NASCAR: Sunoco Red Cross Pennsylvania 500 Odds and Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard - 7/31/2010
Jamie MacMurray's victory at the Brickyard last Sunday made Chip Ganassi the first team owner in history to win the Daytona 500, Indianapolis 500, and the Brickyard 400 in the same season. MacMurray brought home the victories at Daytona and Indianapolis in NASCAR while Dario Franchitti won the Indy 500 in the Indy Car Series. However, Kevin Harvick finished second at the Brickyard and increased his stranglehold on the NSCS lead by 189 points as the Sprint Cup heads to Pocono Raceway on Sunday at 1:15 p.m. for the Sunoco Red Cross Pennsylvania 500.
Auto sport enthusiasts looking to increase their V-chips should keep in mind that in 65 races held at Pocono the winner has come from the front row 23 times, and 14 of those wins have come from the pole. Overall a total of 45 races have been won from the top four spots on the grid. In June Denny Hamlin won at Pocono from the four-hole.
Who will win the Pennsylvania 500?
Harvick is continuing his dream season as he is still in first place by more points than can be made up in a single race. so if for some reason he doesn't make the race on Sunday he'll still be in first place when it’s finished. But that is highly unlikely for the season point leader as he heads into Sunday's race never having won at Pocono and he only has three top-five finishes and six top-10s in 16 starts. Pocono is not Harvick's best track, but it doesn't have to be; all Harvick needs to do is to manage a good race and finish in the middle of the pack. That’s something he is entirely capable of and with that in mind I wouldn't back Harvick to win or as a top-three finish prospect.
Meanwhile, Kyle Busch, who has been rather silent this year when it comes to wins, had a good weekend at Indy last week. You may not have heard but Busch lost his longtime spotter, Jeff Dickerson, before the race and had to use Eddie D'Hondt. The match seemed to work well as Busch overcame an early race spinout to finish eighth at the Brickyard; his best finish since his second-place result at Pocono in June. If there is a driver I like to really give Hamlin a challenge this Sunday it’s Busch who, if he qualifies well, can give Hamlin a run for first and perhaps give Sunday's race an exciting finish. While it’s impossible not to back Hamlin to win on Sunday, Busch provides an excellent second choice at +800 for your money. Oh yeah, and don't feel too bad for Dickerson because if rumors are true he'll be spotting for Hamlin on Sunday. That makes for an interesting perspective, don't you think?
With only six races before the Chase, Harvick is still in first place and if anyone has a chance to cut into those 189 points this Sunday it’s defending race champion Denny Hamlin, who is also on a two-race win streak at Pocono. Hamlin is currently in third place, 260 points behind Harvick and 76 points behind Jeff Gordon. However, Hamlin sports a 119.7 driver rating at Pocono, a full 16 points over Kurt Busch and Jimmie Johnson, the second best drivers at Pocono. Hamlin has four wins and six top-five finishes in nine starts at Pocono and has proven time and again that he is the best driver here. Hamlin did it from the start of his rookie season in 2006 by sweeping both races in Pennsylvania. While there are no "locks" in auto-sport, backing Hamlin to finish in the top-three at +130 or to win at +450 seems like a relatively risk-free investment.
Pick! Denny Hamlin, No. 11, +450
Pennsylvania 500 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special
On the surface it looks like Rousch Fenway Racing won't field a winner on Sunday with Greg Biffle. He has performed dismally at Pocono with only two top-10 finishes in 15 starts, but he has reason to be optimistic after his third-place finish at the Brickyard. Crew Chief Greg Erwin is bringing the same car that ran so well at Indianapolis to Pocono. Biffle could use another good finish as he is currently in 11th place in the Sprint Cup standings, but only 78-points from relegation (better known as 13th place). Biffle is winless this year, but he led at the Brickyard for 38 laps and had one of the fastest cars on the track, but that did not translate into a win for the No. 16 Ford. Of course, a lot will depend upon how Biffle qualifies. If he can start up front and his car performs like it did last week then he could end his 2010 win drought in the Keystone State.
Pick! Greg Biffle, No. 16, +1800
Pennsylvania 500 - Top Three Finish
Johnson will look to rebound from his 22nd-place finish at the Brickyard last weekend. He went down a lap early due to a damaged front splitter and did well to battle back to the lead lap. Double-J is a two-time winner at Pocono and will look to improve over his fifth-place finish in June at the triangle. Johnson swept both races in 2004 and when he finished 13 last August it was the first time he finished outside the top-10 at Pocono in six starts. Granted, Johnson hasn't won since back-to-back victories in California and New Hampshire. Johnson has had difficulty adjusting to the new spoiler, but what makes Johnson great is his ability to adapt and change to each track and race. Johnson has a 103.7 driver rating at Pocono, which is second only to Denny Hamlin. I don't think Johnson will win at Pocono, but I do see team Hendrick Motorsports bringing in a top two or three car for him to drive.
Pick! Jimmie Johnson, No. 48, +150
ODDS TO WIN - SUNOCO RED CROSS PENNSYLVANIA 500
Pocono RACEway - AUG 01, 2010 13:15 EST
Denny Hamlin
+450
Jimmie Johnson
+500
Jeff Gordon
+800
Kyle Busch
+800
Kevin Harvick
+1000
Tony Stewart
+1000
Jeff Burton
+1500
Clint Bowyer
+1500
Greg Biffle
+1800
Kurt Busch
+2000
Juan Pablo Montoya
+2000
Kasey Kahne
+2000
Carl Edwards
+2000
Jamie McMurray
+2000
Mark Martin
+2500
Matt Kenseth
+3000
Joey Logano
+3500
Ryan Newman
+4000
Martin Truex Jr
+4000
David Reutimann
+5000
Dale Earnhardt Jr
+5000
AJ Allmendinger
+8000
Paul Menard
+10000
Scott Speed
+10000
Bobby Labonte
+10000
Travis Kvapil
+10000
zx Field (Any Other Driver)
+10000
Regan Smith
+10000
Elliott Sadler
+10000
Sam Hornish Jr
+10000
Marcos Ambrose
+10000
David Ragan
+10000
Reed Sorenson
+10000
Brad Keselowski
+10000
SUNOCO RED CROSS PENNSYLVANIA 500 TOP THREE FINISH
POCONO RACEWAY - AUG 01, 2010 13:15 EST
Denny Hamlin
+130
Jimmie Johnson
+150
Kyle Busch
+240
Jeff Gordon
+240
Kevin Harvick
+300
Tony Stewart
+300
Jeff Burton
+450
Clint Bowyer
+450
Greg Biffle
+500
Kurt Busch
+600
Carl Edwards
+600
Juan Pablo Montoya
+600
Kasey Kahne
+600
Jamie McMurray
+600
Mark Martin
+750
Matt Kenseth
+900
Joey Logano
+1000
Martin Truex Jr
+1200
Ryan Newman
+1200
David Reutimann
+1500
Dale Earnhardt Jr
+1500
AJ Allmendinger
+2400
Marcos Ambrose
+3000
Sam Hornish Jr
+3000
Elliott Sadler
+3000
Regan Smith
+3000
Paul Menard
+3000
Scott Speed
+3000
Bobby Labonte
+3000
Travis Kvapil
+3000
David Ragan
+3000
Reed Sorenson
+3000
zx Field (Any Other Driver)
+3000
Brad Keselowski
+3000
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