NASCAR: Lifelock.com 400 Odds Picks and Betting Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard - 7/9/2010
Kevin Harvick is tied with Tony Stewart for most wins at Chicago and will try to build on his 212-point lead over newly minted second-place driver Jeff Gordon (thanks to winning at Daytona last week) as NASCAR heads to Joliet, Illinois for another edition of racing under-the-lights at Chicagoland Speedway for the Lifelock.400 on Saturday July 10 at 7 p.m.
Gamblers interested in investing in the outcome of the race should keep in mind that Johnson is 0-8 at Chicagoland; one of the four Sprint Cup tracks at which Johnson has never won. Johnson's best finish was second in 2004 and 2008. In nine races at Chicagoland the winner has come from the pole exactly once - and that was due to weather rather than the pole winner. In fact, the winner at Chicagoland has come from the top five once and top 10 three times. The 14-spot on the grid has produced two winners, good for the most wins from any starting position. Meanwhile, if you are interested in investing in the manufacturer to win you should know that in nine races Chevrolet has won seven times.
Who will win the Lifelock.com 400?
A lot can happen in a NASCAR year, just ask Mark Martin, the Chicagoland defending champion, who absolutely dominated the race last year by leading 195 of the 267 laps. Martin was also in the top five of the NSCS. This year Martin is fresh off the "big one" at Daytona which caused him to finish 31st and drop out of the Chase, from 11th to 13th, in the standings. This year Martin is still looking for his first win and perhaps will be able to catch lightning in a bottle twice. However, the way Martin's fortunes have gone this season I would say cashing a +3000 ticket on the Old Man to win is highly unlikely.
Conversely, my pick to win last week's Coke 400, Harvick, comes into Chicagoland knowing he has already won at Joliet in 2001-02. In fact, in 2002 he set the track speed record at 136.832 mph winning the race from the 32nd-spot on the grid. Harvick seems to always do well at Chicagoland, even if he isn't always winning there. With five top-five and six top-10 finishes in nine starts, he is well poised to keep and perhaps even increase his NSCS points lead. Either way, the 212 points is more than any one driver can make up in one race so regardless of the outcome Harvick will remain in first place after Chicago.
Harvick won't manage the race on Saturday night either, as Jeff Gordon, who will start his 600th Sprint Cup race at Chicagoland, jumped three spots and moved into second place in the standings last week after finishing third at the Coke 400. Gordon has one pole, one win, five top fives and six top 10s at Chicagoland and will try to shave some points off Harvick's lead this weekend. Gordon finished last year's race in second behind Martin and that marked his second top-two finish in four years. You can back Gordon at +800 if you think he will win the race, but I can't see Gordon doing better than a top-three finish, which would bring down your odds to +240.
Kyle Busch tumbled three spots in the standings from third to sixth and finds himself 308 points behind the leader in the Sprint Cup after he tagged Juan Pablo Montoya last week and finished at Daytona in 40th place. That’s not the result Kyle was hoping for after leading the Coke 400 for 23 laps. The younger Busch has notched one win (2008) and a third in 2006 but has no other top 10s at Chicagoland. Last year Busch finished a disappointing 33rd after sweeping the weekend in 2008 (Busch won the Nationwide race as well). On Saturday night Busch will be driving his usual Toyota and if you are keeping track Toyota has only won once at Chicago so I am not advising a play at +700 on Kyle.
Tony Stewart is the only other driver to win twice at Chicagoland (2004 and '07). Stewart is currently in ninth place in the standings despite wrecking at Daytona and finishing 25th last week. Stewart always seems to do well at Joliet with seven top-five finishes in nine starts! Stewart finished fourth last year, which increased his streak of top-five finishes at Chicagoland to three. Keep in mind that, historically, Stewart has not qualified well at Chicagoland, but makes up spots during the race to finish with the lead pack. However, Stewart hasn't had the greatest sophomore year as owner-operator of Stewart-Haas Racing, but perhaps this weekend he'll be able to crack victory lane for the first time in 2010.
In case you have not noticed a trend this season there have already been five back-to-back race winners; Johnson's pair of wins to start the season at California and Las Vegas were followed by Kurt Busch's wins at the All Star Race and Coca Cola 600 at Charlotte, then there was Denny Hamlin winning at Pocono and Michigan followed by Johnson once again at Infineon and then New Hampshire. Last week Harvick won the Coke 400 will he be the sixth back-to-back race winner of the season?
