After a one-week hiatus the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series returns to Bristol Motor Speedway for short-track racing at its finest for the Food City 500 this Sunday March, 21 at 1:13 p.m. EST for the Food City 500.

Gamblers should keep in mind that Bristol is one of six tracks that Jimmie Johnson has never won at. Johnson is 0-16, but his best finish at the historic racetrack was third last March. This probably accounts for the fact that for the first time this season Jimmie Johnson is not listed as the favorite to win a NASCAR race

Who will win the Food City 500?

The main thing you have to know about this year’s edition of the Food City 500 is that due to safety considerations an already narrow track is narrower. BMS has installed new safer barriers for the season and that will bring the wall that much closer for drivers, making passing more difficult than in the past and this should put a premium on track position as we have never seen before.

Last year Mark Martin swept the pole in both races while Kyle Busch won back-to-back races.  It appears that oddsmakers have put Kyle (+700) and Martin (+1000) the first and second favorites on the strength of recent past-performance, rather than the outcomes of this season’s races and, likewise, they listed Hamlin (+700) as the co-favorite.

Of the three drivers (Busch has won at Bristol three times and Martin twice) it is Hamlin who has always been the bridesmaid but never the bride. Aside from Johnson, Hamlin is one of the best racers to have never won at Bristol. Hamlin will be looking for his fifth straight top-six finish; in his last four races Hamlin has finished sixth, third, second and fifth. However, Hamlin hasn’t had a great season so far and has yet to finish in single digits (let alone the top-15) so I am not holding my breath for any magic from Hamlin.

In case you didn’t notice for the first time in four races this season Hendrick Motorsports was left out of the top 10 at Atlanta Motor Speedway (of course this was after Earnhardt, Jr. started the race as the pole-sitter).

If you are planning on investing in the Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway you should definitely wait until qualifiers to invest in this race. Here is why: 57 of 98, or 52.8 percent, of races at Bristol have been won from the first five spots on the grid. But if you complete the third row by adding the sixth spot (from which nine wins have come) then two-thirds of all races at Bristol have been won from the top-six starting positions. It will behoove you to wait until after qualifiers to see who starts where for the Food City 500 and then bet accordingly.  

Due to deadline considerations I do not have the luxury to wait for qualifiers, so when I make my pick to win among the many factors I consider is who I think will qualify well and start from in front of the grid. That said, I am hoping for qualifiers to get rained out (won’t happen) since my pick to win is in first place in the NSCS standings. If you overlook 2009 anomalous finishes of 30th and 38th you’ll see that Harvick has been solid at Bristol. In 2008 he had two consecutive top-five finishes and has won the March race in 2005.  Along with his one win in NSCS Harvick has notched five wins in the Nationwide Series at Bristol. Richard Childress Racing seems like they are on the upswing, which is why I like Harvick to win at BMS on Sunday.

Pick! Kevin Harvick, No. 29, (+1200)

Food City 500 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special

Since his second-place (start and) finish at the Daytona 500, Junior has finished 32nd, 15th, and 16th. Two weeks ago Junior started fourth at the Shelby American only to finish 15th and last week he started the Kobalt Tools 500 from the pole and steadily lost ground throughout the race, finishing 16th. So he has been qualifying well and at Bristol qualifying is everything. If Junior can start from a top spot on the grid he will be hard to beat; and perhaps he won’t add another race to the winless streak. In 20 starts at Bristol Junior has seven top-fives and 11 top-10 finishes. Last week’s Lucky Dog pick almost won the Kobalt Tools 500 outright. Matt Kenseth was set at 18/1 to win and as I said that was about as far odds as I wanted to bet on the race. Kenseth’s team ran a great race and finished at AMS in second place. Kenseth is also currently in second place in the Sprint Cup standings. Keep in mind, though, that Kenseth came out strong early last season and look where that got him.
 
Pick!  Dale Earnhardt, Jr., No. 88, (+2000)

Food City 500 - Odds to Finish in the Top 3

Last week’s pick in this spot was Kurt Busch and he eventually won the Kobalt Tools 500 and paid off a handsome +350. However, the +1200 you would have earned backing the ‘Blue Deuce’ to win outright would have been even better. But I am not complaining as a win is a win. Kurt Busch is once again set at +350 to finish in the top three at one of his best tracks. At Bristol Busch has won half of his starts, or five times since his first race in 2001 and has another five top-10 finishes along with his five wins. However, last March Kurt finished 11th in March and seventh in August. Kurt is now in 10th place in the Sprint Cup standings and 142 points out from first place. Back-to-back top-three finishes could propel Busch into the upper echelons of the standings. The way the No. 2 car has been running I think it is a great play to ride shot-gun.

Pick!  Kurt Busch, No.2, (+350)

Odds to finish in Top 3 at Food City 500*

Kyle Busch +200
Denny Hamlin +200
Jimmie Johnson +300
Mark Martin +300
Jeff Gordon +300
Jeff Burton +350
Kurt Busch +350
Kevin Harvick +350
Clint Bowyer +350
Tony Stewart +350
Carl Edwards +450
Greg Biffle +450
Juan Pablo Montoya +550
Kasey Kahne +550
Dale Earnhardt Jr +600
Matt Kenseth +600
Ryan Newman            +600
Joey Logano +1200
Marcos Ambrose +1500
Martin Truex Jr +1800
David Ragan +1800
Jamie McMurray +1800
David Reutimann +1800       
Brian Vickers  +2200 
Scott Speed +3000    
Sam Hornish Jr +3000           
AJ Allmendinger +3000        
Elliott Sadler +3000
Travis Kvapil +3000
Bobby Labonte +3000
Regan Smith +3000
zx Field (Any Other Driver) +3000
Brad Keselowski +3000
Paul Menard    +3000
           
*Odds courtesy of Sportsbook.com
           
Odds to win Food City 500*

Kyle Busch +700
Denny Hamlin +700
Mark Martin +1000
Jeff Gordon +1000
Jimmie Johnson +1000
Kurt Busch +1200
Jeff Burton +1200
Kevin Harvick +1200
Clint Bowyer +1200
Tony Stewart +1200
Carl Edwards +1500
Greg Biffle +1500
Juan Pablo Montoya +1800
Kasey Kahne +1800
Ryan Newman            +2000
Matt Kenseth +2000
Dale Earnhardt Jr +2000
Joey Logano +4000
Marcos Ambrose +5000
Jamie McMurray +6000
David Ragan +6000
David Reutimann +6000
Martin Truex Jr +6000
Brian Vickers +7500
Bobby Labonte +10000
Paul Menard +10000
Elliott Sadler +10000
AJ Allmendinger +10000
zx Field (Any Other Driver) +10000
Brad Keselowski +10000
Scott Speed +10000
Travis Kvapil   +10000
Regan Smith +10000
Sam Hornish Jr +10000
           

*Odds courtesy of Sportsbook.com