Don't look now, but in two weeks Kyle Busch has shaved 119 points the lead of newly-minted Sprint Cup leader Kevin Harvick. Thanks to last week's win at Richmond Busch moved to third place in the NSCS standings as NASCAR races under the lights for an intermediate-track extravaganza at historic Darlington Raceway on Saturday night at 7:45 p.m. EST.

Gamblers interested in investing in the outcome of the Showtime Southern 500 should note that at the narrow track of Darlington track position is everything. That said, you should know that 86.8 percent of all races at Darlington have been won from the top-10 spots on the grid while the pole-sitter has won 17.6 percent of all races (19); second has won 14.5 percent of all races (16); and third place has won 12.8 percent of all races (13), so it makes sense to wait until after qualifiers on Friday before risking your V-chips. 

Who will win the Showtime Southern 500?

Over the course of the last two years NASCAR's Darlington race has been one of the hardest races to predict to due the fact that the last two races were won by drivers outside the top 10 in pre-race driver rankings. Mark Martin, the race's defending champion, was ranked 12th and in 2008 Kyle Busch was 13th before the race started.  

However, even with this knowledge I am not shy about writing that there are a couple of drivers I wouldn't bet this Saturday night: Juan Pablo Montoya (25/1) and Tony Stewart (15/1). Both drivers had trouble last week at Richmond (JPM hates the track and it doesn't suit his driving style). JPM finished 19th while Stewart managed to finish better at 18th place. Neither driver has won at Darlington, but in Stewart's defense he finished third last year during his monster season as a rookie owner-driver of Stewart-Haas Racing. While Stewart has finished in the top10 in 10 out of 17 times this season, however, Stewart has had five consecutive finishes of 16th or higher. Meanwhile, JPM has managed to hit the wall in his last three Darlington races and has never managed to finish better than 20th.

Two weeks ago at the Aaron's 499 Jimmie Johnson had his worst finish of the year with a dismal 31st. Unfortunately for JJ, Kevin Harvick won the race and that put Harvick in position to overtake Johnson for the Sprint Cup lead. Last weekend Harvick finished third at Richmond and Johnson finished 10th, giving Harvick a 10-point advantage over Johnson as he took over first place.

This is the first time that Johnson hasn't led the standings in more than a month, but now NASCAR heads to an intermediate-track which should give Johnson a decided edge going into Darlington since it can be argued that Johnson is an intermediate-track specialist and one of the best active drivers in NASCAR.  In fact, Johnson swept both races at Darlington in 2004 (back when there were still two races there) and has notched six top-fives and nine top-10 finishes in 11 starts at Darlington. It is hard to imagine Johnson driving three bad races in a row. After 10 races Johnson has picked up three wins, but he hasn't won since March 21 (gasp!). Of course, Johnson has had two top-three finishes in the beginning of April but nothing of note since, which makes Johnson my pick to win the Showtime Southern 500 on Saturday night.

Pick! Jimmie Johnson, (No. 48) +600

Showtime Southern 500 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special

In his past five races Rousch Fenway Racing's Greg Biffle has finished 10th twice, 22nd twice and 17th once. This swoon has dropped Biffle from second after Martinsville to fifth place after Richmond in the Sprint Cup standings; 133 points out of first. This week at Darlington Biffle has a chance to move up the standings again as, according to Loop Data, Biffle has a driver rating of 123.1 , the best rating of all active drivers. Biffle has won twice at Darlington in 2005 and 2006. Biffle also has the best Average Running Position at Darlington with 7.6. Since he has been driving on the NASCAR circuit Biffle has won at least one race each year-until last year when the best he could do were three third-place finishes. In eight years Biffle has generally excelled at the swift-and-narrow track of Darlington, which makes him my Lucky Dog Long Odds special for Saturday night.    

Pick! Greg Biffle, No. 16, (+2000)

Showtime Southern 500 - Odds to Finish in the Top 3

Simply put, Gordon must be tired of coming in second and being relegated as “irrelevant” compared to teammate Jimmie Johnson. Coming into Darlington Gordon has a chance to break his 21-race winless streak and continue his upward climb on the Sprint Cup leaderboad. Gordon almost won last week at Richmond, but he eventually lost to restart king Kyle Bush, who is quickly proving to the NASCAR community that he is the best when it comes to restarts (single or double-file). The result was Gordon left Richmond in second and now questions arise about his ability to close out races.

Richmond was the fourth time this season that Gordon should have won. He now has two second and two third-place finishes, but no wins on the season. This has led to charges that his best days have passed him by or that he is becoming more of a family man now that he has kids. Whatever the charges you have to like Gordon's chances at one of his two best tracks on the circuit. Gordon has won seven times at Darlington, but hasn't won since 2007. Equally impressive are his 17 top-five finishes in 29 starts. If Gordon hopes to move up another four spots in the standings like he did last week he'll need to finish close to the front of the Showtime Southern 500. Given his penchant for almost winning I like Gordon to almost win this week, which is why he is my pick to finish in the top three at Darlington.

Pick! Jeff Gordon, (No. 24), +180

Odds to finish in Top 3 at Showtime Southern 500*

AJ Allmendinger +3000
Bobby Labonte +3000
Brad Keselowski +1500
Brian Vickers  +900
Carl Edwards  +600
Clint Bowyer  +550
Dale Earnhardt Jr +750
David Ragan +3000
David Reutimann +1200
Denny Hamlin +250
Elliott Sadler +3000
Greg Biffle +600
Jamie McMurray +1500
Jeff Burton +350
Jeff Gordon +180
Jimmie Johnson +180
Joey Logano +750
Juan Pablo Montoya +750
Kasey Kahne +750
Kevin Harvick +350
Kurt Busch +350
Kyle Busch +180
Marcos Ambrose +3000
Mark Martin +350
Martin Truex Jr +1200
Matt Kenseth +600
Paul Menard +3000
Regan Smith +3000
Ryan Newman +1200
Sam Hornish Jr +3000
Scott Speed +3000
Tony Stewart +450
Travis Kvapil +3000
zx Field (Any Other Driver) +3000

*Odds courtesy of Sportsbook.com
           
Odds to win Showtime Southern 500*

AJ Allmendinger +10000
Bobby Labonte +10000
Brad Keselowski +5000
Brian Vickers  +3000
Carl Edwards+2000
Clint Bowyer +1800
Dale Earnhardt Jr +2500
David Ragan +10000
David Reutimann +4000
Denny Hamlin +800
Elliott Sadler +10000
Greg Biffle +2000
Jamie McMurray +5000
Jeff Burton +1200
Jeff Gordon +600
Jimmie Johnson +600
Joey Logano +2500   
Juan Pablo Montoya +2500
Kasey Kahne +2500
Kevin Harvick +1200
Kurt Busch +1200
Kyle Busch +600
Marcos Ambrose +10000
Mark Martin +1200
Martin Truex Jr +4000
Matt Kenseth +2000
Paul Menard +10000
Regan Smith +10000
Ryan Newman            +4000
Sam Hornish Jr +10000
Scott Speed +10000
Tony Stewart +1500
Travis Kvapil +10000
zx Field (Any Other Driver) +10000
           
                       
*Odds courtesy of Sportsbook.com