The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series ends its regular season under the lights at Richmond International Raceway for the Air Guard 400 this Saturday night at 8 p.m. EST; and you can bet drivers are going to go all-out for the last 10 bonus points while Clint Bowyer needs to lock-down the 12th and final spot in the Chase for the Sprint Cup at one of the most exciting tracks in NASCAR.

If you are planning on investing in the Air Guard 400 then you should know that the winner at RIR has come from the pole 22 times in 108 races, which is good enough for most from any spot on the grid. The last pole-sitter to win at Richmond was at the Crown Royal in May when Kyle Busch won his second consecutive race at Richmond.

Finally, kudos to Kevin Harvick and his team for absolutely dominating NASCAR this year. But here is what absolutely totally sucks if you are Harvick. He is currently 219-points ahead of his closest competitor and 519-points in front of 12th place. And Harvick's reward for this after Richmond? He will lose all his points and get a demotion to second place in the standings once the Chase begins in New Hampshire. Where is the love, NASCAR?      

Who will win the Air Guard 400?

I have an unshakable feeling that one of three drivers is going to win on Saturday night; Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch or Denny Hamlin. Of the three drivers I think Kyle Busch has the most motivation to go for the season sweep. Having missed the Chase last year by a mere eight-points, the No. 18 team has experienced the bitter disappointment of starting the season strong only to fade at the end.

The good news for Kyle is that he is already locked into the Chase and is now driving for bonus points; only the bonus points count after the points reset. Currently Hamlin and Johnson lead all Chasers with five wins, or 50 bonus points. Busch has three wins this season and his most recent win was two weeks ago at another short-track, Bristol. If Busch can grab another 10 points it would bring his total to 40-points and tie season points leader Kevin Harvick for second place.

Drivers like Johnson and last year’s defending champion, Denny Hamlin, will put a premium on preventing that from happening by trying to win the race as well. Johnson has become much more dangerous on the short-tracks and is the only driver since Richard Petty to win three consecutive races at Richmond. So Johnson sort of knows what he's doing. In fact, it seems like Johnson's sleepy drive through the summer season has been awoken by fall's brisk arrival and suddenly Double-J is back. Johnson finished third at Atlanta and jumped two spots to seventh in the standings.

And, of course, it doesn't really matter where they finish if they don't win since after Saturday night and the points' reset Johnson will either be tied, or in front of, or behind Hamlin. Johnson's has finished outside the top 10 at Richmond his last two races; he was 10th in May and 11th last fall. My best guess is they'll still be tied for first with 50 bonus points each.

Pick! Kyle Busch, (No. 18), +400

Air Guard 400 - Long Odds Lucky Dog

Despite not winning a race in 2010 Jeff Burton has clinched a position in the Chase, just where he'll start will depend upon whether he wins Saturday night or not. However, thanks to his fourth-place finish at Atlanta, Burton moved up one point in the standings and is currently in sixth place. Burton is locked into the Chase despite where he finishes, so he can give the race a hard run. He'll race for his hometown fans as well since this is the track he grew up on (and for the 10 bonus points that could help his bid for the Sprint Cup). Although you'll have to go all the way back to September of 1998 to find his lone win. Burton did finish fourth in May, so the South Boston, VA native is always a threat to win at Richmond. Burton has three top-10 finishes in his last four starts, perhaps he'll add a win to that statistic as well.

Pick! Jeff Burton, (No. 31), +1500

Air Guard 400 - Top-Three Finish

Hamlin finally won at his hometown track last year after starting from the three-hole and he finished third the 2008 fall race. It appears Hamlin's trend has been to do well every other race at Richmond. Hamlin's last three May races at Richmond have ended in double-digit finishes (11, 14, 24) while his last three September races have resulted in single-digit finishes (1, 3, 6). Add to that Hamlin's announcement that Atlanta was his personal start of the Chase and then he goes and blows his engine on lap 143! It didn't matter anyway since Hamlin has made the Chase and with at least five wins will start the Chase from the front of the pack. Looking at Hamlin's track record is one reason why I am going to back him as my top-three finisher on Saturday night; he has four top-five and five top-10 finishes in nine Richmond starts and will be hungry to erase the memory of Atlanta before New Hampshire.

Pick! Denny Hamlin, (No. 11), +180
 
Air Guard 400 - Odds to Finish in Top Three*
Richmond International Raceway - September 11, 2010 8:10 pm EDT

Kyle Busch +120
Jimmie Johnson +180
Denny Hamlin +180
Tony Stewart +300
Jeff Gordon +300
Kevin Harvick +350
Carl Edwards +350
Kurt Busch +450
Jeff Burton +450
Greg Biffle +550
Kasey Kahne +600
Juan Pablo Montoya +750
Clint Bowyer +750
Mark Martin +900
Matt Kenseth +900
Ryan Newman +900
David Reutimann +900
Jamie McMurray +900
Martin Truex Jr +900
Dale Earnhardt Jr +1000
Joey Logano +1200
zx Field (Any Other Driver) +1500
AJ Allmendinger +3000
Marcos Ambrose +3000
Sam Hornish Jr +3000
Elliott Sadler +3000
Regan Smith +3000
Paul Menard +3000
Bobby Labonte +3000
Scott Speed +3000
David Ragan +3000
Reed Sorenson +3000
Travis Kvapil +3000
Brad Keselowski +3000



Air Guard 400 - Odds to Win*
Richmond International Raceway - September 11, 2010 8:10 pm EDT

Kyle Busch +400
Jimmie Johnson +600
Denny Hamlin +600
Tony Stewart +1000
Jeff Gordon +1000
Kevin Harvick +1200
Carl Edwards +1200
Kurt Busch +1500
Jeff Burton +1500
Greg Biffle +1800
Kasey Kahne +2000
Juan Pablo Montoya +2500
Clint Bowyer +2500
Mark Martin +3000
Matt Kenseth +3000
Ryan Newman +3000
David Reutimann +3000
Jamie McMurray +3000
Martin Truex Jr +3000
Dale Earnhardt Jr +3500
Joey Logano +4000
zx Field (Any Other Driver) +5000
AJ Allmendinger +10000
Marcos Ambrose +10000
Sam Hornish Jr +10000
Elliott Sadler +10000
Regan Smith +10000
Paul Menard +10000
Bobby Labonte +10000
Scott Speed +10000
David Ragan +10000
Reed Sorenson +10000
Travis Kvapil +10000
Brad Keselowski +10000


*Odds courtesy of Sportsbook.com

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