwards will record his 200th start and Elliot Sadler celebrates his 400th career Sprint Cup start in the Land of the Sun as NASCAR races under the lights for the first time this season for the Subway Fresh Fit 600 on Sunday, April 11 at 7:45 p.m. 

If you are planning on investing on the outcome of this race keep in mind that this year there is an increase in the race’s length by 63 more laps. Drivers will have to drive 375 laps rather than the 312 laps. This will definitely put a premium on the driver’s endurance and how the track will change over the course of the race. And in case you are wondering, this race will be won on the team that plays fuel mileage strategy the best. 

Who will win the Subway Fresh Fit 600?

The added length to the race will not help the prospects of one of NASCAR’s hottest drivers, Denny Hamlin. Hamlin is fresh off of knee surgery and may not be able to complete the race (Casey Mears is set as his replacement). The lengthy race couldn’t come at a worse time for Hamlin. He moved up four spots in the standings after Martinsville. He is looking for his fifth straight top-six finish at PIR but the +1500 odds tell me that bookmakers don’t anticipate a serious challenge from Hamlin on Sunday and I’d advise laying off the No. 11 car this week.

Another driver I’d warn against backing is Joey Logano, the driver of the No. 20 Home Depot car. Logano did not fare well at PIR in his rookie season, finishing 21st in both races. And in both races it looked like the paved track was giving him difficulty. Until he shows me he has a better grip of the track at PIR I am going to advise against backing the youngster.

Mark Martin put NASCAR on notice last year that old men can still race as he won the PIR pole and claimed the distinction of being the oldest driver to accomplish such a feat -- he won the race as well. This year age is taking the backseat as Martin is listed as the second favorite at +700 behind Jimmie Johnson (who is set at +400) to win at the one-mile oval. Both are Hendrick Motorsports’ drivers and both are good bets to win.

It is really no surprise that Jimmy Johnson leads the Sprint Cup standings since he has the best crew chief in the business, a car set up each week by team HMS and an uncanny ability to dominate on intermediate tracks. Last November on the one-mile oval in Phoenix Johnson won for the fourth time. Johnson won his first race at PIR in 2007 and then three consecutive races from November 2008 to November 2009. In last April’s race Johnson finished a disappointing fourth place. Betting on Johnson to win and to finish in the top three seems to make sound fiduciary sense. I know backing Johnson at PIR might be as exciting as watching bread toast but somehow I never lose my excitement cashing a winning ticket.

Pick! Jimmie Johnson, (No. 48), +400

Subway Fresh Fit 600 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special

I had to double check the odds when I saw that Biffle had been listed at such long odds to win this Sunday. And, in fact, I love Biffle at +550 to finish the race in the top three as well. He charged up two places to second in the NSCS standings. Biffle had a top-10 finish at Martinsville two weeks ago and looks to remain consistent at his favorite West Coast track. At PIR Biffle has notched three top-10 finishes in his last five races and has three top-five finishes in his last 12 races. In last year’s race Biffle finished fifth but has never won a Sprint Cup race at PIR. Providing Biffle qualifies well on Friday I wouldn’t be too surprised if he gives the favorites a serious challenge throughout the race on Sunday.     
 
Pick!  Greg Biffle, (No. 16), +1500

Subway Fresh Fit 600 - Odds to Finish in the Top 3

Looking at this race I see a handful of drivers I like in this category. However, I have noticed an informal trench has been that +350 is a winning price when you want to back drivers to finish in the top three. Richard Childress Racing’s Jeff Burton is currently in fifth place in the NSCS standings and -113 points behind the leader. Burton moved up two spots thanks to a seventh-place finish at Martinsville. Burton will look to build on the momentum from Martinsville at PIR, a track where he has had success in the past. In Burton’s last time racing at PIR he finished second to Jimmie Johnson and last April he finished 15th. Burton races well at PIR as witnessed by his back-to-back wins in 2000-2001 and his six top-five finishes. Burton has recorded four top-10 finishes in his last five PIR starts. Burtons strong recent showing at PIR combined with how well he has begun the 2010 campaign makes the No. 31 car my pick to finish in the top three.  

Pick!  Jeff Burton, (No. 31), +350

Odds to finish in Top 3 at Subway Fresh Fit 600*

Mark Martin  +200
Jeff Gordon    +250
Kurt Busch      +250
Jimmie Johnson +300
Kyle Busch +300
Tony Stewart +350
Jeff Burton  +350
Denny Hamlin +450
Matt Kenseth  +450
Clint Bowyer  +450
Kevin Harvick +450
Carl Edwards +550
Greg Biffle      +550
Juan Pablo Montoya +600
Kasey Kahne   +900
Dale Earnhardt Jr +900
Joey Logano    +900
Ryan Newman +1200
David Reutimann +1500
Brian Vickers +1500
Martin Truex Jr +1500
Jamie McMurray +1500
David Ragan   +2200
Bobby Labonte +3000
Regan Smith   +3000
Scott Speed +3000
zx Field (Any Other Driver) +3000
Paul Menard    +3000
Elliott Sadler   +3000
AJ Allmendinger +3000
Marcos Ambrose +3000
Brad Keselowski +3000
Travis Kvapil +3000
Sam Hornish Jr +3000
                       
*Odds courtesy of Sportsbook.com
           
Odds to win Subway Fresh Fit 600*

Jimmie Johnson  +400
Mark Martin    +700
Jeff Gordon    +800
Kurt Busch      +800
Kyle Busch     +1000
Tony Stewart +1200
Jeff Burton      +1200
Denny Hamlin +1500
Matt Kenseth  +1500
Clint Bowyer +1500
Kevin Harvick +1500
Carl Edwards +1800
Greg Biffle      +1800
Juan Pablo Montoya  +2000
Kasey Kahne   +3000
Dale Earnhardt Jr +3000
Joey Logano    +3000
Ryan Newman +4000
David Reutimann +5000
Brian Vickers +5000
Martin Truex Jr +5000
Jamie McMurray +5000
David Ragan   +7500
Bobby Labonte +10000
Regan Smith   +10000
Scott Speed     +10000
zx Field (Any Other Driver) +10000
Paul Menard  +10000
Elliott Sadler +10000
AJ Allmendinger +10000
Marcos Ambrose +10000
Brad Keselowski +10000
Travis Kvapil  +10000
Sam Hornish Jr +10000
           
*Odds courtesy of Sportsbook.com