Jimmie Johnson won the checkers at Dover last Sunday for his sixth win of the season and, most importantly, cut Denny Hamlin's lead to 35 points heading into Separation Sunday for the Top 12 drivers as NASCAR heads to Kansas Speedway for the Price Chopper 400 on Sunday at 1:16 p.m. EST.

Gamblers investing in the race on Sunday should note that four of the 12 Chasers have wins at Kansas Speedway. Stewart and Gordon have two wins here, tied for the most wins at Kansas, while Greg Biffle and Johnson each have one win. Chevrolet has won the last two consecutive races at Kansas and six of the nine races. Meanwhile, Ford has won twice and Dodge won once back in 2003.

Who will win the Price Chopper 400?

Hamlin had his points lead get cut in half thanks to Johnson's dominant win at Dover last Sunday. Hamlin is now clinging to a 35-point lead that might evaporate after Sunday. Hamlin's recent stats at Kansas leave me wondering if he'll be able to keep pace, considering that he has recorded only one top-10 finish at Kansas in has last five starts. Hamlin's average finish at Kansas is 19.0 and he has not done great on the 1.5-mile tracks this season. Hamlin's best finish at Kansas was fifth.

Out of six intermediate tracks Hamlin has one win at Texas and one eighth-place finish. However, the rest of his finishes have been in the double digits and he finished 43rd at Atlanta. Dover is not his best track either and he finished ninth, so a top-10 finish at Kansas is probably about right on target for Hamlin. Hamlin will need to grab as many points as possible at Kansas to ensure that he has as big a point buffer as possible against Johnson, who will dominate the middle Chase races at Texas, Phoenix, Talladega, and Martinsville.

Meanwhile, Tony Stewart is the defending 2009 race champion and is currently in 10th place and looking at a 162-point deficit with seven races left in the Chase.  Between Gordon and Stewart they own almost half of all the Sprint Cup wins since there have only been nine races on the prairie. The problem with Stewart is that he can't seem to get out of his own way and get some momentum. A 21st-place finish at Dover isn't the way to cut into Hamlin's lead, either. Stewart almost has to win at Kansas if he wants to be a factor for the remainder of the Chase.

Kevin Harvick has become ‘Mr. Irrelevant’ after dominating the entire season before the Chase. Last week Harvick finished 15th and dropped three spots to fifth place, but is still only 56 points out of first place. He has never won at Kansas nor has he ever finished in the top five. Harvick said this week that if he finishes every race in fifth he'll win the Sprint Cup this year. But then, he'll actually have to finish fifth this Sunday to make that happen.
 
There are two drivers I really like to win this week; Carl Edwards and Kyle Busch, and it’s almost a coin flip who I will take, even if one driver is much better than the other at Kansas. The one main reason I am hesitant to pull the trigger on Kyle is his awful performance record at Kansas. Busch only has one top-10 finish in six starts, which has given him an average finish of 24.03. Last October Busch finished at Kansas 12th place for his best result in four years.

Edwards has still not won a race since winning nine times in 2008. However, Edwards needs to build on his fifth-place finish last week at Dover. He gained one spot in the Chase and moved up to sixth place and 73 points out of first place. In six starts at Kansas Edwards has two top-fives and finished this race second in 2008, but last year he finished 10th. While Edwards has never won at Kansas, I wouldn't be too surprised to see him put his Rousch Fenway Ford in the winner's circle and dismount from his No. 99 Aflac vehicle with his customary back flip.   

Pick! Carl Edwards, No.99, +1000

Price Chopper 400 - Long Odds Lucky Dog Pick

For a value bet you can't do better than Biffle at +1000 to win at Kansas, where he has already recorded one win. He is currently in ninth place in the standings and needs to race much better than he has in his last two races. Of course, coming to Kansas might be the tonic that cures since Biffle has done very well in the past at Kansas. In eight starts at Kansas Biffle has five top-fives and no other top-10 finishes. Biffle is also second best at Kansas with an average finish of 9.0. The past two years Biffle has finished this race in third place and on Sunday I think he'll try to improve on that and win outright. If you are looking for better long odds on a driver who is not in the Chase you might want to consider Jamie MacMurray at +2500. He's been great on the intermediate tracks this year and won at Chicagoland, so expect MacMurray to make a bit of noise on Sunday as well. 

Pick! Greg Biffle, No. 16, +1000

Price Chopper 400 - Top Three Finish

This season I have been burned so many times by Jeff Gordon that I hate to pick him to do anything. However, I can't ignore the fact that Gordon's best track in the Chase is Kansas, and if he wants to contend for his fifth Cup he'll need to start winning; especially after dropping four spots in the standings after a poor finish last week at Dover. The good news for Gordon is he is still within striking distance at 83 points behind Hamlin. Gordon won the first two races at Kansas in 2001-02, but has not won since. Gordon has done well on intermediate tracks if you discount Charlotte. At Chicagoland Speedway, the track which most resembles Kansas, Gordon finished third.

Pick! Jeff Gordon, No. 24, (+300)

Price Chopper 400 - Odds to Finish in Top Three*
Kansas Speedway Oct.3, 2010 1:16 pm EDT

Jimmie Johnson even
Kyle Busch +200
Jeff Gordon +300
Greg Biffle +300
Carl Edwards +300
Kevin Harvick +350
Tony Stewart +350
Denny Hamlin +350
Kurt Busch +350
Clint Bowyer +450
Jeff Burton +500
Matt Kenseth +600
Juan Pablo Montoya +750
David Reutimann +750
Jamie McMurray +750
Kasey Kahne +900
Joey Logano +1000
AJ Allmendinger +1000
Martin Truex Jr +1200
Ryan Newman +1200
Dale Earnhardt Jr +2200
Mark Martin +2200
Reed Sorenson +3000
David Ragan +3000
Marcos Ambrose +3000
Elliott Sadler +3000
Regan Smith +3000
Paul Menard +3000
Scott Speed +3000
Bobby Labonte +3000
Travis Kvapil +3000
zx Field (Any Other Driver) +3000
Brad Keselowski +3000
Sam Hornish Jr +3000

Price Chopper 400 - Odds to Win*
Kansas Speedway Oct.3, 2010 1:16 pm EDT

Jimmie Johnson +350
Jeff Gordon +700
Kyle Busch +700
Greg Biffle +1000
Carl Edwards +1000
Kurt Busch +1200
Kevin Harvick +1200
Denny Hamlin +1200
Tony Stewart +1200
Clint Bowyer +1500
Jeff Burton +1800
Matt Kenseth +2000
David Reutimann +2500
Jamie McMurray +2500
Juan Pablo Montoya +2500
Kasey Kahne +3000
AJ Allmendinger +3500
Joey Logano +3500
Ryan Newman +4000
Martin Truex Jr +4000
Mark Martin +7500
Dale Earnhardt Jr +7500
Brad Keselowski +10000
zx Field (Any Other Driver) +10000
Travis Kvapil +10000
Bobby Labonte +10000
Scott Speed +10000
Paul Menard +10000
Regan Smith +10000
Elliott Sadler +10000
Sam Hornish Jr +10000
Marcos Ambrose +10000
Reed Sorenson +10000
David Ragan +10000