For the first and only time this season NASCAR heads to the desert as the Sprint Cup series visits Las Vegas Motor Speedway for the newly branded Shelby American this Sunday, Feb 28 at 3:30 p.m. Hometown hero Kyle Busch will look to win this race for the second year in a row.
 
Who will win the Shelby American at LVMS?

I won’t recommend a play on 2008 Shelby American race winner Carl Edwards this weekend. His wife, Kate, gave birth to a baby girl, Anne, on Wednesday. While Edwards is the consummate professional driver it’s not hard to imagine what a whirlwind this week has been for the new Dad. Don’t forget the rapid decline of Jeff Gordon two years ago when his wife and newborn were in the trailer. Last year, as a result, Gordon kicked everyone out of the trailer. In a side note NASCAR legend JC ‘Suitcase Jake’ Elder died on Wednesday at 73. It is safe to say that he will be greatly missed in the NASCAR family. 

Speaking of NASCAR family it’s never a good sign when one of the faces of NASCAR decides to grow a beard. Johnson was toying with the facial sweater during the offseason and now it seems like Junior has turned to a post-season hockey superstition of not shaving until the season is finished. It is most likely things won’t pick-up for the No. 88 car this weekend for two reasons (whether he shaves or not).  
 
This is the first time that Junior will race at LVMS with new Crew Chief Lance McGrew and the results might not be pretty. The second reason is that spooky axle problem over at Hendrick Motorsports which nobody has been able to explain. Junior’s 32nd-place finish at ACS last week was a result of a broken axle. Jimmie Johnson won the race but was about six laps from a broken axle and in the final practice on Saturday Mark Martin’s axle was totally busted. Until this problem is figured out, and I am sure it will be, I am staying away from all four HMS drivers. Even though Johnson is favored to win this Sunday I am laying off the No. 48 in all categories. Keep in mind that LVMS and Atlanta are historically very hard on axles so if the problem hasn’t been rectified by Sunday you might see more than one HMS driver in the back of the pack rather than the front. Finally, Jeff Gordon has had a terrible start to the 2010 season and has yet to record a top-15 finish.  
Gamblers investing in this race should note that LVMS is one of three venues in NASCAR that Tony Stewart has never won at. In fact, as well as Stewart did last year as owner/operator of his minted Stewart-Haas Racing this year Stewart has gone the other direction and it seems after two races SHR is struggling to keep up with the Joneses. Ryan Newman, SHR driver, will start his 299th race Sprint Cup race on Sunday.   
 
En route to winning the race last year Kyle Busch led for 51 laps and won the race as the pole-sitter. A great hometown victory for Busch, who, like David Reutimann, had to struggle for the win in a back-up car. Last week Busch struggled from the middle of the pack to the front and then back to the middle, eventually finishing the race in a frustrating 14th place. There is something about LVMS that lends itself to back-to-back wins. Burton did it 1999-2000 and Johnson did it three times from 2005-07, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kyle Busch repeat this year. 

Pick! Kyle Busch, No. 18, (8/1) 

Shelby American at LVMS - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special

Even though Michael Waltrip Racing’s David Reutimann has been involved in car wrecks in two consecutive races he has cracked the Top 10 in the Sprint Cup standings and currently sits in eighth place after two races. Big deal, right? It is only two races. However, in only two races at LVMS Reutimann has improved tremendously. In his rookie season in 2008 he finished 37th after starting 14th. However, last year he started from fourth on the grid and finished fourth for his first top-five at LVMS. Keep in mind finishing fourth was a battle for the No. 00 car because of an oil leak early which forced Reutimann to pit before they wanted and they had to go to a back-up motor as well. Here is the kicker about backing Reutimann on the 1.5 mile D-oval: in his last 10 races on a 1.5-mile track he ranks second to Jeff Gordon in total points (1,352). And even more impressive, he has one win, two top-fives, four top-10s and two poles. He has led 51 laps and has an average finish of 11th with no finish worse than 20th. So, as I said, I like him in all three categories this week. Bet him across the board as your long odds pick, your top-3 finisher and your winner SU and, who knows, maybe you’ll bang the trifecta.   
 
