Jimmie Johnson will try to win his third consecutive Sprint Cup race on Sunday at 3:15 p.m. as NASCAR heads to wicked fast Atlanta Motor Speedway for the Kobalt Tools 500. In case you hadn’t noticed, driving fast is something Johnson does very well.

Stock car racing investors should keep in mind that while JJ has been unbeatable lately, his ride, Chevrolet, has not won at AMS in two years. I advise waiting until after qualifying since you can tilt the odds in your favor with this little nugget. The last nine spring races at AMS have been won from within the top 10 on the starting grid and 16 of the last 19 races at AMS have been won from inside the top 10. 
 
Who will win the Kobalt Tools 500?
Jeff Gordon led for most of last Sunday’s Shelby American 500 only to see the No. 48 zip past him and take the checkers while the No. 24 car had to settle for third behind points leader Kevin Harvick.

Harvick has been almost as impressive as Johnson after three races with a seventh and two second-place finishes. Harvick brings an 82.4 driver rating into AMS – a place that has been less than kind to Harvick backers despite his second-place finish last year and his lone win in his rookie season in 2001. Harvick came in seventh in 2008 but has otherwise always finished in double-digits at AMS. This week I am going to bypass Harvick even though he has been running lights out for Richard Childress Racing.

Don’t look now but wunderkind Joey Logano moved up one spot in the standings to eighth place thanks to finishing fifth and sixth the past two weeks. The good news early in the season for Joe Gibbs Racing is that Logano had one of the best cars at Vegas last Sunday, but the bad news is that his inexperience cost him a better finish. He’ll need to work on that before I back him on a consistent basis.

Which bring me to Denny Hamlin. Denny who? Hamlin, the heir apparent, now resides at No. 22 in the Sprint Cup standings after another dismal race at Las Vegas. Hamlin has yet to finish a race inside the top 10 this season and he doesn’t race well in Atlanta in March. Hamlin, meanwhile, has done little to inspire confidence in his decision to postpone the medical procedure on his injured knee until after the season; I am staying far away from Hamlin until his situation is clearer. 

At what point does betting on JJ to win every race of the season become a good strategy? Of course if you start now then you only missed two races. Two races! Some drivers would kill for two wins in 60 races (and counting Dale Junior). At any rate. I think at this point in the season if you adopted that strategy I can’t see how you wouldn’t at least break even if you bet the same amount on each race. I know I let a mythical axle problem sway my confidence in all things Hendrick Motorsports, but I won’t make that mistake again.

Meanwhile, Carl Edwards is probably flying to AMS sans wife and child just to get some sleep. It has been a tough 10 days and only the soothing roar of a finely tuned precision engine will make that baby-screaming go away. Yeah, but he’s still tired from not getting any sleep. Edwards should run well in this race, but I wouldn’t expect to seem him doing the back-flip just yet.

Once again Johnson will race at a track that suits his driving talents. Johnson has already won at AMS three times has an average finish of 10.3 and 11 top-10 finishes. Johnson loves intermediate tracks and will no doubt stomp the track in his usual fashion so getting +430 on your unit investment isn’t a bad way to go. 

Pick! Jimmie Johnson, (No. 48), +430 

Kobalt Tools 500 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special

It is clear that the oddsmakers handicapping NASCAR have been forced by JJ’s dominance to adjust the lines in kind. It is only natural, but tough on the recreational Sunday stock car enthusiast looking to parlay a sawbuck on a 40/1 long odds driver. It is a sad day when 18/1 is as long as I’ll go. Certainly you understand the terms of long odds, but inherent in this is that while the driver is long odds, it is in the realm of possibility that they could actually win or at least have the decency to go out in a spectacular wreck to kill the dream. Am I right or am I right? This week I love Matt Kenseth in any spot in this column; to win SU, to come in the top three and here. Kenseth has quietly had a really good early season finishing in the top 10 in the past three races this season. He has also done well in the past at AMS despite his two 12th-place finishes last year. Before that Kenseth had four top fives at AMS, which is why he is my Lucky Dog this weekend. 
 
Pick! Matt Kenseth, (No. 17), +1800

Kobalt Tools 500 - Odds to Finish in the Top 3

Kurt Busch dropped eight spots in the Sprint Cup standings after Las Vegas and will head to a track where he could move back up the standings just as easily. The Dodges dominated last year at AMS with Kurt Busch coming into this race as defending champion and Kasey Kahne taking the fall race. Last year Busch led six times for 246 laps and put the ‘Blue Deuce’ in the top 12 in the Chase early in the season. Busch has one other win at AMS back when it was the NAPA 500 in 2002.  Busch won from the eight spot on the grid in the NAPA 500; true to the AMS trend of winners starting within the top 10. Busch has six top-10 finishes and has the ability to win and with how well he’s been getting along with Crew Chief, Steve Addington, I expect to see him on the lead lap on Sunday. Last week Busch won the pole at LVMS but somehow that speed did not translate to the Shelby American as the ‘Blue Deuce’ steadily lost ground the entire race, finishing 35th. Busch is currently 19th in the Sprint Cup standings and, like last year, could use a good finish to put him back into the top 10.

Pick!  Kurt Busch, No. 2, +350

Kobalt Tools 500 Odds to finish in Top 3 at *

Jimmie Johnson           +130     
Jeff Gordon                +250    
Mark Martin                +250    
Kyle Busch                 +300    
Jeff Burton                  +350    
Kevin Harvick             +350    
Clint Bowyer              +350    
Kurt Busch                  +350    
Denny Hamlin             +450    
Greg Biffle                  +450    
Carl Edwards              +450    
Tony Stewart              +450    
Juan Pablo Montoya    +450    
Matt Kenseth              +500    
Kasey Kahne               +550    
Brian Vickers              +900    
Joey Logano                +900    
Dale Earnhardt Jr        +900    
Ryan Newman                        +1200              
Martin Truex Jr           +1800              
David Reutimann        +1800              
Jamie McMurray         +2200              
Sam Hornish Jr            +3000              
Marcos Ambrose         +3000              
Brad Keselowski         +3000              
David Ragan               +3000              
zx Field                       +3000              
Travis Kvapil               +3000              
Scott Speed                 +3000              
Regan Smith               +3000              
Bobby Labonte           +3000  
AJ Allmendinger         +3000              
Elliott Sadler               +3000              
Paul Menard                +3000

*Odds courtesy of sportsbook.com
           
Odds to win Kobalt Tools 500*

Jimmie Johnson           +450     
Mark Martin                +800    
Jeff Gordon                +800    
Kyle Busch                 +1000              
Jeff Burton                  +1200              
Kevin Harvick             +1200              
Clint Bowyer              +1200              
Kurt Busch                  +1200              
Greg Biffle                  +1500              
Carl Edwards              +1500              
Tony Stewart              +1500              
Juan Pablo Montoya   +1500              
Denny Hamlin             +1500              
Matt Kenseth              +1800              
Kasey Kahne               +1800              
Brian Vickers              +3000              
Dale Earnhardt Jr        +3000              
Joey Logano                +3000              
Ryan Newman                        +4000              
David Reutimann        +6000              
Martin Truex Jr           +6000              
Jamie McMurray         +7500              
AJ Allmendinger         +10000            
Elliott Sadler               +10000            
Paul Menard                +10000            
Bobby Labonte           +10000            
Regan Smith               +10000            
Scott Speed                 +10000            
Travis Kvapil               +10000            
zx Field                       +10000            
Marcos Ambrose         +10000             
Brad Keselowskii        +10000            
David Ragan               +10000            
Sam Hornish Jr            +10000                      

*Odds courtesy of Bodog