Pick! Tony Stewart, No. 14, (+2000)
Lifelock.com 400 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special
Chicagoland is a homecoming of sorts for Matt Kenseth who hails from Cambridge, Wisc. He has done well in the past but finished outside the top 10 at Chicagoland last year for the first time in three years. The two previous years Kenseth finished second in 2008 and seventh in 2007. Kenseth is currently seventh in the Sprint Cup standings and did not move after finishing 15th last week after he got involved with the 19-car pile-up. However, Kenseth sports the third best driver rating of 107.8 and has an average finish of 11.2 at Chicagoland. He has two top fives and four top 10s at the 1.5-mile course. Keep in mind that he has never won at Chicagoland but has come close several times. Kenseth's team is bringing a new chassis to Joliet on Saturday with the same set-up they used at Happy Hour for Michigan. This set-up tested well then and with Kenseth's natural ability and skill on the 1.5-mile tracks I wouldn't be surprised to see him challenge for the win on Saturday night.
Pick! Matt Kenseth, No. 17, (+2500)
Who will finish in the Top Three at Lifelock.com 400?
Johnson finished 31st at Daytona and dropped one spot to third in the NSCS standings behind teammate Gordon. Johnson led for all of one lap at Daytona before the spectacular wreck on lap 149. This week Johnson will look to avoid wrecks and try to continue. As stated earlier, I won't be backing No. 48 to win on Saturday night. But that doesn't mean you should ignore Johnson at Chicagoland either. Johnson has five top fives and seven top 10s and sports the best average finish (8.1) at Chicagoland of all active drivers. Johnson finished eighth last year and second in 2008. Chicagoland is definitely on Jimmie's to-do list. This week, though, it might be all about the "Honey Do" list for Chandra. Last week I narrowly missed a column sweep as I picked Dale Junior to finish in the top-three at Daytona and Junior finished fourth.
Pick! Jimmie Johnson, No. 48, (Even)
Lifelock.com 400 -
Odds to finish the Top-Three
Chicagoland Speedway - 7:46 p.m. July 10, 2010
Jimmie Johnson
even
Denny Hamlin
+180
Kyle Busch
+200
Jeff Gordon
+240
Kurt Busch
+300
Kevin Harvick
+350
Jeff Burton
+350
Kasey Kahne
+450
Clint Bowyer
+600
Tony Stewart
+600
Carl Edwards
+750
Matt Kenseth
+750
Greg Biffle
+750
Juan Pablo Montoya
+750
Jamie McMurray
+900
Joey Logano
+900
Dale Earnhardt Jr
+900
Mark Martin
+900
Martin Truex Jr
+1200
Ryan Newman
+1200
David Reutimann
+1200
AJ Allmendinger
+1800
Brad Keselowski
+2200
David Ragan
+3000
Marcos Ambrose
+3000
Sam Hornish Jr
+3000
zx Field (Any Other Driver)
+3000
Regan Smith
+3000
Paul Menard
+3000
Scott Speed
+3000
Bobby Labonte
+3000
Reed Sorenson
+3000
Travis Kvapil
+3000
Elliott Sadler
+3000
Lifelock.com 400 -
Odds to Win
Chicagoland Speedway - 7:46 p.m. July 10, 2010
Jimmie Johnson
+350
Denny Hamlin
+600
Kyle Busch
+700
Jeff Gordon
+800
Kurt Busch
+1000
Kevin Harvick
+1200
Jeff Burton
+1200
Kasey Kahne
+1500
Clint Bowyer
+2000
Tony Stewart
+2000
Carl Edwards
+2500
Matt Kenseth
+2500
Greg Biffle
+2500
Juan Pablo Montoya
+2500
Jamie McMurray
+3000
Joey Logano
+3000
Dale Earnhardt Jr
+3000
Mark Martin
+3000
Martin Truex Jr
+4000
Ryan Newman
+4000
David Reutimann
+4000
AJ Allmendinger
+6000
Brad Keselowski
+7500
David Ragan
+10000
Marcos Ambrose
+10000
Sam Hornish Jr
+10000
zx Field (Any Other Driver)
+10000
Regan Smith
+10000
Paul Menard
+10000
Scott Speed
+10000
Bobby Labonte
+10000
Reed Sorenson
+10000
Travis Kvapil
+10000
Elliott Sadler
+10000
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