NASCAR: Coca-Cola 600 Odds and Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard - 5/27/2010
Kurt Busch is $1 million richer after winning the Sprint All-Star Race last weekend. Now he will try to tame the 'Beast of the Southeast' in NASCAR's 400-lap endurance test known as the Coca-Cola 600 on Sunday, May 30, 6:16 p.m. EST at Charlotte Motor Speedway.
Gamblers should know that six times in NASCAR history has the winner of the All-Star Race won the Coca-Cola 600 in the same season: Darrell Waltrip (1985), Davey Allison (1991), Dale Earnhardt (1993), Jeff Gordon (1997), Jimmie Johnson (2003), and Kasey Kahne (2008).
Who will win the Coca-Cola 600?
Last year's Coca-Cola 600 ended after only 222 laps and David Reutimann won the race thanks to Rodney Childers decision not to pit once it started raining on lap 222. Reutimann led for five whole laps and was declared the winner; hardly the endurance challenge NASCAR fans have come to expect from the Coca-Cola 600. Ryan Newman finished the race second after starting the race as the pole sitter.
This year the weather is expected to hold in Concord, North Carolina and chances are good that the race will go the entire 600 miles on the 1.5-mile oval. If Reutimann hopes to repeat as Coca-Cola 600 winner he'll join elite company as there have been only seven back-to-back winners: Johnson (2003-05), Jeff Gordon (1997-98), Dale Earnhardt (1992-93), Darrell Waltrip (1988-89), Neil Bonnett (1982-83), Darrell Waltrip (1978-79), Buddy Baker (1972-73).
Keep in mind that the first three spots on the starting grid have accounted for 42 wins in 102 races at Charlotte. The last time a pole sitter won at Charlotte was Johnson, who won from green-to-checkers last October. The win gave Chevrolet their 37th win at Charlotte Motor Speedway; the most of any manufacture in NASCAR.
Going into the Coca Cola 600 Kevin Harvick remains the points leader and Johnson has dropped two spots after speeding on pit-row cost him the victory at Dover two weeks ago. The beneficiary was Kyle Busch, who moved into second place, 69-points behind Harvick, thanks to winning at Dover. Matt Kenseth jumped two spots to third and Denny Hamlin moved up one spot to round out the current top-five Sprint Cup leaders.
Drivers I am avoiding this Sunday include Harvick, who has never won at Charlotte and has only one top-five and three top-10 finishes in 18 starts. Hamlin doesn't represent any real value either as he has never finished in the top-five, let alone won at CMS. Last year Hamlin finished the May race 11th and the October race 42nd.
This weekend is all about Jimmie Johnson, who is suddenly in a points standing free-fall as he tumbled to 131-points out of the lead. But Johnson fans can take solace that no current driver is better than Johnson at CMS. In fact, Johnson is tied with Darrell Waltrip with six all-time wins and he could possibly notch No. 7 this Sunday. At last week's All-Star Race Johnson's car was clearly the fastest by a few seconds. Once the No. 48 got going not even Kyle Busch or McMurray could keep pace. Looking back at Dover, which sets the tone for Charlotte, Johnson is clearly in great shape to win this Sunday. He dominated Dover by leading 225 laps. I see Johnson leading that many laps at the Coca-Cola 600 (and then some).
Pick! Jimmie Johnson, No. 48, (+300)
Coca-Cola 600 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special
Despite winning the Daytona 500 and notching three top-five finishes this year, Jamie McMurray finds himself on the outside looking in when it comes to the Chase for the Sprint Cup. He is currently in 17th place and 188-points behind Martin Truex, Jr. for 12th place. McMurray actually won his first Sprint Cup race at Charlotte in 2002. It has been reported that his Earnhardt-Ganassi cars were very fast during testing. Last week McMurray was in the lead pack for most of the All-Star Race until he got wrecked in the fourth segment and finished the race 18th. McMurray at times this season has looked very fast and if last week was a preview of what it will be like for McMurray running on the same set-up on the same track I'll back him as my Lucky Dog Long Odds pick.
Pick! Jamie McMurray, No. 1, (+3000)
Coca-Cola 600 - Odds to Finish in the Top 3
There are a few HMS drivers that I am leaning toward in this spot, but in the end Joe Gibbs Racing's Busch won out as this week's pick to finish in the top-three at the Coca-Cola 600. What I like about Busch is that he seems to get better at Charlotte each year. In his last eight races at Charlotte, Busch has managed to string together five straight top-10 finishes. Busch finished sixth last year and eighth at the Bank of America 500 in October. Busch had a great set-up last year when rain prematurely ended the race. Watching the All-Star Race last weekend Busch's car was one of the fastest on the track but it still lagged a second or two behind Johnson's No. 48, which is why I like Busch to finish in the top-three rather than win the race outright.
Pick! Kyle Busch, No. 16, (+200)
Odds to finish in Top 3 at Coca-Cola 600*
Charlotte Motor Speedway - May 30, 6:16 p.m.
AJ Allmendinger +3000
Brad Keselowski +1500
Carl Edwards +600
Casey Mears +3000
Clint Bowyer +600
Dale Earnhardt Jr +900
David Gilliland +3000
David Ragan +3000
David Reutimann +1500
Denny Hamlin +240
Elliott Sadler +3000
Greg Biffle +600
Jamie McMurray +900
Jeff Burton +450
Jeff Gordon +180
Jimmie Johnson +120
Joey Logano +600
Juan Montoya +750
Kasey Kahne +600
Kevin Harvick +450
Kurt Busch +350
Kyle Busch +200
Marcos Ambrose +3000
Mark Martin +600
Martin Truex Jr +1200
Matt Kenseth +600
Paul Menard +3000
Regan Smith +3000
Ryan Newman +900
Sam Hornish Jr +3000
Scott Speed +3000
Tony Stewart +600
Travis Kvapil +3000
zx Field (Any Other Driver) +1500
*Odds courtesy of Sportsbook.com
Odds to win the Coca-Cola 600*
Charlotte Motor Speedway - May 30, 6:16 p.m.
AJ Allmendinger +1000
Bill Elliott +2000
Bobby Labonte +1500
Brad Keselowski +4000
Carl Edwards +2200
Casey Mears 10000
Clint Bowyer +2500
Dale Earnhardt Jr. +3000
David Gilliland +15000
David Ragan +10000
David Reutimann +5000
David Stremme +25000
Denny Hamlin +800
Elliott Sadler +10000
Greg Biffle +2000
J.J. Yeley +25000
Jamie McMurray +3000
Jeff Burton +3000
Jeff Gordon +1500
Jimmie Johnson +300
Joey Logano +2000
Juan Pablo Montoya +2500
Kasey Kahne +2000
Kevin Conway +30000
Kevin Harvick +1500
Kurt Busch +1000
Kyle Busch +700
Marcos Ambrose +10000
Mark Martin +1600
Martin Truex Jr. +3000
Matt Kenseth +2000
Max Papis +30000
Mike Bliss +25000
Paul Menard +10000
Reed Sorenson +20000
Regan Smith +15000
Robby Gordon +25000
Ryan Newman +3500
Sam Hornish Jr +10000
Scott Speed +15000
Todd Bodine +30000
Tony Stewart +1800
Travis Kvapil +15000
*Odds courtesy of Bodog
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