NASCAR Predictions: Sylvania 300 Odds and Betting Picks
by Christopher G. Shepard - 9/18/2010
Jimmie Johnson will attempt a season sweep at New Hampshire Motor Speedway this Sunday afternoon at 1:15 as the Chase for the Sprint Cup revs up for the first of the 10-race NASCAR playoff. Meanwhile, with a win at Loudon, Denny Hamlin has a chance put the other Chasers on notice after last weekend's win at the Air Guard 400.
Gamblers interested in investing in the outcome of the Sylvania 300 should keep in mind that there have been 11 consecutive different race winners. There are only two drivers who have earned season sweeps at NHMS: Jimmie Johnson in '03 and Kurt Busch in '04. Of the 31 races held in New Hampshire there have been 20 different winners, but only four winners have come from the pole. Finally, Jeff Burton owns four victories, good for most at New Hampshire of all active drivers. Hendrick Motorsports cars have won eight times, the most of any NASCAR team.
Who will win the Sylvania 300?
It’s almost as if the regular season didn't matter. Almost. As of now we enter NASCAR's version of the playoffs. Ten races are designed to decide the winner of the Sprint Cup -- the top-12 drivers have all been awarded 5,000 points. Without the points reset and under the old system Kevin Harvick would have 3,723 points, good enough for first and 228 points in front of Kyle Busch.
Drivers were awarded 10 bonus points per regular season win. Denny Hamlin will start in the lead-despite never leading in the Sprint Cup standings in 2010 and finishing 10th in the regular season-with 60 points, 10 points ahead of Johnson, who finished the regular season seventh.
Rounding out the pack are Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick, with 30 bonus points, Kurt Busch with 20 bonus points, Greg Biffle and Tony Stewart with 10 bonus points and Carl Edwards, Jeff Gordon, Jeff Burton, and Clint Bowyer with no bonus points. Thankfully, you can bet that all 12 drivers will go all-out on Sunday. And don't forget, however unlikely, there are 31 other drivers who would love to beat a Chaser as well.
Carl Edwards, my pick at the beginning of the season to win the Chase, has been the most consistent driver during the past 10 races of the regular season. I keep expecting that his next race will be the one we see the back flip, and each week I have been disappointed. This Sunday Edwards will bring in RK-647, the same Ford Fusion that finished 25th in June.
Speaking of Sunday, no driver in the Chase is better at New Hampshire than Hamlin, who boasts an impressive 8.2 average finish at 'the Magic Mile.' Johnson is a close second with an average finish of 9.0 and won the June race in dominant fashion.
Johnson brought his back-up chassis, No. 540, to New Hampshire in June. This is the same chassis that he'll bring on Sunday. Chassis No. 540 has been great for Johnson as it has won four times in five starts. No. 540 last won at Martinsville in 2009.
Hamlin, on the other hand, is bringing a new chassis, JGR 282, to New Hampshire and will put his regular ride, JRG 267, as his back up. This is the X-factor that makes me shy away from picking Hamlin to win. Introducing a new chassis for the first race of the Chase might be a decision Joe Gibbs Racing regrets.
Pick! Jimmie Johnson, No. 48, (+400)
Sylvania 300 - Long Odds Lucky Dog
Five out of the 12 Chasers will start in last place, -60 points behind the points leader Hamlin. Now that the points have been reset any driver in the Chase has a chance to win the Sprint Cup. Of course, starting with a points deficit is not the best position to win the Sprint Cup, but it isn't insurmountable if they race well at New Hampshire this week. One driver I am looking at to make some noise on Sunday afternoon is Clint Bowyer. The linesmakers have listed Bowyer as 18/1 to win the Chase, but looking at the Sylvania 300, Bowyer's odds have dropped to 12/1. In nine starts at NHMS Bowyer has notched one win, one pole, and three top-10 finishes. In 2007 Bowyer was the pole-sitter and won the race (this was his first Sprint Cup victory). Bowyer finished the 2007 Chase in third place. At New Hampshire's June race Bowyer finished seventh. I see Bowyer improving on that finish and perhaps even taking the checkers.
Pick! Clint Bowyer, No. 33, (+1200)
Sylvania 300 - Odds to Finish in Top Three
Tony Stewart will begin his quest for the Cup in sixth place thanks to winning one race and earning 10 bonus points. This week there are a few Chasers that have the ability to finish in the top three at Loudon, but I am going with momentum and past experience for the Sylvania 300. 'Smoke' finished second in the NHMS June race after starting 25th. Stewart will bring the same chassis, No. 14-587, that he used in the June race. This will be the third start for this particular chassis. The chassis was proved in the wind-tunnel tests at the Milwaukee Mile and should continue to do well for Stewart-Haas Racing. Stewart has three top-10 finishes in his last three races at New Hampshire to go along with his two wins (July '00, July '05), 12 top-five finishes, and 14 top-10s in 23 starts.
Pick! Tony Stewart, No. 14, (+350)
Sylvania 300 - Odds to Finish in Top Three*
New Hampshire Motor Speedway - September 19, 2010 1:15 pm EDT
Jimmie Johnson +120
Kyle Busch +150
Denny Hamlin +150
Kevin Harvick +300
Jeff Burton +350
Tony Stewart +350
Kurt Busch +350
Clint Bowyer +350
Jeff Gordon +350
Juan Pablo Montoya +600
Kasey Kahne +750
Carl Edwards +750
Ryan Newman +900
David Reutimann +900
Jamie McMurray +900
Joey Logano +900
Martin Truex Jr +1000
Greg Biffle +1000
Matt Kenseth +1500
Dale Earnhardt Jr +1500
AJ Allmendinger +1500
Mark Martin +1800
Reed Sorenson +3000
David Ragan +3000
Brad Keselowski +3000
Marcos Ambrose +3000
Sam Hornish Jr +3000
Travis Kvapil +3000
Regan Smith +3000
Paul Menard +3000
Scott Speed +3000
Bobby Labonte +3000
zx Field (Any Other Driver) +3000
Elliott Sadler +3000
Sylvania 300 - Odds to Win*
New Hampshire Motor Speedway - September 19, 2010 1:15 pm EDT
Jimmie Johnson +400
Kyle Busch +500
Denny Hamlin +500
Kevin Harvick +1000
Jeff Gordon +1200
Jeff Burton +1200
Tony Stewart +1200
Kurt Busch +1200
Clint Bowyer +1200
Juan Pablo Montoya +2000
Kasey Kahne +2500
Carl Edwards +2500
Joey Logano +3000
Ryan Newman +3000
Jamie McMurray +3000
David Reutimann +3000
Greg Biffle +3500
Martin Truex Jr +3500
Matt Kenseth +5000
Dale Earnhardt Jr +5000
AJ Allmendinger +5000
Mark Martin +6000
Reed Sorenson +10000
Brad Keselowski +10000
zx Field (Any Other Driver) +10000
Travis Kvapil +10000
Bobby Labonte +10000
Scott Speed +10000
Paul Menard +10000
Regan Smith +10000
Elliott Sadler +10000
Sam Hornish Jr +10000
David Ragan +10000
Marcos Ambrose +10000
*Odds courtesy of Sportsbook.com
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