NASCAR Picks: AAA TEXAS 500 Odds and Betting Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard - 11/6/2010
Last weekend Jimmie Johnson extended his lead to 14 points over Denny Hamlin, but Kevin Harvick pulled within 38 points of the lead to make it a three-driver sprint with three races remaining in the Chase for the Sprint Cup as NASCAR heads to the Lone Star State and Texas Motor Speedway for the AAA Texas 500 at 3 p.m. this Sunday.
Gamblers looking to invest in the outcome of Sunday's race should know that 14 of 19 races have been won from a top-10 starting position, but Kasey Kahne (2006) is the only driver to win from the pole. Rousch Fenway Racing leads all owners with seven wins at TMS. Carl Edwards has the only season sweep in 2008, but is working on a 69-race winless streak while Jeff Gordon returns to the track where he last won 62-races ago.
NASCAR picks: Who will win the AAA TEXAS 500?
Speaking of Rousch Fenway Racing, it has been a long time since we've seen Carl Edwards, who leads all active drivers at TMS with three wins, well, win. Edwards had done well at TMS with three top-fives and four top-10s, but has an average finish of 17.5 in 11 races. Edwards finished 17th at Talladega last week and his intermediate-track program has not been as strong as it once was, which puts Edwards at risk for continuing his winless streak. Edwards is listed at +350 to finish in the top-three and +1200 to win. Both represent poor investment strategy since past results are not indicative of future performance. I'd lay off Edwards on Sunday.
Clint Bowyer, currently 12th in the Chase and eliminated from contending for the Cup, won his second race of the Chase at Talladega last week. No other driver has won more Chase races than Bowyer. Bowyer is now within 60 points of seventh place and, while he won't win the Cup this year, he can drive himself to the top-10 dinner in Las Vegas at the season's end. Richard Childress Racing dominated the race at ‘Dega and put two drivers in the top two spots (Harvick finished second). What is remarkable about Bowyer's win last week is that he did it without his suspended crew chief Lance Wilson.
Harvick would have a 288-point lead if there was no Chase format going into Texas rather than sitting in third place behind Hamlin and Johnson. However, it can be argued that Harvick has them right where he wants them. There is a ton of pressure on Johnson to win (or not) his fifth consecutive Cup and for Hamlin to finally emerge as the new face of NASCAR. Harvick finished ahead of Hamlin (ninth) and Johnson (seventh) last week. If Harvick can do this for the next three races he'll win the Sprint Cup.
Those are a lot of ‘if's’. Especially going into Texas where Hamlin won earlier this year, Johnson finished second, and Harvick finished behind both of them at a distant seventh. NASCAR's three top drivers at TMS includes Hamlin, with a 9.6 average finish, the best of all active drivers, but just slightly better than Johnson's 10.1 average finish, and Harvick's 12.9 average finish. But for this race I have to back the driver that has a 99.0 driver rating at TMS.
Pick! Jimmie Johnson, No. 48, +350
AAA TEXAS 500 Lucky Dog Long Odds Special
Matt Kenseth moved up two spots to eighth in the Sprint Cup standings yet is still a whopping 324 points out of first place. Kenseth has one win, seven top-fives, 10 top-10s at TMS with second best active driver average finish of 9.9 in 16 races. Kenseth won once in April 2002, and has been a very consistent driver at Texas in the past. In fact, Kenseth was third last November and 20th in April. Kenseth has six top-10 finishes in the last seven races at Texas so a win by the heretofore silent Kenseth would not be as surprising as it is overdue.
Pick! Matt Kenseth, No. 17. +2000
AAA Texas 500 - Top Three Finish
I have been burned this year by Jeff Gordon a few times and after the last time I vowed to put Gordon on a pick hiatus. Something tells me picking Johnson or Hamlin to finish in the top-three is too obvious. Besides, even if both Hamlin and Johnson finish in the top-three there is still room for one more driver. Last April Gordon managed to lead the most laps until he didn't and finished 31st. Even though Gordon is fourth in the standings he is 207 points down with three races remaining. As I mentioned earlier, Gordon's last win came here at Texas in April 2009. He has three races to get his first win or he'll suffer his second consecutive season without a win.
Pick! Jeff Gordon, No. 24, +250
AAA Texas 500 Odds* for Top Three Finish
Texas Motor Speedway - Nov. 7, 3:00 p.m.
Jimmie Johnson +110
Denny Hamlin +180
Kyle Busch +250
Jeff Gordon +250
Tony Stewart +300
Kevin Harvick +300
Kurt Busch +350
Greg Biffle +350
Carl Edwards +350
Jamie McMurray +550
Matt Kenseth +600
Clint Bowyer +600
Jeff Burton +750
Mark Martin +750
Kasey Kahne +750
Juan Pablo Montoya +900
Joey Logano +1200
David Reutimann +1500
Dale Earnhardt Jr +1500
Martin Truex Jr +1500
Ryan Newman +1800
AJ Allmendinger +2200
Aric Almirola +3000
David Ragan +3000
Marcos Ambrose +3000
Sam Hornish Jr +3000
Brad Keselowski +3000
Regan Smith +3000
Paul Menard +3000
Scott Speed +3000
Bobby Labonte +3000
Travis Kvapil +3000
zx Field (Any Other Driver) +3000
Elliott Sadler +3000
AAA Texas 500 Odds* to Win
Texas Motor Speedway - Nov. 7, 3:00 p.m.
Jimmie Johnson +350
Denny Hamlin +600
Jeff Gordon +800
Kyle Busch +800
Tony Stewart +1000
Kevin Harvick +1000
Greg Biffle +1200
Carl Edwards +1200
Kurt Busch +1200
Jamie McMurray +1800
Matt Kenseth +2000
Clint Bowyer +2000
Jeff Burton +2500
Mark Martin +2500
Kasey Kahne +2500
Juan Pablo Montoya +3000
Joey Logano +4000
Dale Earnhardt Jr +5000
Martin Truex Jr +5000
David Reutimann +5000
Ryan Newman +6000
AJ Allmendinger +7500
Travis Kvapil +10000
Bobby Labonte +10000
Scott Speed +10000
Paul Menard +10000
Regan Smith +10000
zx Field (Any Other Driver) +10000
Brad Keselowski +10000
Sam Hornish Jr +10000
Aric Almirola +10000
David Ragan +10000
Marcos Ambrose +10000
Elliott Sadler +10000
*Odds courtesy of Sportsbook.com
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