Juan Pablo Montoya broke his 113-race winless streak last week at Watkins Glen and will try to win on an oval and put together a two-race win streak as NASCAR heads to the Irish Hills and Michigan International Speedway for the Carfax 400 on Sunday, August 15 at 1:15 p.m.

Gamblers looking to place a wager on this race should keep in mind that JPM has one top-10 finish in seven starts at MIS. Sixty three percent, or 52 of 82 races, run at MIS have been won from the top-five starting spots while Ford owns the title for most wins by manufacturer with 31.  

NASCAR Predictions: Who will win the Carfax 400?

Michigan couldn't come at a better time for two drivers that have been relatively quiet and ended up crashing into each other last week at The Glen. Of course I am mean Denny Hamlin and Jimmie Johnson. These guys are two super dangerous drivers when it comes to two-mile tracks.  

What makes the Carfax 400 even more interesting is that of all the drivers currently in the Top 12, Mark Martin, Jeff Gordon, Hamlin, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle, and Tony Stewart, all have at least one win at MIS, so when the race begins you'll have 10 likely contenders to win. Remember that MIS is one of only four tracks that Johnson has never won (0-17, with best finish of third in 2007). But because he hasn't yet doesn't mean he won't soon. 

Hamlin has had three consecutive top-10 finishes at MIS including a huge win in the June race. However, after Watkins Glen he dropped three spots and therefore the once rising driver took the biggest hit this week, falling 338-points behind leader Kevin Harvick, and is now in sixth place. Is it odd that both Johnson's and Hamlin's fortune's have mirrored one another to the point of actually crashing into each other? Both drivers are tied for the lead with five wins in 2010 and will bring 50 bonus points to the Chase. 

Either Johnson or Hamlin should win, right? Here are a few things that make me uneasy about backing either the No. 11 or the No. 48. Johnson has finished outside the top-20 in four of his last five races and has only two top-five finishes in 17 starts. Meanwhile, Hamlin has only notched two top-10 finishes in his last seven races. 

Anything can happen at MIS. It’s a track that produces the odd winner like Brian Vickers last year. MIS rewards speed and you'll generally get a clean race with few cautions. Momentum is rewarded at MIS and no team has more momentum in NASCAR right now than Rousch Fenway Racing. Combine that with the success that Ford has had in the past at Michigan and it makes me give a serious look at Carl Edwards. Edwards has won twice at Michigan in 2007 and 2008 and moved up to ninth place in the standings after finishing fifth (and starting from the pole) at The Glen. This was Edwards’ fifth consecutive top-10 finish, and third top-five finish over that same time span. It's been too long since we've seen his trademark back flip.  

Pick! Carl Edwards, No.99, +1500 

Carfax 400 - Long Odds Lucky Dog

This segment should make Dale Jr. Nation happy as we return to the site of his only victory at MIS, way back in 2008. It has been a long dry run since then and I’m sure somebody has calculated the actual miles Junior has driven since his last win, but I'll contribute it has been 79 races since that win! Fact is, despite Junior's outward lack of enthusiasm for the sport, he has done well at MIS in the past. Junior sports a 10th-place average finish and in the June race he finished seventh. Junior has finished in the top-10 seven of his last 10 races at MIS so I wouldn't be surprised to see him do well and since he is our Lucky Dog pick of the week, perhaps he'll get lucky and win once again with a fuel-mileage gamble.  

Pick! Dale Earnhartd, Jr. No. 88. +4000

Carfax 400 - Top-Three Finish

Coming into Michigan it’s very hard to ignore the stats that Jeff Gordon put up last year on two-mile tracks; Gordon finished second at every one. This year Gordon finished 20th at the Auto Club 500. However, in June at Michigan Gordon finished fourth and recorded his third consecutive top-five finish at MIS. Since then Gordon has had a lot of momentum and relatively quietly notched five top-five and seven top-10 finishes in his last 10 races. Gordon finished 10th last week at The Glen and that was good enough to move the new Dad in second place, 185-points behind Harvick. Ordinarily I advise backing the new Dad in all sports. However, in this case Gordon's wife is in a hotel and not in the trailer any more. And at 3/1 odds you have a great chance of tripling your investment in just about four hours (take that Wall Street).

Last week Marcos Ambrose showed why he is a road course specialist and gave JPM all he could handle for most of race. In fact, Montoya even commented that he thought to himself (about Ambrose), "Why is he trying so hard?" Ambrose, fresh of his third consecutive win at The Glen in the Nationwide Series the day before, rallied from 11th place at lap 60 to second and if it weren't for the last set of tires with 30-laps to go the Wonder from Down Under might have won rather than finishing third. Even though for my wager third was a winner.  

Pick! Jeff Gordon, No. 24, +300 
 
Carfax 400 - Odds to Finish in Top Three*
Michigan International Speedway - August 15, 2010 1:15 p.m.

Jimmie Johnson +120
Denny Hamlin +200
Kurt Busch +250
Jeff Gordon +300
Kyle Busch +300
Tony Stewart +350
Kevin Harvick +350
Jeff Burton +450
Kasey Kahne +450
Greg Biffle +450
Carl Edwards +450
Juan Pablo Montoya +600
Clint Bowyer +600
Matt Kenseth +600
Jamie McMurray +900
Martin Truex Jr +900
David Reutimann +900
Mark Martin +900
Joey Logano +900
Ryan Newman +1200
Dale Earnhardt Jr +1200
AJ Allmendinger +1800
Travis Kvapil +3000
Bobby Labonte +3000
Scott Speed +3000
Paul Menard +3000
Regan Smith +3000
zx Field (Any Other Driver) +3000
Brad Keselowski +3000
Sam Hornish Jr +3000
Reed Sorenson +3000
David Ragan +3000
Marcos Ambrose +3000
Elliott Sadler +3000

Carfax 400 - Odds to Win*
Michigan International Speedway - August 15, 2010 1:15 p.m.

Jimmie Johnson  +400
Denny Hamlin  +700
Kurt Busch +800
Jeff Gordon +1000
Kyle Busch +1000
Kevin Harvick +1200
Tony Stewart +1200
Carl Edwards +1500
Greg Biffle +1500
Kasey Kahne +1500
Jeff Burton +1500
Clint Bowyer +2000
Juan Pablo Montoya +2000
Matt Kenseth +2000
Jamie McMurray +3000
Joey Logano +3000
Martin Truex Jr +3000
David Reutimann +3000
Mark Martin +3000
Dale Earnhardt Jr +4000
Ryan Newman +4000
AJ Allmendinger  +6000
Reed Sorenson +10000
David Ragan  +10000
Marcos Ambrose +10000
Sam Hornish Jr +10000
Brad Keselowski +10000
Regan Smith +10000
Paul Menard +10000
Scott Speed +10000
Bobby Labonte +10000
Travis Kvapil +10000
zx Field (Any Other Driver) +10000
Elliott Sadler +10000

*Odds courtesy of Sportsbook.com