Pick! David Reutimann, No. 00, (60/1) 

Shelby American at LVMS - Odds to Finish in the Top 3

In all honesty my pick this week for the top-3 finisher could have been any one of the three Richard Childress Racing drivers. RCR has been the hot-team after two races and if last week’s race at Fontana was any indication RCR might be the team to challenge HMS total domination of the sport. At the Auto Club 500 last week Kevin Harvick, who should have won the race, finished second, Jeff Burton finished third and Clint Bowyer, who had been running in the Top 10 for most of the race, finished eighth. Last year Bowyer and Burton finished this race second and third, respectively. Burton led last year’s race for 61 laps as well. This is one of the many reasons I threw the dart at Burton. Burton has the best driver rating, 98.5, at LVMS of the three RCR drivers, and he runs well at Las Vegas. Burton won back-to-back years in 1999-2000 when he was racing for Jack Rousch. He also has eight top-10 finishes in 12 races at LVMS. Burton moved up to fifth in the Sprint Cup standings after ACS last week and is currently in fifth place a second consecutive top-three finish should help his 2010 Sprint Cup campaign.  
 
Pick! Jeff Burton, No. 31, (9/2 )  

Odds to finish in Top 3 at Shelby American*
Las Vegas Motor Speedway, NV
Sun, Feb 28th (3:30 p.m. EST)

Jimmie Johnson 13/10
Mark Martin 2/1
Kyle Busch 5/2
Jeff Gordon 3/1
Denny Hamlin 7/2
Tony Stewart 7/2
Kevin Harvick 9/2
Jeff Burton 9/2
Greg Biffle 9/2
Juan Pablo Montoya 9/2
Clint Bowyer 9/2
Carl Edwards 11/2
Kurt Busch 11/2
Matt Kenseth 6/1
Brian Vickers 15/2
Kasey Kahne 15/2
Ryan Newman 9/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr 9/1
Joey Logano 12/1
Martin Truex Jr 18/1
David Reutimann 18/1
Jamie McMurray 18/1
David Ragan 22/1
zx Field (Any Other Driver) 30/1
Brad Keselowski 30/1
Marcos Ambrose 30/1
Sam Hornish Jr 30/1
AJ Allmendinger 60/1
Scott Speed 90/1        
Elliott Sadler   90/1    
Bobby Labonte 150/1
Regan Smith   150/1
Travis Kvapil   150/1
Paul Menard    150/1

*Odds courtesy of sportsbook.com
           
Odds to win Shelby American*
Las Vegas Motor Speedway, NV
Sun, Feb 28th (3:30 p.m. EST)
 
A.J. Allmendinger 200/1  
Bobby Labonte 250/1  
Brad Keselowski 100/1  
Brian Vickers 25/1  
Carl Edwards 18/1  
Clint Bowyer 15/1  
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 25/1  
David Ragan 75/1  
David Reutimann 60/1  
Denny Hamlin 12/1  
Elliott Sadler 250/1  
Greg Biffle 15/1  
Jamie McMurray 45/1  
Jeff Burton 15/1  
Jeff Gordon 10/1  
Jimmie Johnson 9/2  
Joey Logano 35/1  
Juan Pablo Montoya 15/1  
Kasey Kahne 25/1  
Kevin Harvick 15/1  
Kurt Busch 18/1  
Kyle Busch 8/1  
Marcos Ambrose 100/1  
Mark Martin 7/1  
Martin Truex Jr. 60/1  
Matt Kenseth 20/1  
Paul Menard 250/1  
Regan Smith 250/1  
Ryan Newman 30/1  
Sam Hornish Jr 100/1  
Scott Speed 250/1  
Tony Stewart 12/1  
Travis Kvapil 250/1  
Field (Any Other Driver) 100/1  

*Odds courtesy of Bodog